Top of this cycle for ASX 200, cash is king?

[Knobby22]

Inflation figures came in lower than expected.
Rate cut is now more likely and may even occur before the election.
Lower interest rates mean higher share prices.

 

[JM12]

hey Kahuna, how do you come to the top of the s&P around 3125?

btw I've been reading your posts for years and have learnt a lot. In all seriousness, I know you're an absolute master when it comes to the market, seen you pick the tops and bottoms with a high hit rate for the last 10+ years.

 

[kahuna1]

I wish ...

No one is a master.

I run three models, one macro economic/ valuation based and 125% of GDP on valuation is ... well ... where it stopped a few times in 2000 ... adjusting 2007 ... 1929 ...

Second is one the chartist will love, a smart form, of the toys they use. Basically learns and tries not to get ahead of itself. This level, 125% of GDP ... is somewhere around 3,050 ... but not so accurate ... technical wise or one not using a single chart, is BETTER .... but technical in nature has a meeting of a whole load of things at around the 3,150 level. BIG THINGS .... and the next stop ... a bridge too far.

Cant see for instance, the rich being able in the USA to drain any more wealth out of the lower 80% which has seen the wealth in say 1980 ... for the lower 80% at 25% ... not a great share ... go to what is 9% NOW. Shocking and a non functioning middle class.

It cant, by definition GO to 150% ..... up much more. Or it can, if one has a lot of stupid pills and it can occur, but unlikely for the third ingredient.

Thats the hard one to define. 2007, late 2007 I spent months talking about ... a 40% correction, got it almost to the day .. and quantum ones as I said one has to change as the goalposts change so t.he bottom was 56% off the top ... . something tipped the MACRO side and LOGIC side way over ;ate 2007. Merrill declaring 5 years of losses, and then total destruction of capital .... and holding the same paper as every other bank and investment bank, whilst they did not report ANY loss ... lied essentially even late 2007 .... well ... they were in deep kaka and until they admitted it, and Paulson a crook from Goldmans now admits as treasury secretary he bluffed his way through .... BLUFFED .... he was and is such a pig.

It tipped the other thing way over the edge, my final model .... USA was declaring 5% GDP growth ... whilst likely 50% of their total banking sector was BROKE ... it sure tunred out that way in 2009 when they had to enter and BUY everything but 56% lower.

Today ... touched on the underlying debt side which has percolated along ... whilst USA attacks other nations over credit issues.

They abandoned their poor and their pensions as the baby boomers retired age 65 so 2011. slashed funding per person on medical care for the old ... all to give CEO's and rich in the USA a tax cut.

This, imbalance either ends in 2020 or 2024. USA pays too much for healthcare, rich pay no tax, companies rape the USA let alone what Apple does to Australian tax and other nations. Microsoft, Exxon, facebook and so on.

All are being VALUED on a tax system that ignores 99% of the USA and screw the rest of the world.
So sure .... we go to 125% of GDP ... for the USA stock side and 3,150 or so ... which is exactly the same on the technical side ... and THIS side ...

It has to change. EU is enforcing draconian proposals to get people like Bill Gates to PAY TAX ... he and Buffet via his companies and Google and the lsit goes on. We have similar things happening here. SO instead of paying 1% tax, on profits, or 7% in the USA ... Australia SHOULD just go ahead with its plan to make it a criminal offense to deliberately evade and steal. It has for now, a law just in ... a 40% tax rate penalty and STILL they are not playing.

Bottom line NO nation can afford to have 1-2% of its GDP stolen off it .... via unpaid taxes which are a fraction of that, so loosing 10% of the tax you collect because Gates wants to fund a vaccine that crippled 7-,--- Indians or fund abortion clinics, is ... what it is.

USA and its majority WANT universal healthcare .... want a pension they paid into for 50 years ... and its a whole pile of rubble that is in extreme danger. SURE the USA stocks go up. OF COURSE they do itf you pay 7% tax verses 17% what happens to NPAT ? **** it surges .... and the stock looks great. Meanwhile, healthcare ... still running at 6% inflation and costs $5k for a day in hospital there ... a doctor in a normal practice spends 30% of their day speaking with the insurers who refuse to pay ...

A lot of things, MUST change. Either in 2020 or 2024. Too late to save the baby boomers from being bankrupted in their old age paying for medical cover, till it runs out.

This, well .... peculating as it has been for a long time, now reaching total boiling point. FOX reports all is well ... in fact USA media wants to elect either TRUMP again if your Fox news or some OBAMA clone and he ... OBAMA was if anything worse than George W ... again, and as always comes down to money. Political donations and lobby groups DICTATE ... or USED to who or whom was elected in the USA.

2018 was a very rude shock ... AOC and a group not funded by lobby groups, the top 1% or CEO;s won LANDSLIDE ... against sitting members and ... without being crooks. People have no idea what its like to go to the doctor and be told your excess is $1,000- on those tests, or as the Kaiser group study of 6.2 million found ... 2000 - 2016 .... 6.2 million cancer patients ... 2 years latter WERE BANKRUPT ...

Its how bad things are.

Maybe it goes past 2020, but I suspect NOT ... even if the poll as say in AOC, the young female democrat from Queens Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, she actually give a damm about her people as do the other 6. Well pre voting day, she was meant to loose by 10% , she won, by 8% .... either one a landslide as elections go.

In 2020, I suspect there will be 200 PLUS of her type and I do hope the Democrats, who are as pathetic as Trump ... corrupt as him ... actually have Bernie as their nominee. Either that or 2024 ... they WILL form another bloody party. No use in electing another specimen like Obama who, well as you know I was agog at ... his weak weak weak corrupt ways having CLOWNS from Goldmans just like Trump ... and back to 1990 even 1980 ... this has to STOP ..

Bottom line .. its that old merry go round ... the one in 2007 that plays at times like this. The Horses removed and replaced with spikes ... that go up and down !!

Impacts of USA going universal healthcare, despite what idiots at Fox say is that say Insulin costing $600- in the USA will now cost ... $150 as it does here, and in Canada and Mexico. Hospital beds at 5k a day verses overall cots 20% of that here ? MRI at $1250 in USA .... $200 here. Some Republican claimed people go to the USA for healthcare from overseas !! With a life expectancy ... a REAL one at 75 verses the official fiction ... and YOU if your read my stuff know how I LOVE pulling apart statistics ... why the hell would someone go to the USA ... for medical care that costs 3 times as much ... and you die 8 years sooner than AUSTRALIA or Canada ?

A lot of other things go into this third secret ingredient ... or not so secret. Being able to pull the stats apart so methodology is the same in EU nations as the crap USa produces is ... as always alarming and helpful.

The lower 80% in the USA are, financially being screwed in the extreme and an at best health cover of 70% is, well ... the worlds largest Genocide EVER .... via denial of cover. then again it hits 99% of Blacks and Latinos, and Native Americans and then stupid white people ... sadly NOT the correct stupid poor white people ...

This, well ... MACRO economic model and going back over history as to WHAT drives markets ... is what one has to look at.
Interest rates, then Fiscal policy via spending and deficits and surplus ... then ... taxes and specific taxes can destroy sectors ... so too monetary restraints AIMED say at investment loans or margin lending ... same thing.

Then the usual stuff ... supply demand ... population growth, wars, a good one wars. ..

Time and time again. over history, empires rise and fall on how well they treat the normal person. Not how they treat the top 1%.

Trump is NOT fascist, just ... another of the same. All be it pathological and Narcissistic. No conscience, no remorse ... and why say the Shah of Iran got kicked out ... or the Roman empire fell ... and 100 others over the centuries, same thing.

We live in utopia and at times I find both sides of our side painful. Our Libs are SO FAR LEFT .... LEFT of the DEMOCRATS in the USA its a joke. All they are asking for is a fair go, rather than ... enrich .. Bezos so he can have another affair and not pay tax as he just did over 3 years on 17 billion in profits and in fact got a 300 million tax refund.

Is there something wrong here ? Its worse even than Martin Luther kings time and things got better, for a while in the USA but far far worse ... as time has gone on. Not just African Americans, but any coloured person, Latino and poor white person is to be shunned.

Since 1965, healthcare has become slightly more expensive and life expectancy has gone from 65 to 84 ... but the USA which led the world or close to it, till 1980 ,,, is now number 86 out of 200 odd nations.

Impacts, and this cannot be understated .... TAX regime needs to change in the USA. They have no right and whilst their donations for NOW control the USA and basically both parties with a few exceptions, ITS ABOUT TO CHANGE .... a cycle I suppose.

Impacts ? Well ... what would be the profit of Apple if it paid tax ? Down 25% ... how about tax back to 2000 levels as is NEEDED .... down 50%. How will say USA drug companies go getting paid $150 for something they now charge $600 for because they can ? Health insurers overheads are around 22% and they ... well go 0ut the w0indow 0on the main.

The proverbial nightmare tidal wave is ... as always there. This time, well ... its actually obscene to deny
healthcare to the elderly and pensions from t hem ... whilst taxing corporations now at 7% verses 17%.

Before someone ... give me too much grief, on this site, if you have been reading me for a while, you likely KNOW my name, the real one. MUM is the word.

Predicting this stuff, the future, as always, opinions till the passage of time has passed and your either right or wrong. Sorry ... tried explaining ... again ... the last ingredient is a tough one.

Oh and to the person predicting the RBA moves pre election, you may be right, I suspect if anything, EVEN if they DO ... very unlikely PRE election. Since our RBA is NOT run like the USA was, and still sadly is ... via Wall Street, these Macro things are what they look at and discuss. Use to sit next to My favorite economist on the RBA board ... once upon a time !!

For now, I suspect, hot air ... oh and plunge protection team .... IS STILL operating. If you have read my stuff . TRUMP wheeled them out late 2018 because the market corrected, as it does ... to a mere 133% of POST Trump getting in. Now, well its 160% ... its deficit is 4 trillion more ... its debt per capita shocking ... per taxpayer even worse ... and consumer credit ... the nasty expensive stuff given to the DUMB outside the top 1% and you pay 10% if not 20% MORE ... in the USA is UP ... UP ... by nearly 1.8 trillion basically 33% of the LOWER persons wage ...

last but not least, things are going so well ... car finance loans hit an all time HIGH ... of arrears by 90 days or more. In fact 7 million in arrears in 2018 verses the old peak in 2010 ... after the GFC of a mere 6 million.

As per normal, there are few decent forecasting economists ... and I am not one of th em ... fewer still able to pull apart stats and correct methodology, but its whats needed to get even close to a clear picture.

But, the change in USA and its healthcare and taxes, either 2020 or 2024, and lets just say, companies will look like Dick Smith after-woods or say, PDN the $10- Uranium stock now at 15 cents. But that's 2020, I hope ... for the peoples sake ... the majority of them ... but 2024 either way.

