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The official "ASX is tanking!" panic thread

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How will the RBA’s soon-to-be-released policy decision impact the Australian share market?

Although the central bank will probably look to end their QE program after the recent jobs and inflation data, anything beyond that seems fairly unlikely, especially with a Federal Election around the corner.

The ASX200 has been probing resistance at 7000 since Friday. Should the RBA decide to end QE without any further action be taken, investors could feel that the decision has been priced in following last week’s sell-off, and could allow the market to form a low.

However, if the RBA looks to mirror the Fed with a more hawkish approach to inflation, the ASX200 could easily find itself getting rejected at this level, leaving the door open for further downside.

All trading carries risk, but it’ll be interesting to see how the market reacts over the next few hours.
 
It may come as a bit of a surprise that Retail Sales fell 4.4% in December.
What comes as no surprise is that once again economists were hopelessly wrong as the "consensus was for a 3.9% rise.
From National Tribune

Australian retail turnover fell 4.4 per cent in December 2021, seasonally adjusted, according to the Retail Trade figures released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

The December result follows consecutive rises of 7.3 per cent in November 2021, 4.9 per cent in October 2021, and 1.3 per cent in September 2021.

Ben James, Director of Quarterly Economy Wide Statistics, said the 4.4 per cent fall is the largest monthly fall since April 2020. However, retail sales remain elevated compared to pre pandemic levels, with December’s monthly turnover the second highest level in the series following last month’s record.

“Despite this month’s fall, retail turnover remains strong, up 4.8 per cent on December 2020, with strong consumer spending continuing post the Delta Outbreak,” Mr James said. “Victoria recorded the largest fall of any state or territory, down 8.4 per cent, however this only partly unwinds the state’s strong rise in November when it rose to a record level. Victorian turnover is now at the third highest level ever, 6.5 per cent above December 2020.”
Click to expand...
I fail to understand how any of these well paid economists get to keep their jobs.
Be interesting to see the RBA announcement as well as the next set of Employment statistics.
Mick
 
mullokintyre said:
It may come as a bit of a surprise that Retail Sales fell 4.4% in December.
What comes as no surprise is that once again economists were hopelessly wrong as the "consensus was for a 3.9% rise.
From National Tribune


I fail to understand how any of these well paid economists get to keep their jobs.
Be interesting to see the RBA announcement as well as the next set of Employment statistics.
Mick
Click to expand...
Mick,
As a small business owner, i was selected to fill their survey, month after month a couple of years ago
Not only was the survey focus totally irrelevant to my company but it started by 2 pages highlighting the fines i would be subjected should i failed to fill or filled incorrectly.
The quality of my answers matched my expectations
 
An
qldfrog said:
Mick,
As a small business owner, i was selected to fill their survey, month after month a couple of years ago
Not only was the survey focus totally irrelevant to my company but it started by 2 pages highlighting the fines i would be subjected should i failed to fill or filled incorrectly.
The quality of my answers matched my expectations
Click to expand...
Anyone interested in a real economic pulse should look at CBA reports : these guys have a real time knowledge
 
mullokintyre said:
What comes as no surprise is that once again economists were hopelessly wrong as the "consensus was for a 3.9% rise.

I fail to understand how any of these well paid economists get to keep their jobs.
Click to expand...

Maybe because you fail to understand the nature of "consensus" here?

It's essentially the average forecast from the pool of analysts (not economists) who cover the number. It's like ~20 people. The average, which means some forecasted higher, some lower, maybe none at all forecasted the consensus number.
 
InsvestoBoy said:
Maybe because you fail to understand the nature of "consensus" here?

It's essentially the average forecast from the pool of analysts (not economists) who cover the number. It's like ~20 people. The average, which means some forecasted higher, some lower, maybe none at all forecasted the consensus number.
Click to expand...
Thank you for the education on what consensus means, I will return the complement and provide you with what a statistical average means. Given the huge disparity between the actual and forecast, and presuming that all the analysts are given equal weighting, there would have most likely been a majority of analysts who were in positive territory, and very few in negative territory. A failure whichever way you look at it.
Mick
 
InsvestoBoy said:
Maybe because you fail to understand the nature of "consensus" here?

It's essentially the average forecast from the pool of analysts (not economists) who cover the number. It's like ~20 people. The average, which means some forecasted higher, some lower, maybe none at all forecasted the consensus number.
Click to expand...
i understand consensus , very well

consensus however often devolves into a circle-jerk , as outrageous opinions ( no matter how often they are correct ) are either not sought at all , or flatly rejected
 
mullokintyre said:
there would have most likely been a majority of analysts who were in positive territory, and very few in negative territory. A failure whichever way you look at it.
Mick
Click to expand...

You should see the chart that shows all the predictions, it's very wide, some optimists, some pessemists, average them == consensus.

Moral of the story: as usual, don't take media one liners as face value of what happened.
 
divs4ever said:
consensus however often devolves into a circle-jerk , as outrageous opinions ( no matter how often they are correct ) are either not sought at all , or flatly rejected
Click to expand...
Plus a related problem that those with the more extreme views may self-censor to avoid standing out.

That's a common problem in large organisations especially. Whichever view the boss expresses, others just agree.
 
Smurf1976 said:
Plus a related problem that those with the more extreme views may self-censor to avoid standing out.

That's a common problem in large organisations especially. Whichever view the boss expresses, others just agree.
Click to expand...

I feel like y'all getting hung up hard on the word "consensus" but what you are describing is just not how this particular consensus is achieved.

Fin companies like Bloomberg/CNBC/Reuters/etc have access to the research from analysts at big investment houses and banks etc. Each analyst is competing for reputation to have the most accurate view of whatever economy they cover and there is big $$$ in being right, especially if you are the one with variant perception (literally the opposite of what you describe here).

Consensus is just lame media shorthand for the average that Bloomberg et all present on the screen. The plot/chart of the different forecasts from those analysts is not consensus, it is very wide.
 


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