LNC - Linc Energy

[basilio]

That Alaskan field seems like a HUGE deal. 1 Billion barrels of oil... potentially. Certainly around 200-400 MB already

Cost price seemed relatively peanuts ($50M) while of course development costs will be much greater. It will be interesting to see how long it takes for the market to recognise the possibility that LNC has a very big upside in 1-3 years and seemingly a very small downside at the current SP.

 

[Jonathan111]

Metallurgical coal production in Australia is dominated by an alliance between BHP Billiton and Mitsubishi , which yields more than 58 million tonnes per year and accounts for about a fifth of global trade.

Narayanan said India was prepared to compete against other foreign interests with strong government backing, particularly from China, for mines in Australia, the world's largest supplier of metallurgical coal.

http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFL3E7I41VY20110705?sp=true




Around 30 global coal companies are keen to secure port capacity at Queensland's Abbot Point terminal by participating in a A$6.2bn ($6.6bn) expansion program, the state government revealed on Tuesday
http://www.steelbb.com/us/?PageID=157&article_id=94715


Gillard to release her plan now.

 

[dogeatdog]

This article, although not directly related to Linc energy, maybe interesting to those non Australian based investors.

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/Bid-Australian-coal-miner-reuters_molt-3060458321.html;_ylt=Al.k14rmUCoTiHmGQzE.L7vSr7FG;_ylu=X3oDMTE4OTE5Nm9pBHBvcwM3BHNlYwN5ZmlUb3BTdG9yaWVzBHNsawNiaWRmb3JhdXN0cmE-?x=0

Hopefully the release of the carbon tax details, will help clear the way for Linc's next coal tenement sale, very soon

LNC Holder

 

[basilio]

Well certainly the bid for Macarther Coal suggests that Australian coal resources will still be in demand. Hopefully this is concentrating the minds of competing bidders for the Teresa bidders.

Hopefully sooner rather than later.

It's interesting to reflect back around 12 months ago just prior to the Galilee sale. There was a sharp increase in SP before the sale from $1.00 to around $1.80. Then when the sale was announced - around $3b value and essentially guaranteeing LNC's financial future - the shares actually dropped. Despite all the "analysis" which valued LNC at $3 + with the confirmed sale it rarely reached those levels and retreated under pressure

Since then there have been a number of very big announcements regarding new oil fields in Wyoming and Alaska, the opportunities for increasing oil yields via CO2 injection and now the seeming imminent announcement of another substantial coal sale worth at least $500m ($1 per share) . Yet the SP stands less than $1 over the price just before the Galilee coal sale !! Surely the value has to be seen soon.

 

[Jonathan111]

Well certainly the bid for Macarther Coal suggests that Australian coal resources will still be in demand. Hopefully this is concentrating the minds of competing bidders for the Teresa bidders.

PB talks about the last sale...

PB should write a book about his philosophy and his experiences.

http://www.maddisons.com.au/blog/pe...boardroom-series-in-the-zone-with-peter-bond/

 

[Mickel]

US broker Madison Williams states in their updated research report, discussing the cancelled ERG Resources contract, that the-

"Deal could still materialize eventually. The developments present three
scenarios for how things might play out going forward.
1. ERG could potentially cure the defects, allowing the deal to eventually
proceed.
2. The companies could part ways amicably.
3. The dispute could result in litigation over the modest initial deposit."

They confirm that their 12 mth price target remains unchanged at $3.50 but would be rerated on a coal tenement sale and/or other drilling news, upstream US activities incl the possible eventual purchase of the ERG asset.

http://www.madisonwilliams.com/images/OTCQX/Linc Energy July 20, 2011 Research Report.pdf

The LNC S/P has risen from $2.76 on 18/7 to currently $2.91 today. Of course the ASX has also risen strongly this week- All Ords (XAO) 136 pts to 4677 at present.

 

[bloubul]

"Deal could still materialize eventually. The developments present three
scenarios for how things might play out going forward.
1. ERG could potentially cure the defects, allowing the deal to eventually
proceed.
2. The companies could part ways amicably.
3. The dispute could result in litigation over the modest initial deposit."

It seems that none of the above 3 is going to happen.

I can't find any details as to the real reasons behind the termination of contracts but ERG must have really pi$$ed PB off when Linc did the due dilligence.

This could turn nasty and I hope it's settled quickly so it doesn't have any adverse impact on SP.

 

[dogeatdog]

It seems that none of the above 3 is going to happen.

I can't find any details as to the real reasons behind the termination of contracts but ERG must have really pi$$ed PB off when Linc did the due dilligence.

This could turn nasty and I hope it's settled quickly so it doesn't have any adverse impact on SP.

http://www.lincenergy.com/data/asxpdf/ASX-LNC-339.pdf
An unwanted distraction, which seems to have knocked the sp back today

LNC holder.

 

[basilio]

Starting to get impatient with the non-announcement of the Teresa coal sale. As the economic clouds darken having a healthy bank account to finance the oil/ coal- oil and other developments would give everyone a safer feeling.

And there certainly isn't any sense that the broader share market is holding LNC as a quality share in the past few days.

 

[dogeatdog]

Oh dear!
Linc down 14% as I write.
Inevitable I guess following the US close last night.
And I thought I was getting a bargain with a recent purchase at 2.61:bonk:
I guess we are in for a rough ride with long positions.

LNC holder

 

[Starcraftmazter]

Been following this one. Good time to buy in, yeh?