This is a long way off. Maybe, I am underestimating stupidity, but as you know even have a filter for that one. And it costs me nothing usually to take a pause. But sadly, I suspect, we breach 3,000 on the S+P, and keep going. Until, well ... that merry go round stops.

Take care and sorry for the ramble if it makes any sense ... that third bloody system, trying to describe it ... when number one and number two scream .... along with number three ... it works and does work ... currency ... oil ... and index stuff. Not easy in this day and age ... due to deliberate buggering of valuations and its gone from bad to extreme the acts post GFC.

Last model ... needs a catalyst ... to make it short ... to TIP the whole thing over, remove all chairs from the merry go round. Whilst I suspect its the destruction of the whole healthcare sector in the USA, it could be the rest of the world telling USA to get stuffed on their debt and want 3% MORE ... for it. Either will do and both are ... inevitable at some stage. Or massive change that totally alters valuation occurs ... collecting 40% of GDP instead of 30% like say every EU nation ... well ... companies will cry ... their earnings will crash and evaporate for the crooks ... charging and blackmailing with your life ... DRUGS ... or replacing operations with NO ... from the insurance company for a 100k operation, here is $500 worth of opioids, one dulls the pain, two on a bad day .... forget that operation ... you dont get paid enough over 10 years to even save for it ... 3 pills and your off your face ... and 4 ... YOUR DEAD. Sad but USA healthcare in 2019. Even if you provide a suicide note, the USA CDC ... calls it a poisoning most of the time, as opposed to overdose or ...suicide. I kid you NOT !! Sad things these statistics.



Anyhow ... set my self up for ridicule as this site seems to love. Predicting the future ... hmm ... one tries for perfection but when goal posts move, as they DO and will ... models move and valuations move.

This one, is yet again, historical amnesia on the part of the greedy and corrupt.

Take care

 

[kahuna1]

Catalyst

Likely potential one .... this from another thread ... a few comments after it ... NOT immediate Catalyst but numerous time bombs that are likely to explode, whether via one way or another.
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As mentioned ...

two issues ... Not Mueller or Russia ... tax fraud ... insurance fraud and so on ... New York state now has the banks records and tax records and is in the process of getting the insurance claims.

Second ... Impeachment. No Collusion with Russia ... never was going to occur. Trump did not arrange the Russian stuff ... he however was lying about his business dealings.

Obstruction ... and deliberate obstruction by Trump was in 10 cases in the report very clear.

Here is an impartial look at Trump V Nixon ....


So do they impeach ? For obstruction and other crimes ? Possibly even knowing one house needs a 66% margin to IMPEACH and its unlikely. A president running for 2020 that HAS been impeached ... and say Clinton was found guilty of it in ONE house of the USA govt ... but the other did NOT pass the full impeachment ... it still sent a message.

Clinton at the time was serving his last .. second term and USA Presidents only allowed two terms. So the action against Clinton who was NOT able to run in the 2000 elections was an aside. In this case however, even knowing likely the Republicans will NOT roll over on trump even in the face of evidence he deliberately obstructed justice, the lower house MAY still decide to impeach.

IT IS NOT OVER >...

The TAX and Insurance fraud cases at a state level in NY are crimes presidents cannot gove pardons for. Trump junior, Kushner and all his children and Trump himself likely to be charged.

Third.
There are now 21 states REFUSING to put a Presidential candidate on the ballot ... for 2020 and poised to pass into law, that a presidential candidate CANNOT appear on the ballot for a Federal election unless they have released TAX returns.

Fourth
It has emerged the extent of Trump directing his cabinet and heads of departments to NOT produce or co-operate at all with any and all investigations. On the tax issue the House, with the power to request anyone's tax returns ... ANYONE ... Treasury secretary Munchin, ex Goldman Sachs, a disgrace his post GS actions and a bank that foreclosed on someone ... taking their house .... owing 27 cents was just one stunt, Munchkin ... refuses to produce as instructed by the HOUSE the tax return of Donald Trump.

I suspect, they may actually go so far as to jail him if it continues.

I look for at times a catalyst for change, a catalyst for what drives markets and big directional moves. I have never seen stuff like this and was too young to follow Nixon on his antics back then.

Political hate, polarization of the USA is so extreme its absurd. With a white house person actually accusing a Muslin new representative of having something to do with a shooting at a Synagogue was another of the racist rants that come out of this place. I might add, the shooter, as with all mass hate killings in USA in 2018 and now 2019, was white, Nazi following, white supremacist idiot. Suggesting he was inspired by a Muslim when his dialogue included hating all people from both Jewish and Islamic faiths, is yet another example of Trump. He even went and mentioned another new fresh politician in the USA AOC, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a Hispanic and called her out for not expressing regrets over the attacks in Sira Lanka when they occurred. Turned out she was in Puerto Rico, visiting her grandmother and internet services STILL have not been repaired there 12 months after a Hurricane.

It is unlikely all of this, will be avoided by Trump. It is impossible for it to occur and whilst the Russian collusion was always unlikely, the obstruction that occurred and corruption in other activities uncovered remains OPEN and unlikely to get better as 2019 and 2020 elections occur.

This is just starting, the fun and games.

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A few comments .... on cycles and catalysts,

The above has at least 5 time bombs if not more. If states introduce legislation removing Trump from 2020 ballot for NOT producing his tax returns. All hell will break loose.

Having the Treasury secretary arrested is NOT a good look.

NY state irrespective of this will proceed with Tax fraud, insurance fraud and banking fraud cases and Trump has NO power to obstruct or avoid.

...
As mentioned the plunge protection team that Trump reformed to my disbelief because the market had a correction late 2018, still continues. THEY must be kidding !!

In Trumps mind the value of the stock market is some voting tool ? Or popularity tool ?

Tax paid via USA corporate is 7.3% verses 17.6% on profits in 2017. OF COURSE if you hand me another 10% in profit AFTER TAX ... and then strangle the Central bank, in this case the USA Fed ... and no more rises ... will occur as the New USA fed chief, is sitting in the corner sucking his thumb ...

But on valuation .... 10% more profit .... multiplied by a PE and its about 30% PLUS for stocks.

Lets ignore the 22.7 trillion deficit and crumbling roads, crappy healthcare and half your pension.

Anyhow ... long term ... this tax cut ... verses even basic healthcare is inhumane ... but most effected are black, brown, old and sick and as such have no voice, until they vote.

Nothing immediate on the catalyst side, but so many time bombs race yet again verses greed and stupidity.

Debt ceiling needs to be raised, again ... tick tick tick ./..

3000 on the s+p 500 a mere 2% from here !!

I note the CPI the other week in the USA. At 2% ... and NO oil price rises seems to hit there, EVER ... ll the increased costs via TAXES called tariffs on 50% of stuff the USA imports from some place called China, never hit the CPI in the USA. Nothing new in this for USA, it needs to and has under-reported CPI for years, It need to do so to erode the NON saving for pensions and old age ones in Social Security. If you dont do a cost of livings adjustment, EVER ... to reflect real CPI and inflation ... and under report CPI as well, the REAL pension never adjusted to reflect say that CPI v real inflation or the version USA has produced post 2000 is 2% reported v actual over 3% or a gap of more than 1% . Each year if you erode a pension by 1% or closer to 1.5% ... in 20 years its 75% of what it should be.

I do have a point here. ...
How corrupt and how economically abusive the USA is to not only its own people but the rest of the world. Say bonds linked to inflation, if you under report it by the tune of 1%, whats 1% on 500 billion a year saved ? Tax wise, the USA and its non payment via its protected via political donation corporate ... and Apple paying tax at 3% here, ignoring 30% rate is a better one ... some just ignore we have a tax system here ... all together.

ON CPI ... my point ...

GDP came out last week. GDP is an adjusted for inflation number. I note, the CPI is well just BS in the USA ... but an aside ... its produced by the BLS department.

GDP by the BEA, Burea Of Economic Analysis. I have over the years pulled apart GDP reports since 1983, but at times, even they astound me.

So CPI, whether right or wrong ... 2% via the BEA itself last quarter or 1.9% ... oil rising ... petrol prices rising and any chance of avoiding Chinese new more expensive goods gone as tariffs still in place and rising ... I would have expected say the BEA to have a similar if NOT HIGHER CPI measure.

In the GDP this measure is to adjust it to AFTER inflation and its called a deflator. So out comes the number, 3.2% GDP growth ... Turnip head goes on twitter ... greatest number ever ... well not quite .. but listened to idiot economist after economist and YEP I have qualifications as well as post grad ones, not a word of negativity .... so I looked.

My eyes burnt out, as is typical ... looking at how the USA corporate and oligarchy has taken over.
So what was the inflation number, remembering it was 1.9% for this department last quarter .... the other reporting department went oh its UP and 2% v 1.9% NOW ....

Without cheating ... make a guess ? and remember if you report a LOWER CPI or inflation UP goes the GDP as its inflation removed, a NET after inflation growth.

How far ? Back in 2007 several things sent me over the edge. USA reported a 5% plus GDP growth when it was CLEAR, marking to market Merrill Lynch and Citibank bond holdings late 2007, THEY had lost all their capital. Back then, they moved the CPI or DEFLATOR down 2% plus ... in a single leap ... oh and a few other tricks pulling apart the report over 40 hours, import prices at $65- at the time for oil and export prices at $90 ... much like now, but oil was going nuts, not as bad in 2019, but one gets the drift.

Anyhow .... deflator went instead of even a massive understating of inflation at 2% like the other department it went ... from 1.9% to 0.6% on a seasonal adjusted basis.

Markets react to headlines ... mostly so an aside ... but ... well the swamp of 2007 is back, with friends and interest owing. If one just used 2% GDP growth would be ... not 3.2% but 1.8%

Things are NOT what they appear. I do have some serious issues with tax theft overseas voia USA based corporations and it being called USA GDP growth ... again, one of those ticking time bombs. Much like the one off boost to USA stock valuations, its a fantasy to provide health and welfare at 30% of GDP when the rest of the world does it at 38%of GDP tax, let alone the USA healthcare system costs 3 times ... # times MORE than anywhere else.

Not a catalyst as such USA producing fictional number is the NORM, its when efforts reach a crescendo and the underlying seems to be doing the opposite. In this USA debt is exploding as corporate pay at 33% the rate they did in 1990, It cant go on. Political nightmares all over the place. Polarization is extreme and rising as are the hate crimes and Trump stoking it.

Add to this, EU and others moving to REMOVE and make criminal actions of say Gates and Microsoft not paying 500 million and in fact 550 million in tax to say Australia every year. Booking sales via Singapore to avoid 300 million GST ... it is illegal. So too Google in this respect. ... let alone not paying tax on profits generated via sales here.... or EU nations.

Tick tick tick ...

