PAR - Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals

[galumay]

Always a nervous wait when a speccy biotech goes into a Trading Halt for an update on Phase 2 Clinical trials - bad news could make it a 0, good news a !

 

[galumay]

Turned out to be good news!

 

[galumay]

More good news from the Phase 2 trials,

 

[galumay]

Actually it wasn't good news, as was pointed out to me the results were statistically insignificant due to the P>0.05. I emailed IR at PAR, but 2 weeks later no reply, and now a CR announced - partly based on the meaningless results posted around cartilage thickness and volume!

 

[finicky]

You always have to be on the lookout for P>0.05 imo.

 

[galumay]

So I am learning, I just took the corporate hype at face value! I think the real lesson is don't speculate on bio-techs!

 

[galumay]

Price drops 30% on returning to trading, to match CR price of 43c, you do get some options thrown in, so its not cheaper to buy on market...yet.

Its the dilemma with CR, dont participate and get diluted, participate and watch the price keep falling! Its one of the reasons I will never buy another bio tech and also why I try to avoid businesses that use equity for funding.

Still no response from IR to my emails about their dodgy data in Phase 2 trials either.

I would sell if it were not such a tiny position, no conviction in Management integrity anymore.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

not a chartist, but the tea leaves tell some that two 'come and go' surges mean some holders are happy to sell

Below, PAR performance

and then the nees and demand for cash.

For FY24 IDX expects:
• Replacement and growth capex to be in the range of $30m to $40m
• Depreciation of ~$45m, including depreciation of ~$17m for right of use assets under AASB16
• Finance costs of ~$22m, including finance costs of ~$5m for right of use assets under AASB16, and assuming a further 0.25% interest rate increase in November 2023

 

[galumay]

I think the market clued onto the dodgy Phase 2 results, the cash requirements are par for the course with bio techs, and they never have a problem raising, the institutional investors covered most of this straight away.

Happy to hang on given the tiny size of my position, but i am a slow learner, second time i have watched a bio tech destroy my capital, at least i am not tipping any more in with these duds.

 

[Boggo]

This stock has had a massive fall from its high of around $4.35 but now seems to have a pulse again.

(weekly, click to expand)

 

[galumay]

@Boggo its about to commence Phase 3 trials so its getting close to something!! It will need a lot more capital though, so its either further dilution or a partner/PE etc to get there. Been some very odd price action the last couple of weeks given that really nothing has materially changed.

Typical bloody bio tech, one day it could make you a millionaire, but you will go bankrupt multiple times first!!

 

[Boggo]

Typical bloody bio tech, one day it could make you a millionaire, but you will go bankrupt multiple times first!!

I'm hearing you. Let me now if you would like some BIT shares, i've got a few going cheap

 

[finicky]

I could throw in some Chimeric ((CHM) shares. Thanks Tony Locantro, big fan.

 

[galumay]

You guys are too kind.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

@Boggo its about to commence Phase 3 trials so its getting close to something!! It will need a lot more capital though, so its either further dilution or a partner/PE etc to get there. Been some very odd price action the last couple of weeks given that really nothing has materially changed.

Typical bloody bio tech, one day it could make you a millionaire, but you will go bankrupt multiple times first!!

drum roll

.