So_Cynical
The Contrarian Averager
- Joined
- 31 August 2007
- Posts
- 7,460
- Reactions
- 1,454
I cannot see any logical reason for a fall to GFC lows other than Russian nukes.
won't be much trading if Russia uses nukes , the chances are they would multiple launch that's something over 2000 warheads plus some other nasty stuff basically used as decoys ( they know NATO will NOT use discipline or precision so will throw all the dice and see how many Russians survive )I cannot see any logical reason for a fall to GFC lows other than Russian nukes.
My own view is we have (our economies) failed completely to fix gfc issues.I cannot see any logical reason for a fall to GFC lows other than Russian nukes.
Me either, except for maybe really high interest rates, but with most of the world edging towards recession, I don’t think super high interest rates will be necessary.I cannot see any logical reason for a fall to GFC lows other than Russian nukes.
I agree with the above, what was missing was inflation to inflate away the debt, so now we have inflation and interest rates heading back to normal levels, i think we can fall a bit more but more like COVID low not GFC.My own view is we have (our economies) failed completely to fix gfc issues.
This is a great point. Economic data around the world is already signalling a significant slowdown, and if/when we start to see recessions kick-in and inflation ease as a result, central bank's would be expected to loosen monetary conditions in an effort to stimulate economies and markets.Me either, except for maybe really high interest rates, but with most of the world edging towards recession, I don’t think super high interest rates will be necessary.
Good observation, any reasoning ?It did what it's been doing the last 6 months and has a lot further down to go....
Either inflation comes right down or there's a major financial crisis perceived to be more threatening than inflation itself.What will push CBers to stimulate again?
well my competition selection of GEAR was primarily a bet on the US pivoting ( stimulating ) once more before the mid-term electionsI've been thinking lately - What's going to happen once we hit bottom? What will push CBers to stimulate again?
Or just a mid term catastrophic result for the democrats in the US?Either inflation comes right down or there's a major financial crisis perceived to be more threatening than inflation itself.
what would you call 'catastrophic ' .. a HEAVY loss ( many factor in a loss already ) or a win .. when they have to squarely face the consequences of their policy decisions .. surely life would be very uncomfortable if the Hispanic community completely turned on them after the mid-terms ( because they are a fair part of the middle class )Or just a mid term catastrophic result for the democrats in the US?
A loss for the currently ruling democrats..kas6t label just a name obviously..what would you call 'catastrophic ' .. a HEAVY loss ( many factor in a loss already ) or a win .. when they have to squarely face the consequences of their policy decisions .. surely life would be very uncomfortable if the Hispanic community completely turned on them after the mid-terms ( because they are a fair part of the middle class )
Refer to earlier postings in this thread.. ..Goo
Good observation, any reasoning ?
Gunnerguy
The odds on my thesis of a traditional sept-oct crash just shortened overnight.
Place yer bets, boys
My ridiculous end of year XJO prediction suddenly looking achievable... *Might* be in for the trophy instead of the wooden spoon
If I had to guess, I would say we will follow the USA down on Monday, but whether its a week or a month away, the market is going to accept that the feds actions are in its best interests, and the stock market will stabilise as people realise that there is no better place to store their capital.
I reckon by the end of the year the market will be above 7500 and inflation would have stabilised as a combination of central bank actions and trade normalisations work their way through.
Nice to know you've been thinking of me, bro.
well my prediction ( guess ) of 5 thousand something is looking like a tough ask now , but NOT impossible , i see hints of 'the virus ' returning maybe they get it at COP 27 or maybe the G20Nice to know you've been thinking of me, bro.
But I will point out that my original end of year prediction was a very long odds chance, hence my prediction of possibly the wooden spoon.
No soup for you.
Hello and welcome to Aussie Stock Forums!
To gain full access you must register. Registration is free and takes only a few seconds to complete.
Already a member? Log in here.