Dont expect USA to change its tax laws ... its sadly too corrupt and driven via corporate donations and lobby groups and think tanks ect. EU and others will move ... and if so ... 30% of value if the USA did reverse its insane fiscal policy or late ... Eu moves and earnings are in the toilet for them. Halving I suspect it from here ... the S+P 500.

Fun and games. Oh and ... golly ... 2020 ... Universal healthcare if a democrat gets in ... well not Biden ... I syuspect he as he always does smells some woman and falls on his sword. Drug companies, health insurers, private hospitals charging $5,000- a day for a bed that costs say $800- . Insulin that costs $40- a vial to make, with retail and so on, $150- in 65 nations ... in the USA its $600- ...

They are my top few picks, but ... until then ... RALLY RALLY RAALLLLLY USA ....

3,000 it a magnet ... then again at over 120% of GDP valuation based upon a ot off tax theft. misery for the people inside the USA ... no healthcare and crashing life expectancy which ... again they report its falling but someone who gets to see the doctor 20% the rate of a Person in Peru ... Latino ... Peru with a great universal healthcare system ... supposedly according to billionaire running the department who produces the CDC numbers,,, in the USA without medicine they live 5 years longer by not seeing a doctor !!

Never seen the likes of the insanity we have now ... one has to go to 1930's and Germany to come close. Tick tick tick .... for now just a deafening tick.

 

[kahuna1]

Quick update ...

Well S+P hit a new high ... and I suppose it still goes up. We are however in 1929 and 2000 style valuations on the USA side. Still the 3,000 level irresistible and that road block of technical points at 3,150-75 ... and I might add 125% of GDP valuation on the fundamental side.

Drivers still there and giving a tax cut ... increased overseas tax theft in the USA with tax on profits paid falling from 17.6% to 7.3% is astounding. Tax paid overseas a joke and even with a 13.125% discount tax rate and being able to claim tax paid to overseas govts against this, a mere 670 billion of unpaid profits was repatriated out of o0ver 4 trillion stolen from other nations.

NO impact on the USA corporate tax collections.

Whats new ?
Not much.
More hot air around Mueller reports and whilst clear obstruction occurred. It is irrelevant whether crime occurred or not, obstructing an investigation is a crime ....
Tax issues ... Trump sues the bloody Federal govt to block release of his returns !! Are we living in the twilight zone ? Several of the Trump Execs in jail ... not just Cohen have given testimony and documents that show clearly CAUSE for requesting these documents. Tax fraud, insurance fraud and bank fraud.

This case has no chance of standing up.

Barr the Attorney General Trump appointed clearly lied to the house, now refuses to appear. It is an aside and he refuses to release the unedited report to the House and they have the SAME if not better clearance for secret documents.

Going on, Mucnkin, Treasury secretary, ex Goldman Sachs .... ex owner of the bank that foreclosed on an 80 year old woman for a 27 cent unpaid debt and tried to take her house ... well he is refusing to release Trumps tax returns ... again ... a legal fight.

What a lovely place.
Added to this ... Pompeo a cretin for a very long time and secretary of state got his wish and OFF goes an Aircraft carrier to Iran. Rhetoric out of his hole ... whoops mouth is astounding and disturbing. 9/11 I would point out occurred via 15 of the 18 being from Saudi Arabia and funded from there. Sadly, USA cant and will never admit Iran is more progressive in 2019 ... women are not persecuted in the streets ... Iran will never be forgiven for kicking out a despot they installed called the Shah of Iran and then holding USA embassy staff hostage for a while.

Moving on ...
Iran Contra convicted war criminal who is now USA secretary for Venezuela .. a guy who armed animals the contras, who took great joy in doing awful things, he is the Trump ambassador ? It is of course about USA interests and the fact the president they supported is now in jail for war crimes speaks volumes about this. Anyhow, the Koch brothers drive this one, and they still want their fertilizer factory back and with the only refinery around that can process the heavy oil Venezuela produces in great volume, I do wonder if they will ever learn.

But two potential conflicts, to distract us.

Meanwhile, to again distract us, Trump whilst on the toilet announced over twitter he would impose 25% verses 10% tarrifs on CHina. AN then add the 200 billion not covered and make it 25% on everything.

A few comments on this.
USA is and continues to act ... via its navy ... in shall we say a very provacitive way and 3 incidents recently v the Chinese made me blink.
Second, the China trade deal, is this like how Australia gets raped by Microsoft for example with 3.9 billion in sales, but it does not book 3.3 billion of them here, it does NOT pay 330 million GST .... and on the total 3.9 billion ... going on its profits after tax and R+D /// Australia should be getting some decent share of the 1 billion PROFIT it males here ... so another 300 million company tax. In total 630 million tax SHOULD be collected ... yet we get ... 60 in GST and 30 in company tax, so a missing 540 million a year.

Is China going , well we prefer NOT to have this occur ? I suspect a lot of this crap is being served up.

At some stage, CHINA will say NO !!
USA seems to forget Japan and actions pre WW2 and Pearl Harbor similar stuff went on. Japan of course back then was doing not good things in Korea and China ... China is NO saint ... but USA did the same stuff in trade pre WW2 .... then about 6 months prior to the attack seized all Japanese assets and we all know how well that went.

History and amnesia rules the day.

Markets, well IGNORED it overnight. They got crushed in China, were down over 2% in the USA ... only to close basically unchanged. Well donw 0.5% ...

Out comes more idiotic crap this morning after the USA close and down yet again when the USA confirms its, well going to put the screw on China again. Confirms the new rate, the new goods covered.

The person and people who pay are NOT the CEO's who benefit from these crappy tax rules the USA imposes and so too the top 1%. Tthe people pay for these idiotic tarrifs and its ok if your rich and it costs a bit more, but for the lower 80% last year their healthcare insurance went up an astounding 9% ... white goods ... 10% .... about to get smacked another 15%.

This idiotic polciy WILL and DOES not a thing for USA manufacturing. They just go via Mexico ... or some other nation ... but NO new manufacturing will go on in the USA for the simple reason that if you impose a penalty rate of 25% on imports, its NOT something that will be there forever and whilst you MAY be able to produce goods cheaper than overseas with that margin, but if Trump sits on the toilet again and has another brainwave .... the 25% IS GONE.

none of this is good for world trade. NONE of this will end well.
Not the war mongering, not the blackmail tactic just pulled.
Chinese will dig their heels in either way. They may capitulate but if your nation was held to ransom by a bully, would you buy an Apple product ? Or a USA product ?

Anyhow, for now the benifits of USA companies not paying tax DOUBLE the number in 2018 verses 2016 and a massive boost to NPAT ... after slashing tax paid .... and then slashing medical cover for the rest of America whilst ignoring the near 23 trillion debt .... if one multiplies by the p/E the taax break ... and then stock buybacks, it explains why the USA market is at all time highs.

Not I might add compatible with HUMAN life.
Falling life expectancy.
Old age supposed free healthcare NOW 80% end up on emergency healthcare which is a 15 year old with a box of band-aids and aspirin for all ailments.
Medicaid recipients in 1980 .... 20 million .... the emergency healthcare thing. Its now about 70% of the services it provided THEN in 1980 v 2019 ... verses now ... less than 40% of Medicare we have here or UK NHS.

So now 2019, there are 80 million on this crap healthcare .... yes the population is 50% more ... so this gone from 30 million adjusted to 80 million and at end of LIFE ... free over 65 Medicare .... people run out of money and have to resort to Medicaid which is just awful and that number just hit 80% of them at end of life.

Record unemployment USA .... record NOT counted as being attached to the workforce. Record over 65 people working I might add ....

6 million more in 2018 no medical cover at all ... in the USA.
Record numbers behind 90 days on their car leases .... only 6 million in 2010 .... now 7 million ...

But for now ... USA markets have little to do with anything other than ... what the top say 20% dictate.
Ironic that for the first time in 100 years White male life expectancy is crashing. Last time was in the 1915-18 period and influenza and world war one, had a lot to do with that.

Lets slash tax some more. Amusing the supporters of Trump actually voted to have their benefits cut even more.

Oh ... RBA ... rate cut ? Still doubt it ... not for the election reasons, just think, well its unlikely to make any difference if they did. I suspect strongly they know that.

Our election ? zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Interesting place USA ... is it regional war ... superpower war ... trade war ... or Civil war as the people strangely are demanding healthcare ?

NONE of it good ... but just simmering away ... a nation cannot collect 30% of GDP and provide healthcare when it costs actually 3 times anywhere else. It costs everyone else close to 40% of GDP in tax.

 

[kahuna1]

No rate cut ...

and this just out ..
Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He will go to the United States on Thursday to continue trade negotiations, the Ministry of Commerce said.
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/dip...vice-premier-liu-he-go-washington-trade-talks

Out of the party paper ... a blunter message and basically saying whatever ... they are in no rush and will be patient whilst doing CHINA's peoples interests first despite pressure.

Basically despite provocation and threats, they will still be going ....

enuf .. USA market got back its losses as though the threat was not made again.
It was ....

But Mr Market knows best and the 1% loss in overnight tiding now a mere 0.1% loss after the above announcement.

So many things going on both domestically in the USA and unprecedented ones and also on a global scale, all of course ignored for now. The 3,000 S+P is like a magnet for the computer driven things.

For now ...

 

[kahuna1]

Oooh ...

this pot is glowing red hot. Every day .... whilst I suspect we go to 3,000 even 3,150 in the S+P 500 ... we a re dealing with 1929 ... 2000 valuations for the USA.

Not here ,,, we have not even hit the 2007 highs nor the EU on the main ..... all due to giving a toss about the people and yep charging MORE tax .... v USA no tax for Buffett gates and Bezos and a lot of other massive political donators. Spend 700 million in lobbyists, 700 under the table and 700 via right wing think tanks, so 2.1 billion and you pay 1.5 trilli0on less tax. Great investment.

Anyhow ...
Overnight. Donny Trump is again sabotaging the negotiation process. Trump is delusional with his ideas and he IS serious about hitting China over the head with a stick.

Here is his tweet ....

Donald J. Trump‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump May 5

For 10 months, China has been paying Tariffs to the USA of 25% on 50 Billion Dollars of High Tech, and 10% on 200 Billion Dollars of other goods. These payments are partially responsible for our great economic results. The 10% will go up to 25% on Friday. 325 Billions Dollars....

....of additional goods sent to us by China remain untaxed, but will be shortly, at a rate of 25%. The Tariffs paid to the USA have had little impact on product cost, mostly borne by China. The Trade Deal with China continues, but too slowly, as they attempt to renegotiate. No!

Well ... he and this theory is unhinged. It will not bring any manufacturing back to the USA and its at best a threat tactic doomed to fail. More likely a distraction from other issues.

