The future of energy generation and storage

[SirRumpole]

There are however many offsets:

Every educational facility is shut.

Fewer businesses open on Christmas Day than at any other time of year.

Systems such as air-conditioning and desktop computers in commercial use that are not uncommonly left running 24/7 are more likely to be switched off over the Christmas break. Not consistently, but it's definitely a thing, some companies do have an "everything off" policy at this time of year (mostly due to fire risk).

A significant portion of homes also unoccupied due to visiting family etc,

Hard to prove but realistically less cooking circa 6pm. With people on holidays more use of BBQ's the vast majority of which aren't electric.

Fewer public transport services which includes electric trains and trams in cities.

We're at the peak of sunlight this time of year, doesn't get any better than this. That impacts both solar generation and also makes a small reduction in demand due to lighting.

Put that all together and the effect is a significant offset to temperature-induced consumption.

If it was a working week with schools in session, what would the situation be at 40C ?

 

[qldfrog]

If it was a working week with schools in session, what would the situation be at 40C ?

Tomorrow is expected to be a scorcher down south.
That's when we could see some issues, especially if compounded by wild fires

 

[Smurf1976]

If it was a working week with schools in session, what would the situation be at 40C ?

Basic requirement to get a hot weather extreme high demand are:

1. Working weekday.

2. Preferably with schools open but not essential.

3. Heat needs to be widespread not localised. Needs to affect all of the capital city + regions. An issue in NSW in particular being there's not uncommonly a major temperature gradient across Sydney with the east being considerably cooler than the west. That's less of an issue in the other capitals.

4. The nature of the weather itself. Temperature needs to be high over multiple consecutive days to fully get through the more heavily constructed buildings (eg double brick, stone etc). Also humidity has a major impact - the higher the humidity, the higher will be the energy used to maintain a given temperature inside.

Today it just won't happen. Eg forecast peak for SA today is 2072MW so that's 1400MW below the record. Yes it's currently 35 degrees in Adelaide, forecast maximum 36, but even that's relatively mild considering adding another 10 degrees on top of that still wouldn't be a record.

Similar in other states. Nationally 75% of consumption is by users that aren't residential and even in the relatively non-industrialised states it's still at least 69%. That being so, there's simply too many businesses shut to get demand up to a level that would be problematic.

It's a bit like road traffic. To end up with a traffic jam today wouldn't be impossible but it'd take something to go wrong, it's not going to happen otherwise given reduced volumes. Well, not unless the location is the beach maybe.

 

[SirRumpole]

Basic requirement to get a hot weather extreme high demand are:

1. Working weekday.

2. Preferably with schools open but not essential.

3. Heat needs to be widespread not localised. Needs to affect all of the capital city + regions. An issue in NSW in particular being there's not uncommonly a major temperature gradient across Sydney with the east being considerably cooler than the west. That's less of an issue in the other capitals.

4. The nature of the weather itself. Temperature needs to be high over multiple consecutive days to fully get through the more heavily constructed buildings (eg double brick, stone etc). Also humidity has a major impact - the higher the humidity, the higher will be the energy used to maintain a given temperature inside.

Today it just won't happen. Eg forecast peak for SA today is 2072MW so that's 1400MW below the record. Yes it's currently 35 degrees in Adelaide, forecast maximum 36, but even that's relatively mild considering adding another 10 degrees on top of that still wouldn't be a record.

Similar in other states. Nationally 75% of consumption is by users that aren't residential and even in the relatively non-industrialised states it's still at least 69%. That being so, there's simply too many businesses shut to get demand up to a level that would be problematic.

It's a bit like road traffic. To end up with a traffic jam today wouldn't be impossible but it'd take something to go wrong, it's not going to happen otherwise given reduced volumes. Well, not unless the location is the beach maybe.

Appreciate you replying today.

Enjoy the supply/demand situation whatever you are doing.

 

[qldfrog]

While i would not dare suggesting fusion here while our main intercities train are not even electrified, some news on why i am more convince fusion is definitely coming, something i would not have bet 10y ago

Cautious optimism surrounds plans for the world's first nuclear fusion power plant

Some in the industry feel that the plant will face many challenges

theweek.com

 

[SirRumpole]

Indonesia could be going nuclear.

Implications for our national security I would think.

This earthquake-prone country has a plan to introduce nuclear power

One of Australia's closest neighbours proposes 29 locations for nuclear power plants across the archipelago, but critics say the plan is "dangerous".

www.abc.net.au

 

[sptrawler]

Indonesia could be going nuclear.

Implications for our national security I would think.

This earthquake-prone country has a plan to introduce nuclear power

One of Australia's closest neighbours proposes 29 locations for nuclear power plants across the archipelago, but critics say the plan is "dangerous".

www.abc.net.au

They probably don't have a lot of options, 275million people and they are industrialising, therefore as their affluence and industry grows, their electrical demand will grow exponentially I would guess.

I wouldn't have thought they have a huge amount of readily accessible land, suitable for the amount of solar/wind/ storage that will be require, to meet their energy demands.

Indonesia per capita usage:
Around 10,173 kilowatt hours

Australia per capita usage:
In 2023, the average Australian used 63,257 kWh
This figure is significantly higher than that of an average consumer in the UK but is slightly lower than that of the US.

Indonesia: Energy Country Profile

Indonesia: Many of us want an overview of how much energy our country consumes, where it comes from, and if we’re making progress on decarbonizing our energy mix. This page provides the data for your chosen country across all of the key metrics on this topic.

ourworldindata.org

 

[qldfrog]

They probably don't have a lot of options, 275million people and they are industrialising, therefore as their affluence and industry grows, their electrical demand will grow exponentially I would guess.

I wouldn't have thought they have a huge amount of readily accessible land, suitable for the amount of solar/wind/ storage that will be require, to meet their energy demands.

Indonesia per capita usage:
Around 1,173 kilowatt hours

Australia per capita usage:
In 2023, the average Australian used 63,257 kWh

And foremost tgey have no money to waste on fancy not working systems, as it seems we have

 

[Smurf1976]

And foremost tgey have no money to waste on fancy not working systems, as it seems we have

Countries with an abundance of easily extracted natural resources tend to go down the track of developing that natural capital and neglecting human capital.

Australia in 2024 is an outstanding example of that unfortunately. Even for the tertiary educated, it's a practical reality that most engineers do no actual engineering and most with a law degree do not practice law, same with many professions (medical being a notable exception).

Those lamenting our energy situation, lack of manufacturing or anything related are basically lamenting that point. That we've gone down the track of digging big holes in the ground and outsourcing complexity.

 

[SirRumpole]

Science is interesting but the boring engineers have to make it work.