Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

TSLA - Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ)

It's a new world VC, haven't you noticed, it is all about the "ME" now.
No matter what the issue, no matter what the cause, no matter what the social implications, everyone now feels their personal belief and ideology is paramount to everyone else'.
That's why vocal minorities are maneuvering the herd, the real problem is the vocal minority are actually growing in number, so investing will become more and more difficult.
Musk is looking after Musk, the small shareholders are hoping he will make them rich, it isn't something I'm comfortable investing in but doesn't mean it isn't a good investment.
You just have to believe a lot in Musk, he now has a lot of say in what Tesla buy and sell, not unlike FMG another of your favorites.
Not really many current founding CEOs take reasonable and sometimes down right tiny pay packets, Bezos at Amazon for one.

But this Musk deal might open the window to a whole new world of unfriendly deals for share holders.

That’s why I sold, I believe in the possible future of Tesla, but it’s just to icky now, I will keep a few TSLA as a hobby, but it won’t be much less than 1% of my portfolio 50 shares is it.

I was excited when musk said last year he might begin a stock buy back at Tesla, but it will take 10 years + just to buy back the shares gifted in this pay deal, and by then who knows what other pay deals have gone through
 
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Some interesting background info, going back 20 years.

 
Some of the left leaning commentators and shareholders having a cry about a pay deal that was approved by 73% of Tesla shareholders in 2018. And yesterday it was approved again by the majority of shareholders, because a deal is a deal.

The original deal was made when Tesla shares where worth pittance, and there was a great chance that the company could fold and go bankrupt. Elon was offered a ridiculous pay deal that could have seen him fail and earn nothing or succeed and be rewarded for it. Almost no financial guru thought that Elon would pull it off, that is create the mega company that Tesla is now.

It is not up to some socialist judge and disgruntled left leaning people to change the rules after the fact. It is up to the owners of the company, the shareholders.

Elon is one of the greatest thinkers of future development in the world, his involvement will see continual development and growth. Take him out and the companies that he is involved in will go the way of Apple, resting on the past laurels and creating no new groundbreaking technology. What has Apple delivered since Steve Jobs passed away? Nothing, everything they have was either delivered when he was in charge, or in the pipeline.

Elon has started severl goround breaking initiatives, all are progressing fast. People that have a complaint should take the time to do some research and see what has been going on for the past several years at Tesla. And stop belittling shareholders for the way they voted, the majority believe in the future path and want to give it the best chance possible, they know that it is high risk, but high risk is also high reward.

To all the whiners, I understand your disbelief at how high the payout will be but that is how a market economy works. If you don't like, go live in Russia, China, Vietnam, or any other socialist controlled country. The sad thing is that Australia is not far behind those countries at the moment and heading further left faster than ever.

  • Originally approved by shareholders in 2018, the record-breaking compensation package comprising 303 million stock options at a discounted price
  • Back in 2018, shareholders approved Musk’s pay deal, with 73 percent voting in favor. However, a Delaware court chancellor later invalidated the package in January 2024. The judge, Kathaleen McCormick, ruled that the process used by Tesla’s board to create the plan was unfair to shareholders.
  • Tesla’s stock price skyrocketed nearly 1,700 percent between approval of the original pay package in 2018 and late 2021. But the stock price has since made a dramatic reversal, shedding more than half its value, including nearly 27 percent so far this year.
  • Musk used the June 13 shareholder meeting as a symbolic gesture to prove investors still believe the package they approved six years ago is fair.
View attachment 178711

Here is the official vote count -

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Updated Jun 17, 2024, 03:54 pm EDT -
“We have to make it affordable”: Musk seems to be holding fast to a future where a Tesla is more affordable than it is today. “For most people it’s not a question of whether they want a Tesla. They simply do not have enough money to afford one. So we have to make it affordable, that’s essential,” Musk said.
 
Updated Jun 17, 2024, 03:54 pm EDT -
“We have to make it affordable”: Musk seems to be holding fast to a future where a Tesla is more affordable than it is today. “For most people it’s not a question of whether they want a Tesla. They simply do not have enough money to afford one. So we have to make it affordable, that’s essential,” Musk said.

I reckon that Musk made a mistake when talking about his plans for building affordable EVs.

The original plan was to build a new model that was slightly smaller and a lot cheaper than the M3.

Then, while the M3 was selling like hotcakes, he changed the plan to bringing the cost of the M3 down significantly and making the base model M3 the affordable option. This caused problems, the value of M3's dropped across the board, existing customers weren't happy, resemblance between the base and top models is almost undistinguishable for the average consumer.