I sadly just read his twitter of late, sources .... FOX news .... stuff me .... they are rated so far right on bias its insane ... his next favorite source ... Judicial Watch which is ultra right wing and described as non factual and conspiracy theory central ... the next one ... The Daily Caller ... a mob formed by none other than Tucker Carlson the Fox news guy ... who regulatory displays his views on the very far side of the right. Basically all of this is eaten up not just by Trump but his 60 million twitter followers as being even close to factual.

Amazing ...

Anyhow .... Another development is House and the deliberate refusal to produce documents and even witness's has reached a crescendo .... whilst a a carrier groups sails to Iran and Pompeo who has a bloody awful record of lying about threats along with Bolton who hates Iran ... seem to be running foreign policy and Trump is openly stirring unrest and directing non compliance with production of papers, witness;s and meanwhile deliberately trying to stuff anything and everything.

China is just one of 5 things he has going on.

Sadly, there is little hope the state prosecution investigations will not eventually take action against his children and execs.

Deutsche bank has revealed they actually have his tax returns for some years, and hence the reason they are being blocked at a federal level by an annoyance suit.

The AG is now in the process of being found in contempt, unlikely to get through, but as we sit, the fabric is unraveling. Where the hell this one ends .... is a big call.

If he is unseated in 2020, the legal nightmare and one not able to be avoiding jail time is a real threat. In the meantime ....

His best deal is to step aside and all claims both state and federal against him and his spawn are dropped.

be afraid.

A cornered animal does anything to escape. Especially one without a conscience or remorse.

 

[kahuna1]

"More than 400 former federal prosecutors have signed a new letter claiming that President Donald Trump’s interference in the Russia investigation, as described by special counsel Robert Mueller’s report, should have led to “multiple felony charges for obstruction of justice.”

The letter, circulated by the anti-Trump group Protect Democracy and first reported on by the Washington Post’s Matt Zapotosky, is pretty brutal. According to the former Justice Department officials, Trump’s actions as detailed by the Mueller report, which ranged from interference with Mueller’s attempts to acquire cooperating witnesses to an attempt to fire Mueller, constitute severe inference with the federal inquiry. In fact, they say, the question of whether there’s enough evidence to charge Trump isn’t even a particularly tough call.

“All of this conduct — trying to control and impede the investigation against the President by leveraging his authority over others — is similar to conduct we have seen charged against other public officials and people in powerful positions,” the letter’s text says. “To look at these facts and say that a prosecutor could not probably sustain a conviction for obstruction of justice — the standard set out in Principles of Federal Prosecution — runs counter to logic and our experience.”

This is from both sides .... not just Republicans but democrats as well.

This does NOT cover the NEW obstructions .... from Barr refusing to testify, to documents being shredded to Treasury Secretary refusing to provide tax returns ... despite the law,


The law ... has gone ... its unraveling ... the rule of law.
then again its Trump ....

 

[lusk]

The NSA employes 30,000 people spends billions per year and data retentions everything. If there was evidence they would have it. Because there is no evidence they switch to obstruction.

The Turkey show trying to pin him is doing nothing more than strengthen his position. Its just too hard for the people against him to accept that he was voted in fairly by the people.

 

[kahuna1]

Yipee ...

USA
Underlying driver of USA markets is still intact.
That being tax paid has gone from 17.6% on profits to 7.3%. This is a massive support to earnings and as such that a USA company reports better earnings AFTER TAX is a no brainer.

Whilst Trump declaring war on Iran, China, Venezuela and so on ... sent the USA market off its highs, the fact it almost got into correction territory at its lows was a surprise 2,800 v 2950 new high ... this driver of value is still there.

USA fed is still muzzled and unlikely to raise.

That Trump is openly now obstructing justice is amazing,historic and in many ways irrelevant. The system is now so corrupt that even actions of the worst president back in the 1920's on taking bribes for oil fields pales in comparison to 2019. Trump surpassed Nixon acts some time ago, what is different is the republican party will not impeach him and why Nixon quit, was NOT that he was guilty, it was because he was going to be impeached and voted out, hence he walked. Not this time, NO ... Trump will stay.

For the record, the number of cases, Federal and State is now 30, and NOT mainly to do with Mueller report. Latest is Deutsche bank money laundering reports which were NOT reported to authorities. They were highlighted internally at least 10 times but not passed on above. Kuschner his son in law also implicated. For the record Deutsche bank already has been fined 20 billion for money laundering to the Russians and this is just more of the same. Trump himself unlikely to be pinned on any of these but his kids, son in law ... unlikely to avoid them as time goes on.

China and this trade spat, well, is suspected either via USA belligerence on so many global issues from Iran to China to Venezuela, USA has in this case with China, permanently and totally destroyed any relationship or hope of this. It is now clear USA is openly attacking via proxy the Chinese based Huawei which funnily enough spends similar amounts to Apple on R+D and this is at 20% the cost per employee of Apple. In the end, USA is not winning any friends in the EU and the attacks there are just as open and the EU is in direct conflict with the Iran policy of the USA let alone it is now clear the EU is a target for similar Pro USA trade war tactics.

Bottom line the USA even now has permanently if not totally destroyed its brand name, it is not far away from that. Forcing China to say develop its own NON USA based chips or tech software say with Google Andriods is a mistake when a nation pumps out 700,000- very well qualified computer programmers a year. Time will only tell on this one.

Tax wise, USA corporate theft overseas has risen to levels never seen before and EU making tax havens illegal is just one of many steps nations are having to take with USA antics and tax theft overseas. Again like non payment of USA domestic tax a positive, supporting the absurd USA valuations, the other, a massive and assured hit to underlying profits after tax when the rest of the world say NO ... to the antics of Microsoft and Google and Apple and a very log list. But for NOW, still intact.

What is a worry, only real one, is the debt ceiling needs to be raised in about 8 weeks in the USA or mandatory budget cuts get enforced. This for me is the big issue. I doubt, given the belligerence and open defiance Trump is displaying any agreement will ever be made. Not a good thing and whilst 30 cases create a lot of hot air, with cause as they are all WITH MERIT, this is a political disaster not just internally but internationally. China and Huawei its largest phone maker and the worlds largest phone maker, is openly being attacked along with almost daily provocative comments or actions by the Trump administration which are absurd. China as I suspected prior would go GET STUFFED and it has done so. Being backed into a corner and not just China but policies and economies of the rest of the world are in similar straights, I think longer term its a massive mistake and the end is not a good one. Australia for example has 5 tech companies refusing to comply with tax law and booking sales to avoid GST overseas let alone open tax avoidance to the tune of 30 billion a year.

That's not free trade, its theft if not extreme violation. That our new PM is lacking in a backbone like previous ones is sad. We are needing just a fair ... FAIR payment of tax. Even ANY payment would be nice !! PLEASE grow a set of balls and say NO !!

Technically and valuation wise the USA FAILED to even break in any meaningful way the old high at 2,950 or so on the S+P 500. The irresistible 3,000 target not far above that, it FAILED to get there. My own line in the sand at 3,165 is and target still in play, but ... well ... the above is destroying underlying fundamentals quicker than even I can type. It does NOT mean we don't get there, but its less than likely if not impossible that world events and total destruction of overseas markets occurs prior to sanity prevailing. Valuation wise, up here .... USA side ... NOT OURS .... USA wise ... its into 1929 and 2000 type levels. Driven of course by NON payment of tax and it makes things look rosy.

On this, USA house at present grilling drug chiefs and it is a disgrace which the USA hides and ironically most effected, the old and mainly white for now over 65's vote for a system they hope is fixed, but clearly run via the Drug Oligarchy in this case. An asthma preventer a common one, price hiked 10 fold in 10 years. AIDS preventer costs $8 here and $2,000 in the USA, insulin at 4 times the price ... it goes on and on.

Something terribly wrong with the inhumanity of genocide via denial of medical treatments.

Not that these increases ever hit the USA CPI as its weighting on healthcare is 7% when the USA spends over 20% of its GDP in healthcare costs and cover has gone from 90% top 70% post 1980. So in effect its REAL weighting should not be 20% but 30% !!

Anyhow ... nothing changes ..

Australia

New highs and surprise election win. We do live in utopia and either party had similar policies in a broader sense. Labor more tax more spend failed and we have a steady as she goes policy.
Markets loved the removal of the franking credits issue, or so it seems. I have to say I felt like a bank teller prior to the election and whilst dividends just went ex, Banks lost $1- or so, then went even further near 12 months lows taking out the panic, I was going cross eyed buying things with 7% yields ignoring franking credits.

Blink ... and they are 8,9,10% and more higher. Banks. Massive little things. One side was silly and here we are where, well, $23.89 for NAB low verses $26.20 so $2.31 gain in 3 days close to 10% I am less amused holding and have reduced as such. Similar stories from WBC and the rest. Underlying issues still remain and whilst I would not be surprised to see more strength, the state of their real earnings even ignoring the housing market is not great and not likely to get better as time goes on. But for now, party party party till the next erosion in earnings appears.

RBA as suspected again did not act in May, now its June ? This one backed by more plain speak from RBA head and I suppose they do it this time. Not that it will make a bit of difference. Relaxing lending rules and margin banks need to justify lending will have a greater impact as will tax cuts when they come through. So, whilst a good thing, the markets showing this with a post GFC high. Not suggesting we don't go higher mind you !!

China impact, and non buying of USA goods and even LNG and Pork likely helps us out a bit. Dollar lower again a positive for exporters, but USA dollar strong whilst its fiscal side at 22.7 trillion debt and rising looks like a train wreck, for now will take the weakness of the AUD.

More inclined to play the ranges, as I tend to do, and my massive overweight banks pre election and thinking it may be painful post Labor win verses a 7% yield now replaced by a gift and thinking the financial side is in days gone from cheap to expensive. The old highs of banks above $30- post royal commission and new capital requirements make the current likely highs say for NAB not $33- with a dividend cut to boot, ... its old high is irrelevant to a great extent .... one hand 10% off for more profits diverted for capital reserves and 10% more for lack of real growth in earnings, well I have $27-28 as the insane old high. So here ... we are not too far away. Basically sell $26-28 .... HOLD and IGNORE ... depending on dividend and when its being paid $26-24.50 and buy $24.50 to $23 if your lucky. I must admit I got a bit carried away at $24- pre election and just post dividend.

Other stuff ... RBA cuts ? Ho hum ... the overseas backdrop of actions has me one hand concerned when the USA is at 1929 valuations, all be it based upon non payment of tax to anyone anywhere and a medical genocide of the mainly colored and poor whites, which would make any despot psychopath proud, eventually these cycles, even empires rise and fall. For the very same reasons. Greed and corruption a major force and not taking care of the needs of the many verses the greed of a few is what has unstuck them all. Removing say if the Justice Democrats got in and universal healthcare in the USA occurred in post 2020, the impact of tax being paid by the top 1% and CEO's at say 20% v 7% the valuation of the USA side would crumble. Unlikely as it seems in 2018 with Biden favorite for the Democrat side 2020 election, who is weak pathetic form of Obama and he was very very bad for the interests of the USA outside the top 1% is more of the same corrupt stuff.