 

[basilio]

Looks like the ERG oil deal is back on the table. Be good to see some decent cash flow in the foreseeable future.


http://newsstore.fairfax.com.au/app...get_prices=Get+prices+&+charts&code=lnc&f=pdf

 

[basilio]

Big news day for LINC...! Update on Teresa coal sale to remind the market there should be $500m plus coming to account in the short term. Now down to 4 final bidders.

Other interesting news is that AFC (Alkaline Fuel cell) in UK has just announced completion of the HAZOP procedures for its beta fuel cell. That suggests there could be commercial production projects in the near future. LNC has 12.5% of AFC as well as an interest in using the fuel cell for producing emission free electricity via its UCG produced syngas

http://www.lincenergy.com/data/asxpdf/ASX-LNC-342.pdf
http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:AFC.L

 

[basilio]

LNC has posted an update from Madison Williams to remind the market of it's cash position, near term sale of Teresa and wide range of projects. Obviously hasn't had any impact in the current market.

It does concern me that there isn't enough institutional nous and analysis to slow down LINC's share collapse. For example a very small company like MAD is falling but nowhere near as dramatically. There seems to be a core of investors who are recognising it's value and buying in. Not sure if any other shares are in a similar position.

http://www.madisonwilliams.com/images/OTCQX/Linc Energy August 8, 2011 Research Report.pdf

 

[basilio]

( Am I creating embarrassing records for consecutive posts on a thread? )

AFC has just announced the successful commissioning of it's first Beta cell hydrogen fuel cell. The company is conducting testing and development work on the cells in support of commercialization and is deploying additional beta systems with collaborative partners like AkoNobel.

AFC has jumped from 36p to 49 p in the past few days on news on the completion of hazard tests and successful commissioning of the Beta cell

LNC has 12.5% of AFC and also holds the rights to market the fuel cells for use with UCG projects around the world. It offers the opportunity of creating flexible, baseload, cost effective , CO2 free electricity wherever they can source appropriate underground coal deposits.

I think this is big..

http://www.afcenergy.com/news/latest_news/first_fuelcell_commissioned.html

 

[Mickel]

LNC has 12.5% of AFC and also holds the rights to market the fuel cells for use with UCG projects around the world. It offers the opportunity of creating flexible, baseload, cost effective , CO2 free electricity wherever they can source appropriate underground coal deposits.

I think this is big..

http://www.afcenergy.com/news/latest_news/first_fuelcell_commissioned.html

I agree Bas. I hope one of the updated units is on its way to Chinchilla for further testing.

Hopefully the longstanding loyal shareholders (and some more recent ones) will be rewarded in the short term.

 

[luckypaul]

In the June 30th Quarterly Report from Linc http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110729/pdf/42029xrqlcr5sj.pdf they told us 2 facts regarding their first oil/gas well at Arckaringa-

a) Page 5:-

Linc Energy spuds its first well in the Arckaringa Basin On June 9th 2011 Linc Energy announced it had spudded its first oil and gas exploration well as part of its program for the Arckaringa Basin in South Australia. Known as Haystack 1, the well will be drilled to 1,200m or 3,800 feet.

b) Page 7:-

Arckaringa Basin Update Hunt Rig 3 was accepted and spud Haystack 1 oil and gas well (PEL121) during June. The well was at 468m at the end of the period with a forecast depth of 1200m.

If they were at 468m on June 30th gives a drill rate of 22.3m per day. That means 1200m will take approx 54 days ("approx" as obviously the type of rock they have to drill through will change and impact the drilling speed). That means they would have hit their target drill depth on July 30th!

So I would guess that makes drill results imminent!

Although finding oil/gas, even by professional/experienced oil companies, seems to be like trying to find a needle in a Haystack (pun intended) a positive result here WOULD make this stock soar rather more than this annoyingly illusive coal sale! .

Gentlemen, place your bets please!

 

[Brian Acheson]

It would indeed be interesting to know how Linc was doing in the Archaringa Basin?

Not sure if this has been posted before or not but following is a link to a news letter by Altona Energy an AIM listed company also working in the Archaringa Basin, Interesting read :http://www.altonaenergy.com/pdfs/april_newsletter.pdf

Brian

 

[dogeatdog]

Gloomy times ahead it seems.
With the apparent lack of strong political leadership and will in the US and Europe, a return to recession appears imminent.
This article is interesting, and relative to Linc.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/from-pit-to-port-indias-10bn-coal-export-plan/story-fn59niix-1226118491805

LNC holder

 

[basilio]

Gloomy times ahead it seems.
With the apparent lack of strong political leadership and will in the US and Europe, a return to recession appears imminent.
This article is interesting, and relative to Linc.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/from-pit-to-port-indias-10bn-coal-export-plan/story-fn59niix-1226118491805

LNC holder

Thanks Doggie. Good story. Certainly seems Adani is intent on making it's LNC coal investment effective and profitable. Making sure that no one else takes shark size chunks out of the deal along the way is excellent business sense. And it emphasizes the long term nature of the project VS shorter term issues

From LNC shareholder POV it strengthens the certainty and value of the residual royalties - around $100m + a year for 20 years at 2010 prices. That is not small potatoes.

Be interesting to see if this encourages participants in the sale of the Teresa coal mine to jump into the project with a similar long term perspective. Nothing like someone else leading the way to encourage others to follow !