Post Corona...

[Sdajii]

Sdajii I can appreciate the awful stress the COVID 19 shutdown has had on you, your family and of course the millions of other people who lost their jobs and businesses. You accurately point out that this problem is far starker in Asia than Australia.

Your argument is that you see the economic and personal freedom consequences far outweighing the risk to human life. You suggest this is a serious problem but not serious enough to warrant the current response.

No, that is not my argument. The number of human deaths will be greater this way than with no measures taken.

The trouble is no one yet knows what the final consequences of letting COVID 19 rip will be.

They Chinese made a grave mistake in allowing it to get out control in Wuhan province. They finally had to lock down the entire province as well as the remainder of China to bring it under control. During that time the hospitals were overwhelmed, people died in their homes on the streets in hospital waiting rooms. It was bedlam.

I'm disappointed that you believe the Chinese propaganda so completely. It is very obviously false, it was clearly designed to illicit an emotional response from the public and a tangible reaction from the governments. Do you really think they locked down the entire country of China? All those people in all that area in all the different circumstances? This didn't actually happen.

Overall there were 80,000 reported infections (probably many more unreported) in a population of 1.5 Billion. What would have happened if they had let it rip ?

Are you honestly naive enough to think these figures are remotely true? And, if they are, it is worse, because the only way they could be remotely representative of the reality would be if China was secretly giving a treatment/vaccine to most of the population. I'm not suggesting I know that to be the case, but it's the only way their figures could be accurate or remotely in line with the general pattern.

Well we might have the opportunity to see that play out in the US. Currently 320,000 infections with a rocket and multiple infection sites. I can see the following consequences of letting it rip.

It's going to be interesting. With a couple hundred countries in the world, some taking no action and many taking all sorts of measure of various types, we will indeed have many case studies to prove ourselves right and wrong with.

1) A complete collapse of the health system. It will be unable to cope with the millions of seriously ill people
2) Widespread deaths in the community that create terror and disease as bodies are not cleared quickly enough and create biological hazards.
3) A breakdown of all industry and commerce as these effects continue unchecked.
4) The spread of secondary diseases associated with breakdowns in systems like water, power, sewerage and health. Cholera, hepatitis,
5) The risk of total breakdown of civil society in some areas. Add in multi million assault rifles in the hands of very angry people and it all goes up in smoke.

You say this as though we have an alternative of simply sitting inside watching Netflix for a couple of months and entirely avoiding it.

The projected direct consequences of letting COVID 19 rip unabated is around 3 million direct deaths. Think 1% of 300 million people.
But in fact the 1% death rate is dependent on a functioning health system that can effectively treat the 20% who fall seriously ill and save basically 95% of them. If it all goes to hell then we would see this figure escalate to a 3-5% mortality - 9-15million people.

Is this the risk we want to take?

Absolutely. I don't think it would actually be anywhere near that bad, and even with draconian measures it won't be avoided to the extend you are assuming. Even if you are correct about the 9-15 million people dying, it's not like the destruction of the economy and mental health and family structure and education and associated deaths and suffering will prevent those 9-15 million people dying. Most are going to die anyway, and they'll do it in a world where we have chosen to cause all these additional problems. Even if you ignore all the deaths and suffering we will cause by the isolation measures and even if we would see 15 million deaths with no measures, we have no hope of saving all of those 15 million people. Most will still die. The only way it will be avoided is if the most unlikely medical miracle since penicillin is found within the next few months. It's remotely possible but it's not a good bet.

 

[Smurf1976]

your assertion of such suggests that you believe all domestic violence is inevitable and unavoidable. This is nothing like reality.

That is not what I am saying at all.

I am saying that there is no situation which warrants bashing someone, either female or male, other than as a genuine last resort option in self defence.

Actions being taken by governments in relation to the pandemic do not come anywhere close to justifying assault.

To the extent that the current situation prompts violence, and I do acknowledge that will be the case in practice, it is exposing a flaw which was always present. If it wasn't in 2020 due to the COVID-19 issue then it would have been at some other time due to some other trigger.

If someone bashes their partner due to spending too much time together then as a couple they've got far more problems than government ordering the pubs shut, indeed alcohol is the last thing they need.

I could likewise say that the situation seems to be encouraging some to drive dangerously. Suffice to say I'd be willing to bet that this isn't the first time those individuals have driven well over the legal speed limit on a public street and it won't be the last. It's just encouraging stupid behaviour by those already prone to it but the rest of us have no difficulty driving normally and sensibly.

 

[Sdajii]

That is not what I am saying at all.

...except that it is, and you go on to say it again (I'll quote below).

I am saying that there is no situation which warrants bashing someone, either female or male, other than as a genuine last resort option in self defence.

Actions being taken by governments in relation to the pandemic do not come anywhere close to justifying assault.

To the extent that the current situation prompts violence, and I do acknowledge that will be the case in practice, it is exposing a flaw which was always present. If it wasn't in 2020 due to the COVID-19 issue then it would have been at some other time due to some other trigger.