Of course, polls get it very very wrong. Trump got in. Betting odds on Liberals went from 4/1 to $3.25/1 out to $5/1 just pre election. USA needs reform and corruption and non tax payment makes even Greece look good. One cannot I thought have 66% of all bankruptcies about medical bills wi0thout a revolt. Wrong. One study following 6.2 million cancer patients 2000-2016 found 42% went bankrupt within 2 years, and its likely the number was over 50% as they couldn't contact 20% of them !!

Amazing cruel and inhumane world out there. As always I kiss the ground of our nation and our politics are so far LEFT of even what the Media in the USA calls socialists and communists there, who merely want tax justice and burdens shared by all society along with Universal healthcare. I don't think the liberal party is socialist its just like labor more for the people !!

For now, if RBA acts, and I still think, they should keep their ammo dry but resolved they likely do cut .... for now ... play the ranges with an eye to very big issues overseas without the noise. Does China stop buying USA all together ? Forcing them to develop the missing parts of tech they rely upon others for and say operating systems .... the USA has done itself no good of late with its actions v most o0f the rest of the world.

Lastly, Climate change and whilst some claim the election result was about that, a rejection to some extent of the issue. I would note some things are occurring which are off the charts for IPCC predictions and for example, Arctic temperatures 20 C degrees above normal. Methane levels exponentially rising, which is 100 times worse than CO2. USA at an Arctic conference was going on abut new resources and oil and gas and trade routes. Ignoring all other issues like the fact that if Arctic ice goes, sea levels rise DOUBLE expected by 2100 and 2 meters verses 85 cm.

Below the ICE in the Arctic, buried for a million years frozen is a permafrost of frozen dead vegetable and animal matter which contains 1.8 trillion tons of CO2. Along with that, 10 billion tons frozen methane on the sea beds and possibly 50 billion tons and this, at 100 times the impact of CO2 added to now thawing vegetable matter adding 1.8 trillion tons of CO2 this event is the equivalent of ALL the CO2 man has produced since 1850 and then some.

CO2 just hit 415 PPM for the first time in 3 million years. ICE over the Arctic very accurately measured via satellites just hit all time April lows. It is where it is at the end of summer, in September and of we have an Arctic Blue event for the first time, which well .... will make the 2050 -2100 region sadly interesting and forget 2 C Degree change and try 4,5,6 .

But to the USA Pompeo its an opportunity for trade ? Or more oil and gas ? Interesting in their world even heating water and it expanding is denied. Let alone CO2 being a greenhouse gas and warming things. I would add, with amusement, half of the lower end of NY by 2100 under water, Miami which even now is installing pumps to keep high tides out, well ... good luck. New Orleans, well, its already below the water table and without the pumps which keep the water table 30 cm below ground, I wonder if the sea rising will effect them ? Apparently not.

Just, something not to panic about, we will be gone. Or I will be, but it appears the start dates seem to be getting closer, again .... and the impacts MORE ... and the IPCC did not and does not contain any of these things because, well ... the USA and Saudi and Canada refused to sign off on it unless they were REMOVED because they were possible outcomes. NOT scientific and occurring. Gee does 40 degrees F or 20 degrees C melt ice and temperatures of 84F verses a normal high of 40F make any difference to ICE in the Arctic ? Apparently not.

Amusing this world, and So so glad I live here in Australia.

 

[kahuna1]

Technically and valuation wise the USA FAILED to even break in any meaningful way the old high at 2,950 or so on the S+P 500. The irresistible 3,000 target not far above that, it FAILED to get there. My own line in the sand at 3,165 is and target still in play, but ... well ... the above is destroying underlying fundamentals quicker than even I can type. It does NOT mean we don't get there, but its less than likely if not impossible that world events and total destruction of overseas markets occurs prior to sanity prevailing. Valuation wise, up here .... USA side ... NOT OURS .... USA wise ... its into 1929 and 2000 type levels. Driven of course by NON payment of tax and it makes things look rosy

We are to the first irresistible line in the sand .... 3,000 in the S+P 500 ...

Nothing like the USA lowering tax by 10% that corporate pay.
Second is the USA Fed muzzled.

Our markets given the weak Royal commission and our own RBA lowering rates is following lockstep.

Iran and other issues, ignored ... even potential ones.
Much like 2000 ... tech sector priced like there is no problem ever to be seen with some companies with a mere 150 mio sales but a market cap over 10 billion.

Still some ways from where the 3,150 -75 SP level where the tide is already out, but the idiocy of markets nowadays is massive selling at lows .... and massive buying at the highs.

I did think the opposite was the idea, but what do I know.
Meanwhile the lower 50% in the USA officially have NEGATIVE net equity and no wealth.
The lower 80% own NO shares or not much and the top 80% own 93% of all wealth.

Funny thing markets and yep we follow the USA, but our lower 80% have 36% of the wealth .... not 7%.

In 1929-30 ,,,, USA run by the same clowns, with the same no rules policy ... USA actually was making 85% of the cars and 40% globally of all manufacturing.

Today its number 10 .... and a lot of that is questionable that's included.
Time for a holiday and come back when the prices more reflect reality.

Without a functioning middle class, let alone an impoverished lower 50%, much like in 1929, the lower 40% lived in poverty. In 2019, record numbers of people in arrears on car leases, medical bankruptcies number one cause and well ... if your paying in effect 3 times what the rest of the world is, sure my manufacturing numbers look ok.

Take care ...
We finally are there ,,, and getting closer .... but this one, painful to watch for human reasons.

Cheers
Mark K. ...

3,165 .... still suspect S+P but betting or predicting stupidity at times ... and for the first time ever, record deficits, record non war defence spending coupled with low low low interest rates ?

 

[HelloU]

"Time for a holiday and come back when the prices more reflect reality."

am i able to ask what you are actually doing with your assets right now (as distinct from any musings).

(i am cautiously buying with the 50 and the 500 converging despite indexes at highs)

 

[kahuna1]

Well ...

Shares now slowly into cash as the madness peaks.
Either way, patience and selling into all time highs, even too early, always gets rewarded.
Whilst it appears, at peaks ... the rally will never end, it does and then the massive buying at peaks ... like not over 7 months ago was massive selling at lows and for the ASX 200 ohh ... 1,400 or so points ago.

Whilst not getting paid much on cash, and likely missing the dividends if they go too much higher an d I get out of some that are being paid Aug, Sept .... the risk reward for me is not good.

Only time will tell. Yes, it is as strong as 20 men today, USA just drifted up, a MELT UP ... I tend to as the title implies BUY into dips and SELL into tops or ones I suspect are tops and often is the case,


Each to their own ....

 

[HelloU]

thx
our previous highs were jan18 and aug18 and aug14 since the GFC, did you also start to sell sell before these highs also or, if not, do you see something different about right now (Jul19 compared to those those previous highs).

My next question will be .... if u r selling now cos the market is too hot, what types of things will trigger a future return to the markets with that cash? I only ask cos i started some selling in 1st/2nd week of June with similar thoughts and the market remained bullish ...... and i am tentatively buying again (not that it matters what i do)

 

[kahuna1]

Well ...
Selling slowly ... still have USA stuff. It operates on wildly different things.
Suspect, yes there is still 5% in USA to go and 7,000 or so on ours.
Just ... wary for may reasons on these highs. China, Iran and a very long term overvaluation of the markets verses GDP.

Things on your second question go in cycles and at times of late massive ones, on our market whilst reducing banks on the bounce, pre election they were 25% LOWER than exits and slow ones right now.

For me, things that really drive overall markets, interest rates, tax and other risks ....
For now, all taps are open in the USA one side whilst the underlying stuff just gets more and more woeful.
Risk and price are related and as price falls, they pay me to take on risk, whilst most are selling and as it rises to absurd levels or over excited, its time to reduce because the price is making it more risky to hold.

Very big picture..... often 20% if not 40% between one and the other for a share and any peak and trough in index ... minimum 8% .... usually 8-12% ... or once in a while much bigger.

Some shares of course have their own cycles ... and its a matter of having a group of say 30 one likes and picking their eyes out on the lows ... and opposite when they go nuts, Banks got spanked twice ... in recent times and not proud to take 15% or 20% in and out.

Take care ...
Not for many this path ... its buying into panic and selling into everyone being a legend ...

 

[kahuna1]

Well MAGA ...

NOT .... Fed muzzled ... USA democracy is purchased and debt ceiling a joke, a record deficit in the best economy EVER ?
Really ?..

France went get stuffed Facebook paying a mere 1% tax rate when its margin is 45% on sales ... Trump responds like a Facebook exec and now threatening tariffs and on wine ? because a nation wants to charge tax on profits generated on its soil ?

Free markets .. let alone economies .,.. are to be dictated by USA corporate greed ?
Australian TAX looses 30 billion EACH year in unpaid tax. Some ,,., Like FB ,,, book sales overseas and do not even pay GST ....

I kid you not the ATO publishes the turnover, profit declared and TAX paid.
Facebook claims it paid 1 billion of tax overseas in profits in 2018. Well we got 15 mill and between EU biggest nations making up over 50% of this overseas income I come up with less than 100 mio USD paid, NONE to some Eu nations !!

Globally the world is in serious TROUBLE. Massive fiscal trouble when we are being dictated to by AMAZON and FB and a group of corporate crooks who in Amazons case in 25 years HAS NEVER ... EVER paid any tax on profits, claimed deductions of 10 million on low price issued options to executives, never paid NEVER paid a dividend and in the USA is 19% of the retail market and NEVER paid a fine for some of the stunts its pulled on sellers on Amazon who if they sell a lot, Amazon magically has a similar product appear and your viable business ... goes down the drain and now only appears on page 3 of any search.


Meanwhile, USA hit lowest birth rate, GDP numbers all revised down and even then they are meaningless totally ... as the lower 50% now have negative net worth and the lower 80% even the upper middle class ... thats the 60% to 80% wealth bracket share a mere 7% of overall wealth.

But what drives markets, for now, interest rates, mean it in the USA likely goes now ... we have passed that first milestone of 3,000 on the S+P 500 to likely 3,165.

Outside this, USA could lower rates to MINUS 3% and it still would not improve the lower 80% real economy. This move has nothing to do with anything other than the top 1% ...

