Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

NCM - Newcrest Mining

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Folks
Just wondering if a company is obligated to advise the stock exchange on the following considering they do have market impact?
  1. Penalty imposed by the court towards company's obligation to a fatality ? NSW court has imposed $450,000 towards a death of an employee and company has accepted the penalty. This has been communicated to all employees as a good initiative but why not informed ASX ?
  2. When plant gets shut for various incidences : eg tailing pipe burnt and plant shut for more than a week, critical break down by ripping of conveyor belt and plant shutdown, thickener breakdown and plant gets shut for two weeks.
  3. Dingo incidence is well known through the newspaper story - not sure if that was reported in ASX either.
Newcrest claims to be Miner of Choice - and I suppose could the above be good examples for a reputed organisation ?
Disclaimer - Do not hold
 
Canada's Barrick Gold considers hostile $19 billion bid for Newmont Mining: media

MELBOURNE (Reuters) - Canada’s Barrick Gold Corp is considering a hostile bid for Newmont Mining Corp for about $19 billion in stock, in what would potentially be one of the largest-ever mining deals, the country’s Globe and Mail newspaper reported.
The paper, which also reported that Barrick would flip some of Newmont’s assets to Australia’s Newcrest Mining, cited industry sources familiar with the situation.

Under the potential terms, Barrick would keep Newmont’s Nevada and African mines, while Newcrest was considering taking over its Australian operations, according to the report......More
 
Ugly day for goldies today and really mixed performance for gold miners across recent weeks.

NCM interestingly enough has held up better than most and is threatening a break out. Although a little 'late' with the ideal entry being several weeks back, this is a good looking pattern to me.

NCM.png
 
Newcrest peaked at $43.46 way back in November 2010.
It's a substantially stronger gold miner nowadays with solid assets, several producing at lowest quartiles and thereby generating very strong cash returns.
Newcrest appears to have recovered from earthquake damage last year to it's Cadia Valley mine and tailings dam, and as this is one of the world's most profitable mines it stands to lift NCM substantially above its average 2018 share price of approx $21.
Today's closing price of $34.02 is NCM's highest since February 2012, placing it less than $10 off its record high.
Near term the gold price seems well-based over $1400/oz and as NCM's buying action appears heavily dependent on POG's daily price movements, buying the dips in a bull market makes sense.
Otherwise, should POG fall back, there is strong support around $27.20 and this represents an ideal price to add.
 
rederob said:
Newcrest peaked at $43.46 way back in November 2010.
It's a substantially stronger gold miner nowadays with solid assets, several producing at lowest quartiles and thereby generating very strong cash returns.
Newcrest appears to have recovered from earthquake damage last year to it's Cadia Valley mine and tailings dam, and as this is one of the world's most profitable mines it stands to lift NCM substantially above its average 2018 share price of approx $21.
Today's closing price of $34.02 is NCM's highest since February 2012, placing it less than $10 off its record high.
Near term the gold price seems well-based over $1400/oz and as NCM's buying action appears heavily dependent on POG's daily price movements, buying the dips in a bull market makes sense.
Otherwise, should POG fall back, there is strong support around $27.20 and this represents an ideal price to add.
Click to expand...
Newcrest has CADIA but also has Telfer (4 years life left, 0.5 to 0.7 gm per ton), PNG . Of course now they are investing on Ludin Gold and ENR. Newcrest is however looking good on my portfolio now - so not complaining
 
Miner said:
Thanks. Could you please provide some basis ?
Just curious. My ex boss Sandeep may get heart attack to learn. :)
Click to expand...
Tell Sandeep I am in rare form, however 'rare' is the operative term. Long term looks good, so I'd look to enter long at 31.68. Two major trendline breakdowns have short targets which converge at that price point, plus the volume profile of the big May run-up sits here, so there should be strong buying support for a trade. If it happens around Nov 1 then there will be a 4th reason for support at that level in the form of the line forming the lower limit of the big flag. Not advice, dyor etc.
 
Last edited:
Gringotts Bank said:
Tell Sandeep I am in rare form, however 'rare' is the operative term. Long term looks good, so I'd look to enter long at 31.68. Two major trendline breakdowns have short targets which converge at that price point, plus the volume profile of the big May run-up sits here, so there should be strong buying support for a trade. If it happens around Nov 1 then there will be a 4th reason for support at that level in the form of the line forming the lower limit of the big flag. Not advice, dyor etc.
Click to expand...
@Gringotts Bank and all
Good morning. Read the quarterly report of newcrest.
I see now Gringotts was ahead.
Market will react pretty soon on all negatives published.
Stay calm.
 
Miner said:
@Gringotts Bank and all
Good morning. Read the quarterly report of newcrest.
I see now Gringotts was ahead.
Market will react pretty soon on all negatives published.
Stay calm.
Click to expand...
Thanks Miner. I agree it looks like it might go a bit lower. I'm now thinking around the green area.

The 3 circled areas (hard run ups) failed to follow through to reach their upside targets.

x.png
 
Not withstanding the technical analysis above, I have a hunch, and just a hunch that gold will go higher in the medium term and NCM is one of my picks amongst gold miners.

I just don't see the XAO overcoming the 2007 top while sailing so close to the wind, in that it is at the upper end of its channel range since the 2009 bottom. But that may just be my eternal pessimism clouding over. That said, gold miners may also retrace further on any market correction.

chart is XAO

upload_2019-10-24_23-45-48.png
 
I got a buy signal (daily) on this yesterday and was looking at gold companies (NST) tracking the price of gold, so thought that I would have a look at NCM as well and can see similarities but just a little more pronounced.

Anyway chart below and will be watching next week.

upload_2019-11-2_7-30-40.png
 
The below chart is a good example of wave 'c' retrace as it lines up pretty good with the Fibonacci figure 1.618.....imagine that.

Always interesting to see a real life example instead of something in a text book from 20 years ago.

Still holding

upload_2019-12-2_7-15-53.png
 
Trav. said:
The below chart is a good example of wave 'c' retrace as it lines up pretty good with the Fibonacci figure 1.618.....imagine that.

Always interesting to see a real life example instead of something in a text book from 20 years ago.

Still holding

View attachment 98831
Click to expand...

Also, it bounced off the 200 day moving average twice in November (11/11 - "well may we say 'God save the Queen'"/"such is life" and 26/11).

It's still a bit too expensive for my liking.
 
tinhat said:
Also, it bounced off the 200 day moving average twice in November (11/11 - "well may we say 'God save the Queen'"/"such is life" and 26/11).

It's still a bit too expensive for my liking.
Click to expand...
Looks like @tinhat NCM has been following your wish, with constant south direction move even the mines are located in North :).
Today hopefully the market will get some upward direction with NCM being included on ASX 20 and gold price movement however temporary the reaction would be. The instos would balance their portfolio with more buying NCM. Lets see if my 'wish' comes true.
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20191213/pdf/44ck512fblt235.pdf
 
Miner said:
Looks like @tinhat NCM has been following your wish, with constant south direction move even the mines are located in North :).
Today hopefully the market will get some upward direction with NCM being included on ASX 20 and gold price movement however temporary the reaction would be. The instos would balance their portfolio with more buying NCM. Lets see if my 'wish' comes true.
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20191213/pdf/44ck512fblt235.pdf
Click to expand...
My comment before market opens, has not been accepted by market. The price for today has not halted the south direction. Now I am getting panicked - something could be seriously wrong with Newcrest, and outsiders do not know.
 

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