So here you acknowledge that I'm right (these measures will indeed cause assault to occur), and you then go on to repeat your assertion that this assault is inevitable. No, I do not accept that, these assaults are not inevitable. Happy people in good circumstances commit less assault throughout their lives. The are born, they live, they die, having committed a certain amount of assault during that time. No individual case of assault is inevitable. It is very tangibly possible to increase or decrease the amount of assault which occurs. It is possible to entirely prevent an assault from occurring, or to induce an assault which otherwise would not have occurred. Surely you can see that this is going to increase the total amount of domestic violence which will occur in this world. It won't simply cause inevitable assault to happen sooner (there may be individual cases of that, sure), it will definitely cause assault to occur which otherwise would not.

If someone bashes their partner due to spending too much time together then as a couple they've got far more problems than government ordering the pubs shut, indeed alcohol is the last thing they need.

So what? The reality is that bad people do exist in this world, and the government is putting in place a situation which will cause more of these people to inflict more violence upon innocent people. Spin it however you like, this is the unfortunate reality you are for some reason trying to pretend is not the case.

I could likewise say that the situation seems to be encouraging some to drive dangerously. Suffice to say I'd be willing to bet that this isn't the first time those individuals have driven well over the legal speed limit on a public street and it won't be the last. It's just encouraging stupid behaviour by those already prone to it but the rest of us have no difficulty driving normally and sensibly.

Strange off topic paragraph.

 

[Smurf1976]

So what? The reality is that bad people do exist in this world, and the government is putting in place a situation which will cause more of these people to inflict more violence upon innocent people. Spin it however you like, this is the unfortunate reality you are for some reason trying to pretend is not the case.

If someone cannot resolve issues without resorting to violence then it takes a pretty big leap of faith to think that having government shut down the pubs and cinemas and so on really is the only trigger that person will ever face and without it they'd never be violent.

My argument is that they would in practice still commit the crime and that all this is really going to do is bring forward the timing.

Between legal issues, divorce, business, witnessing or being a victim of crime, accidents, illness, encountering sociopaths, bullies and so on there's a pretty substantial chunk of the population who will go through some very dark days at some point in their lives. It's not as though the current situation will be the worst thing that ever happens to them.

 

[Sdajii]

If someone cannot resolve issues without resorting to violence then it takes a pretty big leap of faith to think that having government shut down the pubs and cinemas and so on really is the only trigger that person will ever face and without it they'd never be violent.

Its not a leap of faith, it's merely either looking at the tangible, predictable reality that environmental influences do indeed cause increases in domestic violence, or simply using common sense to see that obvious reality.

My argument is that they would in practice still commit the crime and that all this is really going to do is bring forward the timing.

Your argument flies in the face of actual reality. That's a bit of a snag.

Between legal issues, divorce, business, witnessing or being a victim of crime, accidents, illness, encountering sociopaths, bullies and so on there's a pretty substantial chunk of the population who will go through some very dark days at some point in their lives. It's not as though the current situation will be the worst thing that ever happens to them.

For some people it will be, for most it won't, but this is irrelevant. To say that something is not the worst thing a person will ever go through is reason to dismiss it as unimportant is so far off the absurd chart you should be ashamed of even trying to make the point. Inflicting suffering on millions of people is not a trivial thing even if it wasn't going to the worst thing of their lives for any of them.

And again, domestic violence is just one small part of the problem being caused. I'm not sure why you're making it your major focus.

 

[SirRumpole]

Its not a leap of faith, it's merely either looking at the tangible, predictable reality that environmental influences do indeed cause increases in domestic violence, or simply using common sense to see that obvious reality.

Happy and close families don't commit violence under any circumstances.

DV is symptomatic of a lot of other problems in society that were around before covid.

A lot of businesses and systems do "stress testing" to find out if they are up to the task of handling adverse circumstances. If they don't pass the test of the current circumstances then maybe they should be thinking that they should make other arrangements when the crisis is over.

Anyway, the government has acknowledged the stress that the measures cause and has set aside money for mental health and dv victims.

https://probonoaustralia.com.au/new...mental-health-and-domestic-violence-services/

 

[qldfrog]

While not denying the effects on social, etc, i also believe it is revealing more than creating.

Wrong partner, excuse to steal or commit violence, or depression
I genuinely doubt they would not have surfaced at a later time anyway
We are in a phase which is speeding events: authoritarian gov, cash suppression, broken marriages, DV, forbidding gun sales
We are seeing the worse of humanity and governments
no surprise there, and we haven't been hit..yet..by the actual deaths vague, we can not even counterbalance this with the solidarity or self sacrifice seen in nurses medics on the fighting front.
In Australia, we have to elevate supermarket cashiers to the rank of heros when they get abused by some dimwits..as they were already a year ago
We found plenty of villains the hoarders, a bit of racism with some pictures of Asians full trolleys, the partying backpackers or the lovers meeting in secluded location: " if i can not have good sex and have to hear my wife winging all fay, why should they have fun"

Not nice..but was there before and would have popped up anyway.
By breaking marriages now, we may even save many unborn childs and parents from future broken family misery
DV as long as not terminal will hopefully allow people to separate early and give the victims more years to recover.
Let's hope..