As for nations now shedding 1-2% in GDP in not collected tax .... Like France .... Like Australia ... we slowly get strangled. Our nations and NOT bein g hite AMERICANS in the top 1% we are ... well irrelevant and if we complain as France did and imposed a tax to try and collect some value out of the likes of Google and Facebook and Microsoft has not actually gone far enough. When you need 25% PAID on company tax profits and your getting 1% on turnover so about 10% of what you should .... they are stuffed and they must collect more tax there and in fact tighten to compensate.
Eventually, someone will blink.
.
Will it be prior to Trump bombing Iraq ? Or as he mentioned stopping Afghanistan via nuclear weapons or maybe North Korea ? Or Venezuela ? Then of course 2020 and he is unlikely to be re=elected despite FOX news efforts, ... will he actually give up office even if beaten ?

He just gave yet another speech where he claimed fake immigrant voters rigged the 2016 elections and despite investigations in 40 states NONE of this was seen .... NONE of it..
As to telling France what can do, its same for Mexico and Canada and China and Germany and UK and Australia and so on.

Meanwhile USA came 11th out of 11 lowest of OECD nations in healthcare the bug developed ones, came 37th on World Health ranks and likely about 100 if they used the real numbers. As always a cost of the the wealth flowing to the top, the numbers on Medicaid and emergency healthcare in the USA at records up from 20 million to now 80 million. That is a 15 year old with a box of aspirin for your cancer. Its rated at 30% of even the not so good UK NHS health service ....

Bliss .... then again media has every second add in the USA either a defence contractor or healthcare company don t expect any media on it.

Our market, ASX 200 via rate cuts only going one way. UP .... like the USA for now. Sadly USA eventually the debt size and fact their population is NOW not growing with NET negative illigal immigration and ultra low legal immigration and record low interest rates, coupled with rising over 65's retiring ... who is going to pay for the 25 trillion or over 200,000 USD per person debt the Federal govt holds when the lower 80% average income is a mere $32,000- a year ?

Nothing new in this other than the release valve is HUMANS and the fact that 80% of people end up on emergency Free Medicaid in old age, all assets gone, BROKE .... has impacts on life expectancy but to say Mr Zuckerberg or Mr BEzos who the latter has run a company for 25 years that recently hit 1 trillion market cap and has NEVER paid a cent EVER ... in corporate tax, never paid a dividend, something is either wrong with ME .... or with them.

Even the upper middle class, who YES retire with some assets, but being sick in the USA is massively expensive and more and more gaps of not covered and costs for even simple medications at 4 times anywhere else in the world, even they end life on the whole BROKE.

That said. the top 40% ... are in the USA living as one might expect to normal OECD life expectations and the top 10% as always live OECD best plus about 5 years so to 89 .... the USA average is officially 76.8 years .... its lost 7 years post 1985 v Australia let alone 25 OECD top nations ... if one takes out the top 40% of USA and uses a real average life expectancy of the USA not some fiction so about 75 .... the lower 80% and their life expectancy just hit 69 or about the same as Ethiopia or Sudan...
As always a cost .... if one bothers to look.hhhh

USA policy post 1980 when political donations started and now run the goverment and corporate tax is now 30% of what it was. I am serious and even in 2000 USA collected 207 billion corporate tax and the economy was 45% of what it was now. So in other words its lost HALF .... post 2000.

Of course, to say Facebook who actually claimed 5 billion tax deductions for shares granted to Zuckerburg and fellow board members at $10 and when exercised at $120 share price ... they got a deduction for the difference between the two .... $110- and didn't have to pay tax.
Silly Mr Macron in France expecting Facebook to pay tax .... THEY will de=friend you !!
..
Amazing the dictator who ... runs the world now ... is openly threatening France for actually going .... well ... we are merely asking for a share of what we already paid for via the R+D deductions that are already built into the NET profit which of course Facebook paid NO tax to anyone for 60% of the world business it does ...

Silly me ... this will work out fine. That is if Trump doesn't decide to invade North Korea first or ... as Bolton said, nuke them First ... I am sure China will not mind a nuclear cloud over them. They reacted so well last time USA invaded and only 3 million Chinese troops sent McCauther back to the 45th ....

Ahhh bliss .... but for now ... USA goes up.So too do we .... based upon interest rates. Our Govt here, has the wrong policy and balancing the budget with 2% inflation and 3% GDP growth ....we could spend 5% just like the USA but not on tax breaks to the top 1% or 0.1% ... and get things moving. Even 2% of that.'

Since our debt to GDP is a mere 30% NET ... including RBA assets and Future fund, its not as though we are ... even close to USA at 107% of GDP right now or EU average of 94% of GDP ...

We basically are being very loose via RBA policy and then doing the opposite via fiscal policy with that idiot fathead Morrison and Flckerberg even more moronic as treasurer. Yes it makes Sense to have the handbrake on via fiscal policy and the accelerator down via monetary and 1% rates.

Then again, bigger scheme of things, its an aside likely to be irrelevant as the USA seems to think its 1875 and they lead the world. Well since the population globally is 7 times larger and the USA, even with 325 million, only 100 million REAL consumers left .... all the rest on some sick death march of low wages and medical blackmail .... the sad fact that China alone has 700 milloio0n well funded middle class AND the EU with 300 million WELL Funded ... middle class and another 400 million around the world, USA with a mere 100 million relevant all be it mainly racist selfish for a lot of them, will not dictate to the rest of the developed and rich outside world for too much longer.ass

Either Trump exits, and hopefully not Biden as he is likely another bribed corporate fool .... but eventually the rest of the world cannot afford to have such a leak of tax via Google, Microsoft, Intel, Amazon and a long list of others, mainly USA based .... draining the welfare of the world at will.
It is sadly that serious. Given up on Morrison and his boot-licking is a disgrace.

China and India both said get stuffed as well as so many others, which, is evolving onto what the world will look like in the not too distant future. EU and 27 nations same thing.

USA first and stuff the rest ? Or Stuff USA ... or should I say the top 1% and also the racist openly so of late the whole USA and send her back to 3 out of 4 born in the USA ... all women ... so they should shut up according to facist pig with wig .... and my my ... their skin is NOT white !! and SOME have different religious beliefs . Golly ...
kkk

We are in the 1920's for USA where 3 million Klan followers .... about 5% of the adult population were card carrying members. Trumps daddy got arrested at one Klan rally, Gates father ... well he was an Eugenicist a well documented white ONLY one and Buffett his daddy a Birch Society follower who among other things was a holocaust denier .... Buffet supposedly had a normal upbringing if you read some books, but ... well a fiction ... Daddy was one of the original Senators and far right even of Trump ... far far ultra right and America First party member.
Yipeee ....

hmmm

you stupid ignorant French person expecting Facebook to pay tax !!

Meanwhile Our PM ... seen stuffing 6 pies down his throat at the footie ...


I found this on Insulin which is a subset of the USA healthcare nightmare ... a good view the first 5 mins or so ....



I am however no holding my breath ... Biden should he beat Trump and Trump actually leaves office which ... is a maybe, his recent rants on fake voters is absurd, will not change the USA medical side.

For NOW and I stress this ... NO TAX .... LOW RATEES ... drive USA higher .... for now ... likely 3,165 on the S+P .... the thing is a house of straw.

Democrats most of whom are talking universal healthcare HAVE NO IDEA .... NONE .... Berine Sanders whilst I wish for better outcomes for USA and its PEOPLE not the racists pigs in charge or inhumane greed on display .... USA spends 20% of GDP on healthcare. Its about a 65% level or EU nations healthcare. The top 40% of course very close to EU standards .... the lower 60% awful and like a weird torture but worse, a death march. It is SICK.

Insulin and other drugs for common things such as asthma at 5-10 times Canada or Eu or Mexican prices without any goverment intervention. Insulin invented in 1922 and patent sold for $1- ... YES $1- costs about $25 for a vial .... for a serious users needing 6 or so a month, so $150- cost, sold for in Canada for $225. USD similar her not on PBS .... ... in the USA its $1,400- plus.

It goes all across the medical side from a hospital bed ... at 5 times Canada to a broken arm at 4 times cost to an MRI at 4 times and so on.

Most of the 65 nations with universal healthcare ... it costs 8-10% of GDP in TOTAL ... for near 100% cover. USA well cover at best is 65% .... and costs 20% of GDP. So in reality its 30% of GDP cost for full cover, if they were stupid enough to pay it. Massive profits and self interest of Mr Buffets medical insurance business and other cretins all around ... so every third add on Public Tv is A drug company and then the others are defense contractors ... I am serious. As for political donations .... both are massive and mainstream media has massive revenue from both of these groups so dont expect ANY coverage or unbiased coverage ....

Reality is .... missed by Democrats and stupid BERNIE SANDERS .... whilst a big fan of universal healthcare and better outcome for what USA is, a sad racist death camp being run by KKK types as Trumps father was or Holocaust deniers ... like Birch Society founding member Mr Buffett senior was or Eugenicists ... like Bill Gates daddy was and stop those no whites breeding, the favorite charity of both Gates and Buffett is none other than Margaret Sanger's planned parenthood who describes Blacks as morons and imbeciles and Daddy gates ran it for many many years, this, view, ... well anyone ... NOT American not white as imbeciles.

USA just told France because they object to a NON TAX paying ... tax thieving cretin Zuckerburg, that they would impose tariffs and sanctions because France said ... well we will tax someone conducting business on our soil and COLLECT tax is absurd.

USA ... Trump actually not a person who has ever drunk, actually said, as the expert he is, that he always liked American wines and NOT French ones. As someone who lived in the USA, being nice, American wines ... taste like their taste in fast food as being gourmet.

This to one side. The inhumanity of it. Let alone a dictator threatening nations with war, or nuclear bombing and North Korea now joined with Afghanistan ....

healthcare wise if 65 nations spend 8-10% of Healthcare universal close to 100% cover .... USA is number 37 on World health and really close to 85 .... if one was unbiased, 11 out of 11 worst on OECD developed nations and it is AT best 65% overall cover, but pays 20% of GDP ... so for 100% cover 30% of GDP ... if they Said get stuffed and paid $125 for Insulin instead of $800 .... via a single payer, USA would over say 5 years go from a cost of 20% of GDP and a mere 65% cover to close to 100% cover and a cost likely 10% of GDP.

This ... is missed astoundingly ... and amazingly by even the better Democrat 2020 universal healthcare opponents of Trump. Are they IDIOTS ? Biden is another bribed and corporate democrat like Obama taking massive donations to keep things the way they are. Bugger the people.

USA would HALVE .... or close to it its overall healthcare costs in the system WHILST HALVING the overall total cost. No medicare ... type universal payer is going to pay $1,300 for a MRI to any provider when it costs even with a decent profit margin UNDER $200 --- .... this is HOW sick and perverted USA is now.

As to tax ... and USA say dictating things, and so so many sick things going on Yemen and arm sales for genocide to Guatemala a nation with an awful crime rate and murder rate 23 times Australia Trump has pressured them to be declared a safe haven and keep out those damm .... colored Hispanics. Let alone Venezuela and Iran ... where the latter, will never be forgiven for being a minority religion and being not willing to follow USA.

