Recession? What recession?

[JohnDe]

Some great explanations of what may be happening out in the real world, away from governments and reserve banks -

 

[mullokintyre]

CITI Bank have released their rate forecasts,
I wonder what they see happening starting in September.

Mick

 

[farmerge]

CITI Bank have released their rate forecasts,
I wonder what they see happening starting in September.
View attachment 180194
Mick

@mullokintyre It will be interesting to see if the other banks are in the same thought bubble as Citi.

 

[Smurf1976]

I wonder what they see happening starting in September.

Somewhat ominous given the choice of month does have a bit of a reputation.

 

[Smurf1976]

I wonder what they see happening starting in September.

Demand for US Treasury bonds dries up due to a loss of confidence and the Fed steps in?

Just a thought given the overall set of circumstances. Some sort of disruption / incident / turning point in the next few months seems fairly plausible to me.

 

[divs4ever]

CITI Bank have released their rate forecasts,
I wonder what they see happening starting in September.
View attachment 180194
Mick

dreaming of a rate cut , perhaps

or maybe they figure the Fed will try to buy an election

 

[mullokintyre]

dreaming of a rate cut , perhaps

or maybe they figure the Fed will try to buy an election

the exists for the benefit of the Major US banks, they are the ones who own it.
Go have a look at the activity that occupies the minds of the Fed banking system.
Pretty much everything they do is geared around making sure the big banks make a motza.
From Wall Street on Parade



Mick

 

[qldfrog]

the exists for the benefit of the Major US banks, they are the ones who own it.
Go have a look at the activity that occupies the minds of the Fed banking system.
Pretty much everything they do is geared around making sure the big banks make a motza.
From Wall Street on Parade
View attachment 180196
View attachment 180197

Mick

Crazy how low the saving accounts return as stated above...
I get more with my hsbc in usd account..well better check now

 

[mullokintyre]

CITI Bank have released their rate forecasts,
I wonder what they see happening starting in September.
View attachment 180194
Mick

Perhaps one of the reasons why CITI expect (hope?) there will be rate cuts can be seen in the following chart.



Am I being too cynical again?
Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

US consumers have resumed their use of revolving credit card debt, cruelling the narrative that at last US consumers were cutting back on spending.


This comes despite the near record high Credit Card debt Interest sitting at 22.76%, 1 point below the all time high.
It is worth noting that over the years, credit card interest rates have been going up, but no matter the eceonomic conditons, they almost never go down.




Mick

 

[farmerge]

US consumers have resumed their use of revolving credit card debt, cruelling the narrative that at last US consumers were cutting back on spending.
View attachment 180293

This comes despite the near record high Credit Card debt Interest sitting at 22.76%, 1 point below the all time high.
It is worth noting that over the years, credit card interest rates have been going up, but no matter the eceonomic conditons, they almost never go down.


View attachment 180294

Mick

And don't the banks and credit suppliers love it.
Money, money, money

 

[mullokintyre]

In a further piece of evidence about headwinds for the US economy. vehicle reposessions have jumped 23% in the furst siz months of the year.
From Bloombergs

Cox data shows repos jumped 23% in the first six months of this year compared with the same period in 2023. Repos started moving higher last year and have now exceeded pre-Covid levels, up 14% compared to the first half of 2019.

"When you think about the costs for rent and shelter and insurance, all those things hit consumers and they have to choose what they will pay," Jeremy Robb, senior director of economic and industry insights at Cox, told Bloomberg.

Robb warned, "More people are getting behind on payments because everything is more expensive."

And from Zero Hedge

Fitch Ratings data shows that the percentage of subprime auto borrowers who were at least 60 days late on their bill in June was around 5.62%, down from the record in February.

Data from Bankrate indicates that the average interest rate for a new 60-month auto loan is now 7.94%, while for a used car, it's around 12%. The average monthly payments have risen to $739 for new vehicles and $549 for used cars.

What's clear is that consumers have used more debt than ever to fund near-record new car purchases. Fast-forward to today and the ominous new development is that high monthly payments in a period of elevated inflation and high interest rates have made these vehicles unaffordable for some.

We believe this surge in nominal auto debt and elevated interest rates will crush the subprime borrowers as more fall behind on their car payments—a trend that should only accelerate.
Recently, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau officials have been concerned about troubling signs in the auto market, particularly among so-called subprime borrowers.
Now, it's a race against time for the Federal Reserve to provide relief to consumers. Traders are anticipating the first rate cut in September, driven by cooling inflation data.

Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

Reinforcing the view that the US is headed for a period of stagflation, with a slowing economy and credit maxed out citizens, comes the news that supply chain pressure is mounting.
Firstly, the New York Fed has its say.

Supply chain disruptions have become a major challenge for the global economy since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Assessing the intensity of these issues has also posed a challenge, as conventional measures tend to focus on specific dimensions of global supply chains.

Our goal in constructing the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) was to develop a parsimonious measure of global supply chain pressures that could be used to gauge the importance of supply constraints with respect to economic outcomes. Our research indicates, for example, that changes in the GSCPI are associated with goods and producer price inflation in the United States and the euro area, both during the pandemic period and stretching back to 1997 (the starting point of our data set).

Goldman Sachs also sees its Global Supply Index rising for the first time in 2.5 years.





Mick

 

[divs4ever]

Reinforcing the view that the US is headed for a period of stagflation, with a slowing economy and credit maxed out citizens, comes the news that supply chain pressure is mounting.
Firstly, the New York Fed has its say.


Goldman Sachs also sees its Global Supply Index rising for the first time in 2.5 years.
View attachment 180919

View attachment 180921
View attachment 180922

Mick

so i am guessing there is still a bottle-neck at the Panama Canal

surely it must be ( financially ) viable to ship from China to the US via the Pacific and then duck through the Panama Canal for goods destined for the US East Coast

interesting times

 

[Knobby22]

so i am guessing there is still a bottle-neck at the Panama Canal

surely it must be ( financially ) viable to ship from China to the US via the Pacific and then duck through the Panama Canal for goods destined for the US East Coast

interesting times

Plus the Houthis in the middle east contraing European trade.

 

[divs4ever]

but that should be mostly annoying the EU and UK ( and Western Africa)

after all this Yemeni blockade has been going for months now , most have had plenty of time to re-route

 

[mullokintyre]

Us homeowners, having spent all their savings (see post #73 ),maxed out their credit cards (see post #110 ), it now seems that they are turning to their home equity as an ATM.
From Zero Hedge








Mick

 

[farmerge]

We went to Midland Gate today to have a mob ph issue sorted and replace the aging 3G ph that She has.
Followed this up with lunch at the food hall.
Not a lot of foot traffic in the complex and the food hall was not as thriving as one might have expected, seeing as it was a winter's day outside.
Perhaps there is not the free flow of money around now.

 

[waterbottle]

Us homeowners, having spent all their savings (see post #73 ),maxed out their credit cards (see post #110 ), it now seems that they are turning to their home equity as an ATM.
From Zero Hedge
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View attachment 182174

Mick

Finally, Australian culture is making an impact overseas

 

[divs4ever]

Us homeowners, having spent all their savings (see post #73 ),maxed out their credit cards (see post #110 ), it now seems that they are turning to their home equity as an ATM.
From Zero Hedge
View attachment 182173




View attachment 182172
View attachment 182174

Mick

actually there are reports saying the IRS are letting more and more Americans dip into their IRAs and 401Ks ( the equivalent of their super funds/pension plans )

one can only guess the consequences of that ( less dumb cash to be throw at Green projects perhaps ? )