 

[qldfrog]

Let's be positive
Anyone seeing some new opportunities ahead..not talking share market, but more new business opportunities , even if it could be home security or welfare providers for previously self funded retirees
Anyone from latin America able to draw parallels with Chile, Argentina and leverage experience there?

 

[IFocus]

Happy and close families don't commit violence under any circumstances.

Yep my mob drink like there is no tomorrow but never ever any hint of DV every one values each other to highly as crazy as some are.

 

[matty77]

DV is just wrong, from both sides, and there are no excuses, ever.

Yes this pandemic will put peoples relationships under more pressure then ever before therefore DV will rise, financial pressure, health pressure, death, bordem etc its all there and going to contribute to the woes of society.

Post Corona, I can see the divorce rate going up, but at the moment people are kinda stuck with each other, or a positive spin could be it could make relationships stronger as people get to spend more time at home together..

 

[Sdajii]

Happy and close families don't commit violence under any circumstances.

This would be relevant if all families were happy and close.

In actuality, we live in the real world where such a fantasy is not relevant.

 

[Sdajii]

Yep my mob drink like there is no tomorrow but never ever any hint of DV every one values each other to highly as crazy as some are.

Wow! I am at no risk of being a perpetrator or victim of domestic violence either! I suppose that means it's not a problem we should care about! Hooray!

 

[Smurf1976]

Wow! I am at no risk of being a perpetrator or victim of domestic violence either! I suppose that means it's not a problem we should care about! Hooray!

The debate's more about whether the shutdown will increase it as such or just bring it forward?

You seem to be in the camp which says an outright increase. It will cause incidents that otherwise would not have occurred. There will be people bashed etc during the lockdown who would never have had that occur without the lockdown.

I'm in the camp which says it will bring forward what was going to happen sometime anyway. That is, if person A bashes person B during the lockdown but whilst the lockdown might be the direct trigger, if that triggered physical violence then sooner or later something else would have triggered the same response so it was only a matter of time. Person A was going to assault person B, the only question was when and with what excuse.

In truth there'll probably be some of both so it's a question of which is more dominant.

 

[basilio]

Let's be positive
Anyone seeing some new opportunities ahead..not talking share market, but more new business opportunities , even if it could be home security or welfare providers for previously self funded retirees
Anyone from latin America able to draw parallels with Chile, Argentina and leverage experience there?

Indeed there are business opportunities during this crisis. One such opportunity is to become reseller of masks, disinfectant and other essential PPE .

There is an Australian company offering just that opportunity... Just check out the prices on their products however. Certainly plenty of margin..

https://www.livingstone.com.au/Prod...FACE-MASK-EAR-LOOP-3PLY-BLUE-PFE-BFE-99-50-BX

https://www.livingstone.com.au/#/Pages/Careers
https://www.livingstone.com.au/Pages/bereseller

 

[jbocker]

I was initially drawn to this by the detail on the left but more and more looking more at data the RH columns. I have been watching the positioning of the nations on the 'ladder'. Originally Brazil and Australia because we kept jostling at 19 and 20. But an interesting one is Sweden who have adopted more of an approach what @Sdajii discusses. Be interesting to watch Norway and Sweden who share the same land mass geographically. Albeit need to review Norways approach to lock down and appreciate that Norway has 1/2 the population of Sweden who have less than 1/2 the population of Australia.

https://virusncov.com/
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/coro...-social-obedience/ar-BB12ey5E?ocid=spartanntp

 

[IFocus]

Wow! I am at no risk of being a perpetrator or victim of domestic violence either! I suppose that means it's not a problem we should care about! Hooray!

Your response is illogical.

 

[basilio]

Your response is illogical.

And the problem with that is ???

 

[barney]

Just check out the prices on their products however. Certainly plenty of margin..

I see your point (from the other thread) now Bas ……

Opportunists cashing in on fear … sometimes human behaviour is pretty ordinary

 

[spooly74]

Long Copper in the Brave New World that awaits?

https://www.fastcompany.com/90476550/copper-kills-coronavirus-why-arent-our-surfaces-covered-in-it

https://cuverro.com/products/antimicrobial-copper-iphone-case

 

[basilio]

Long Copper in the Brave New World that awaits?

https://www.fastcompany.com/90476550/copper-kills-coronavirus-why-arent-our-surfaces-covered-in-it

https://cuverro.com/products/antimicrobial-copper-iphone-case

Excellent story and a very good website. It's absolutely clear that copper or copper brass are excellent bacteria killers. I can certainly see a very quick return of copper with the legitimate concerns about continuing infectious outbreaks.