I really cant say where it ends.
USA with the Fed about to CUT RATES ... despite all time highs on equities, mind you a lot fueled by Tax theft, threats of violence, sanctions and a death camp being run by ... a massive heal-care sham, ... and a defict topping 1 trillion in 2019, a Debt to GDP ratio cast in stone of 125% of GDP in a few years and NO income for those outside the top 20% or 1% ?

The world ... the global economy and viability of even developed nations is under threat. Not so much by idiot Trump, but when say any viable competition to even a Google cannot compete as they pay NO GST on sales and NO tax on profits, which makes any competitor impossible to have any hope is identical across say banking where an EU nation with 40% of GDP in tax collected has its credit rating 5 levels below USA with LESS debt to GDP .... LESS and USA collects 30% of GDP in tax and has unfunded liabilities of uncollected pensions which, well ... they clearly are ignoring and intend to.

USA ... is out of control and has NO RIGHT to dictate the taxes and collection of taxes inside some other nation.

TAX is the issue on trade and whilst China may subsidize things, USA does the same for say Boeing. and does even more so via encouraging and protecting outright theft of Taxes overseas.

But for now ... USA lowering rates, USA corporate paying NO tax .... pretending Facebook pays 1 billion in 2018 overseas tax when I can find a total ONLY under $100- Million USD of any tax paid, on income and I am up to 75% of all overseas sales ... ALL of it ... does it pay it to some fantasy tax haven ? It appears so ... Google is worse, Microsoft a joke Chevron ... wow ...

For NOW ... yep USA goes up.
How about if they did actually PAY 20% tax to someone .... they WOULD HALVE ... the tech company valuations overnight. How about, which is unlikely, but will occur, Drug companies and USA insurers ... hospital providers and so on ... GOT paid 25% ... of what they now enjoy ?

This makes say 2007 look tame, not as immediate, the driver or catalyst is NEEDED ... and heaven help them if on of the Democrats does ECONOMICS and is not in the pocket of corporate like Biden is and Obama was and Clinton as well ... and actually does something for the people verses the scum and changes things. How amazing to NOT pay tax above $120,000- on social security or medicare at a 15% rate, this is the joke of Drip down economics in the USA.

Meanwhile Australia, our fathead PM ... loosing 30 billion in tax revenue a a year, stuffed 5 more pies in his face.

Sad ... so so sad.

Unfortunately most NON USA nations facing a macro doomsday. Lowering rates in the USA with the high cost debt of credit cards and car leases ... at well over 10% above cash rates and NOT moving or likely to move, they could lower rates to minus 5% ... the deficit is NOT going into welfare or new roads or education, its going to MR BEzos and his divorce and new shares he issued at 10% the current market price which ... is a tax deduction ?

Sadly ... its occurred before and the outcome over history is ALWAYS the same. We here, need to stand up and go GET stuffed much like France. But with a jelly blubber for PM ....

heaven help us.

Did we vote in Trump ?

 

[kahuna1]

Quick update ...

Well S+P hit a new high ... and I suppose it still goes up. We are however in 1929 and 2000 style valuations on the USA side. Still the 3,000 level irresistible and that road block of technical points at 3,150-75 ... and I might add 125% of GDP valuation on the fundamental side.

Drivers still there and giving a tax cut ... increased overseas tax theft in the USA with tax on profits paid falling from 17.6% to 7.3% is astounding. Tax paid overseas a joke and even with a 13.125% discount tax rate and being able to claim tax paid to overseas govts against this, a mere 670 billion of unpaid profits was repatriated out of o0ver 4 trillion stolen from other nations.

But what drives markets, for now, interest rates, mean it in the USA likely goes now ... we have passed that first milestone of 3,000 on the S+P 500 to likely 3,165.

Nothing changed for now 12 months .... in my view. The above is just a summary of this .....


Tech side USA out of control .... stealing tax.
I note France google settled its tax theft .... for a mere 1 billion Euros.

Trumps threat about taxing wine from France another pile of hot air. No wonder CH4 levels are exploding ... that's methane ... or is it Trump appointing a coal lobbyist as head of the Environment for him or ... scrapping controls over leaking Methane from fracking ? I suspect Trump is the biggest emitter.

I await fathead Morrison our PM actually forcing the missing 3 billion not paying GST easily visible from Microsoft, Google and Facebook ... be enforced here.

As to the non payment of tax ... I note some Tax office actions on this front being stymied by a corrupt ? Government here . I question why they would appoint the advisors of this tax evasion as the advisors on recovering it.

Its clear what they make, what their turnover is and WHAT is being stolen.

In the meantime, ASX 200 rises like magic and the banks everyone hated not so long ago up from say $23-24 to now $29 ish so a massive rise and one that happened by magic last few weeks. One was a decent risk reward, the other, now up here I am less amused and giving back the gifts from Santa last year. I note some other radical moves like say Star Casino and a rise on fire of 10% ... or say CGF ... Challenger which has had issues went up over 10% in 2 weeks on really no change. I hold, but reducing as the air is deflated.

Not much to add.
Trump still being Trump and talking astoundingly about tax cuts ... social security tax cuts when the USA deficit just hit 1.055 trillion this year and total debt at 107% of GDP at 22.6 billion.

This person also thinks the USA can lower rates to negative territory ? Really ? With tax collection due to corporate donations LOWER than it was in 2000 and the economy in dollar terms has rissen by 240%, so a missing 350 billion or so. In relative terms its 37% of the tax rate of 1980 ..... 45% of the tax paid in 2000 !!

USA bottom line with healthcare which is awful and covers only the top say 30% .... but costs 20% of GDP .... so cover like Canbda or GErmany would cost 30% of GDP or 3 times anywhere else.

USA cannot afford even what it pays now for a simple reason. It collects a mere 30% of GDP in tax overall via all levels of govt, the EU collects 40% ...

EU lowered Debt to GDP post 2013 from 86% to 80%.
USA spent and spent its brains out .... NOt really ... other than guns guns guns and paying for healthcare at 3 times the rate .... so not effective.
USA raised debt to GDP from 101% of GDP to 106% and by 2023 with baby boomers retiring at DOUBLE the rate of say 2008 .... either they SLASH effective cover even more or ... USA debt to GDP will be 120% by 2023.

Trumps healthcare plan is ... pay no tax personally, NO tax for Bezos .... Gates ... Buffet .... and slash cover for the lower 70% and sadly that covers 90% of those not with white skin.

Interesting times.

Not anti billionaire .... but when their political donations now see anyone on above $120,000 USD not asked to pay social security tax or medicare tax for over 65's ... the issue is a joke.

I found the following amusing



Sadly Gates and Buffet have great PR ... reality is their favorite and only healthcare charity in the USA is abortions and NOT a cent for the 10% with no cover and the 20% with awful cover ...

Time will tell what occurs in 2020 ... and with nations with a spine enforcing their bloody tax laws.

Our PM is a spineless fathead who is scared of upsetting Trump at the cost of 20-30 billion overall tax stolen each year !!

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Nothing changed for now 12 months .... in my view. The above is just a summary of this .....


Tech side USA out of control .... stealing tax.
I note France google settled its tax theft .... for a mere 1 billion Euros.

Trumps threat about taxing wine from France another pile of hot air. No wonder CH4 levels are exploding ... that's methane ... or is it Trump appointing a coal lobbyist as head of the Environment for him or ... scrapping controls over leaking Methane from fracking ? I suspect Trump is the biggest emitter.

I await fathead Morrison our PM actually forcing the missing 3 billion not paying GST easily visible from Microsoft, Google and Facebook ... be enforced here.

As to the non payment of tax ... I note some Tax office actions on this front being stymied by a corrupt ? Government here . I question why they would appoint the advisors of this tax evasion as the advisors on recovering it.

Its clear what they make, what their turnover is and WHAT is being stolen.

In the meantime, ASX 200 rises like magic and the banks everyone hated not so long ago up from say $23-24 to now $29 ish so a massive rise and one that happened by magic last few weeks. One was a decent risk reward, the other, now up here I am less amused and giving back the gifts from Santa last year. I note some other radical moves like say Star Casino and a rise on fire of 10% ... or say CGF ... Challenger which has had issues went up over 10% in 2 weeks on really no change. I hold, but reducing as the air is deflated.

Not much to add.
Trump still being Trump and talking astoundingly about tax cuts ... social security tax cuts when the USA deficit just hit 1.055 trillion this year and total debt at 107% of GDP at 22.6 billion.

This person also thinks the USA can lower rates to negative territory ? Really ? With tax collection due to corporate donations LOWER than it was in 2000 and the economy in dollar terms has rissen by 240%, so a missing 350 billion or so. In relative terms its 37% of the tax rate of 1980 ..... 45% of the tax paid in 2000 !!

USA bottom line with healthcare which is awful and covers only the top say 30% .... but costs 20% of GDP .... so cover like Canbda or GErmany would cost 30% of GDP or 3 times anywhere else.

USA cannot afford even what it pays now for a simple reason. It collects a mere 30% of GDP in tax overall via all levels of govt, the EU collects 40% ...

EU lowered Debt to GDP post 2013 from 86% to 80%.
USA spent and spent its brains out .... NOt really ... other than guns guns guns and paying for healthcare at 3 times the rate .... so not effective.
USA raised debt to GDP from 101% of GDP to 106% and by 2023 with baby boomers retiring at DOUBLE the rate of say 2008 .... either they SLASH effective cover even more or ... USA debt to GDP will be 120% by 2023.

Trumps healthcare plan is ... pay no tax personally, NO tax for Bezos .... Gates ... Buffet .... and slash cover for the lower 70% and sadly that covers 90% of those not with white skin.

Interesting times.

Not anti billionaire .... but when their political donations now see anyone on above $120,000 USD not asked to pay social security tax or medicare tax for over 65's ... the issue is a joke.

I found the following amusing



Sadly Gates and Buffet have great PR ... reality is their favorite and only healthcare charity in the USA is abortions and NOT a cent for the 10% with no cover and the 20% with awful cover ...

Time will tell what occurs in 2020 ... and with nations with a spine enforcing their bloody tax laws.

Our PM is a spineless fathead who is scared of upsetting Trump at the cost of 20-30 billion overall tax stolen each year !!

A very reasonable summary @kahuna1

We do live in interesting times as even the Member for Chisholm would admit if being grilled by Andrew Bolt.

Since I went to cash I've been in and out of some big stocks, as they seem to rise in this chaos, and also divi picking.

The tiddlers will be decimated when and if a Crash occurs.

gg

 

[kahuna1]

Just a few adds to the above.

Yemen has actually conducted over 100 attacks via drones in the past inside Saudi Arabia.
Some drones shot down previously. clearly ... VERY Clearly ... they were made in a garage and domestically IN YEMEN.

Why ? Look closely and the wires are not even soldered, they are joined with cheap insulating wire.
I would also add, there have been previous attacks on Saudi Oil infrastructure.
Whilst its nice to pretend, Iran was involved which maybe it is, the reality is Saudi Arabia has stated clearly its intent is to exterminate all Houthi of the Shia Muslim faith in Yemen. All of them. Around 30 million are in dire straights and 10 million starving.

Only analogy in history is the 1943 Warsaw Ghetto uprising where 300,000 mainly Jewish people rose up against the Nazis. That was 1% the size of what is going on.

USA maintains a total air blockade on the nation. So too a sea blockade where everything is blocked. All bridges and roads into and out of the nation Yemen also cut off.

Other than the Saudis and their other Sunni Muslim nations who joined them and 15,000 USA mercenaries .... the only nations directly supporting the USA in this in any way are the UK ... and NOW Australia.

I do wonder, and the tape of the Saudi Journalist who was murdered in the Saudi Embassy in Turkey ... I have not listened as its too disturbing to hear a man going " your suffocating me" prior to that occurring and him being chopped up.

Yemen ... is ... 300,000 or so dead this year likely according to the United Nations which the USa just slashed its financial support for and no longer feels its accountable for any action by its military anywhere and pulled also out of various bodies meant to protect against soldiers getting out of hand.

Whilst perfect world, there would be no war, that sadly is a dream.

9/11 was an awful act of state sponsored or protected terrorism which killed 3,000 Americans.
In the Iran Iraq war, Iraq, with full support of the UK and USA did not a thing when Iran was the target of 350 chemical warfare and biological weapon attacks. this is on even Wikipedia and the killed and injured were well above Yemens total for even this year. UK even provided the chemicals used to make the agents.

Post 9/11 the Middle east has been torn asunder. Afghanistan, Libya, Iraq and Syria just to name a few. If the total deaths is under 3 million or 1000 times the 9/11 amount I would be astounded.

Since Yemen and its genocide seems to be missing from the debate as to WHY .... if Yemen were to trow a tantrum of similar size, would say 30 million seem to many ... or 300 million dead since that's 1,000 times the size.

This is just perspective and whilst not a fan of Iran and some of its policies, where is it allowed to stand up being the minority Muslim Shia faith and say here is some food and arms for self protection ?

I have no idea. too hard.

It is alarming and only can pray for a peaceful SANE resolution and we all live in peace.

Some of the claims by the USA that Iran was involved or launched cruise missiles are, well, absurd for the Cruise missile aspect. One sadly may learn WHAT a cruise missile does the hard way, if they decide to attack Iran. A cruise missile verses a soft non fortified target or building uses normally cluster munitions and they are baseball sized things around 5kg and the missile contains 40 or MORE of them.

The attack had 19 separate distinct HITs .... so suggesting even ONE was shot is sadly absurd.

My favorite claim by the USA in relation to Iran was when a USA warship 1989 ? shot down an Iranian airliner with I think 289 people on board. The CLAIM by George Bush Senior, now dead, was the plane was approaching the warship, descending and on the ID it was squawking it was claimed it was a military one. Upon the investigation which occurred .... the plan was rising, going the opposite way to the direction of the USA warship and was clearly squawking via radio an Identification as an Airliner.

George Bush senior was asked about this about 10 years ago, did he regret it ? Or wish to apologize ? And he said NO to both.

Not sure the current USA regime is any better. Nor sadly Australia.

Last ... the drones, ones that can go 900 km ... cost a mere $15,000- ... most components are made in China. Scary world and now its been revealed the Achilles heel of the matter, sadly not going to improve.

Iran, USA mocked them and their capabilities and so on, only to have a drone costing 300 million which they believed invulnerable to be knocked out of the sky and the wreckage which due to gravity drops straight down the recovered and displayed. USA claimed of course the incident occurred in international airspace, which .... again ... shows the total BS going on.

Missile wise, Iran is scary and if attacked will retaliate I sadly suspect many times over.

On Markets, a JOKE.
Seriously .... NO drop in USA or global equities ?
Either I know not a thing about history or risk or the market is now without any humans running things.
When say 9/11 occurred the market dropped a lot.
This, if anything is potentially WORSE .... a delusional one term president facing likely prosecution if he looses in 2020 ....

Supporting the regime that, well makes some actions of WW2 look tame ?

Sadly, and not to be alarmist, Iran has had little choice but to be proactive in its own defense. As to say supporting the minority Houthi in Yemen of the same faith, all be it NOT with any material support since the USA closed all Sea and Air routes and Saudi's all land based support is gone ...

Strange world. Sadly so. Here the graves of those who fought gallantly in Gallipoli and so many other causes to stop this sort of thing, we are on the OTHER SIDE ....

Help I cant breathe either not sure iof its the stench of USA or the Saudi person with a plastic bag over my head.

Be wary of markets. Risk adverse is always the best option at all time highs let alone when they ignore ... IGNORE the destruction of 50% of the oil capacity of the worlds largest oil producer.

Possibly the strangest and most staged response I have ever seen in my life. Not suggesting panic .... but, gee ... all time highs as the foundations just had one leg removed let alone the other structural issues.

All so Trump could tear up a deal that was working with the nuclear issue for Iran.

 

[kahuna1]

I will end with a happy 22 trillion dollar debt birthday party.

Well now 12 months on .... its 23 trillion despite record low unemployment and the head imbecile is talking another tax cut ?

USA I would like it to kiss say 3,150 on the S+P 500 in its madness

Its taken 12 months but we are close ....

Still the 3,000 level irresistible and that road block of technical points at 3,150-75 ... and I might add 125% of GDP valuation on the fundamental side.

And again from the past ...

Technically and valuation wise the USA FAILED to even break in any meaningful way the old high at 2,950 or so on the S+P 500. The irresistible 3,000 target not far above that, it FAILED to get there. My own line in the sand at 3,165 is and target still in play,

Ahh ..

we are close. No trade deal ... China well its moving forward without the USA.
Still the market rises.

Nothing like not paying any tax and the headline rate fell from 26% to 14% and is the biggest driver of valuations .... that's about 18% of the recent 70% Trump era rise.

Add another 6-7% for now legal overseas tax theft .... and that's 25% of the 70% rise.

Natural inflation and GDP growth are another 10% ....

so that's half of it !!

Stock buybacks .... add another 15% of the 70% rise and we are at 55% ..

the rest is low rates forever and insane tax deductions in the USA where Facebook issues shares to the idiots in charge at $30- and the stock price is $130- so they get a tax deduction of over 5 billion in recent years which I might add is a fiction and makes the earnings look good when its a bloody fantasy.

Such is the age of Trump.

Whilst we are there ... or close enough to the 3,165-75 target I was muttering about 12 months ago when the market was having a cow ... UP over 30% in 12 months off those lows, my confidence when the USA insanely is talking tax cuts when their fiscal side is a train wreck could cause more idiotic rises.

Enough however is enough. Not about to ignore my computer models which worked even during insanity of 2000 dot com and got the exact day of the GFC. This time, possibly not so lucky .... when rules and laws of finance are ignored. Risk ignored .... and god forbid Warren or Sanders gets elected in 2020, they will reverse the tax cuts, close the holes .... that is if they get a landslide and hold both houses. That alone will reverse USA rise above every other equity markets by 50% of late and take it all back.

Wealth tax for cretin like billionaires over there who pay 14% tax when a person on 50k pays close to 35% tax ... and well all hell will break loose. Of course ignored ... for now ... and lastly a universal healthcare system like medicare. That sector between insurers and drug companies who charge 4 times the price of Canada and generate NPAT of 225 billion USD .... whilst not immediate change, the super profit of charging 10 times as much say for Insulin will evaporate along with 90% of that 225 billion profit.

Doing the sums ,,, on this ... at a P/E of say 20 .... reversing out the valuation and loss of ghoulish profits built upon dead people will wipe 10-15% more off the USA side.

Basically Democrats cannot be allowed to win ... so 2020 election is going to be nuttier than 2019.

So far we have had 17 billionaires crying as well as Bill Gates ... crying and saying he will vote Trump .... so much for his hot air about more tax, Buffett and his 31 newspapers editorials would make Fox news blush ... that is if Fox news people could read. Neither is nice and their favorite charities are building the Mexican walls and abortions for people of colour.

Washington post and MSNBC ... running a media blackout on Warren and Bernie Sanders ... sadly BEzos was made to pay $15- an hour when Bernie Sanders introduced a bill into the senate in the USA called Get Bezos with the soul goal of getting workers he was paying $8- an hour a full $15- an hour. Washington post recently on one single day, despite being called leftist leaning ran 26 anti Bernie Sanders articles in just o0ne day. CNN not to be outdone did a poll of Iowa and Sanders was leading with 22% ahead of Biden and then Warren and the 5 articles they did about that poll, not o0ne mentioned BErnie Sanders was ahead.

Its going to be fascinating with Bloomberg entering the race, yet another idiot billionaire and his stop and frisk policy whilst mayor of NEw York saw 500,000 African Americans frisked each and every year, basically every one of them ... each year.

I am not sure which is the more delusional Trump or Bloomberg or the other cretin USA billionaires. I am NOT anti billionaire and ours pay 30% corporate tax not 14% .... PAY 25% basically for capital gains not 12% .... and the tax rate does not drop at 150k by 15% as Social Security and Medicare need not be paid by the rich in the USA.

There is a vast difference between say Andrew Forrest of FMG and the billionaires in the USA. VAST ... differences and I applaud their savvy or hard work or inventions ... and YEP they pay tons of tax here, but its not the case in the USA. Buffett boasted his 15% tax rate and Gates was paying 12% last time he shared it.

In the meantime, 2020 I suspect could be totally mad. Trump .... impeachment is unlikely via the Senate needing to have 20 Republicans cross the floor which is unlikely. Meanwhile, I suspect .... SUSPECT ... many Americans are looking at this and going enough.

FOr the record the median wage in the USA is $33,000- and of that $5,500- is needed to be paid in tax and if your from a family ... take another $5,000- off for medical not covered.

Median wealth in the USA is ZERO ... net wealth ... the bottom 50% HAVE NO ASSETS.

NONE.

The white ... media seems to forget say a 35-55 year old African American woman who works full time has assets of $1,000- and the White Woman has $42,000- in assets.

Amazing stuff when there are nearly as many Latino and African Americans as whites and then we have the poor white folk and whilst many are Trump supporters especially older ones, younger ones are more likely to be Democratic voters who WANT Change.

In 20108 USA on average lost 4 months life expectancy, the top 20% mainly white with decent medical cover actually gained 3 months and the lower 80% adjusting for this ... LOST 5 months in a 12 month period of life expectancy. This I might add is with even seriously cooked numbers.

Enuf.


Good luck and ... well ... anything goes in 2020.