Back to the original plan, build a new affordable model. And with that update, the SP has slowly gone

Tesla's Bullish Momentum Building Up

Summary​

  • Tesla, Inc. stock underperformed by 28% this year amid concerns of higher interest rates affecting premium cars.
  • Technical indicators suggest bullish momentum for Tesla stock, providing a strategic opportunity for long-term investors.
  • Despite delivery drop and revenue slump, Tesla remains focused on growth, industry dominance, and cost-efficiency programs.

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Sundry Photography

Investment Thesis​

Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) has been under immense pressure recently. The stock has already decreased by about 28% for the year, while the S&P 500 has gained more than 14%. The underperformance comes amid growing concerns that higher interest rates pressure the company's premium cars.
Since our last coverage last quarter, Tesla's stock has entered a consolidation phase, trading sideways. This allows the market to digest its outlook and provides a strategic opportunity for long-term investors to accumulate shares. Technical indicators show positive signs of impending bullish momentum.
Finally, despite recent manufacturing and delivery setbacks, Tesla remains focused on growth and industry dominance. Key strategies include price cuts to make vehicles more affordable, ramping production of new budget-friendly models, and enhancing in-house battery production to reduce costs. Cost-efficiency programs, including staff reductions, aim to lower operating expenditures and sustain competitive pricing.

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Data by YCharts

Bearish $125 Low or Bullish $236 High for 2024 Amid Renewed Momentum​

TSLA has experienced several shifts in price range consolidations over the medium term. Following the Fibonacci retracement and extension levels, the lower-low price trend derives $125 as a pessimistic price target for 2024. Similarly, the change in the polarity price trend leads to a price target of $200 by the end of this year (on an average basis). On the upside, the price may reach $236 in 2024, derived from a lower-high price trend in line with the 1.382 Fibonacci extension.
Interestingly, bullish momentum is resuming in the stock price, as observed in the volume price trend (VPT). The continuation of the momentum, moving forward, may bring higher-high price moves towards the average or optimistic price target. Observing the alignment of the VPT line's emergence above the annual average line with the relative strength index's (RSI) recovery from oversold levels points to the potential for a high upside in the stock price. The RSI line's progression towards 50 solidifies the assumptions of the technical bullish outlook.

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Author (trendspider.com)

Delivery Drop and Revenue Slump Despite Price Cuts and Expansion Efforts​

Despite the company initiating significant price cuts, vehicle deliveries were down by about 8.5% to 387,000 cars in the first quarter, marking the first decline since 2020. This also marked a 20% slide from the record 484,507 cars the company delivered for the December quarter.
While the automaker attributed the decline to a temporary shutdown of a German factory following power outages and supply bottlenecks, the market could hear none of it, opting to push the stock lower. CEO Elon Musk has warned that vehicle delivery growth rates will be notably lower in 2023 and only improve on central banks cutting interest rates. Amid the disappointing delivery numbers, Tesla reported a 9% drop in first-quarter revenue to $21.3 billion, falling short of analysts' expectations.

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CNBC

The drop was even steeper than when the company's operations were affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Automotive revenues were down by 13% to $17.38 billion, with net income dropping 55% yearly to $1.13 billion or 34 cents a share, below consensus estimates of 51 cents a share.
The year-over-year decline in earnings came as Tesla reiterated that it is under pressure as many carmakers prioritize hybrids over EVs. To stem a further drop in revenues and profits, the company is increasing awareness and expanding vehicle financing programs, offering attractive leasing terms for customers.
Tesla sold over 1.8 million electric vehicles in 2023, more than 80 times the 22,400 cars it shipped in 2013. The monster growth in deliveries supported tremendous revenue gains, allowing the company to generate significant profit and value for shareholders. Likewise, the massive deliveries underlined how the automaker is the go-to company for electric vehicles as it continues to refine its autonomous driving technology with AI.

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Author

Tesla Slashes Prices and Capitalizes on Lower Input Costs to Supercharge EV Market Dominance​

Amid the recent setbacks in manufacturing and deliveries, the electric vehicle giant remains focused on dominating the automotive industry. While it produced 1.8 million cars last year, this is only a tiny fraction of the industry's total. For instance, over 90 million cars were produced annually across the auto industry last year.
Similarly, the transition towards electric vehicles as one of the ways of combating carbon emissions and climate change presents tremendous opportunity given the head start that Tesla already enjoys. While delivery numbers fell in the first quarter for the first time in nearly three years, Tesla is not resting as it looks to sell over 20 million electric cars by 2030. The automaker is resorting to price cuts as one of the ways of making its car affordable to try and push out more sales.
Additionally, Tesla has already announced plans to speed up the introduction of new models, including more budget-friendly options that will be manufactured on the same production lines as existing models. It intends to optimize its existing production capabilities before constructing new production facilities.
Making vehicles more affordable would motivate new buyers, particularly those put off by the premium price. Ultimately, the automaker should benefit from economies of scale, which would help it reduce the cost of making each car, thereby enabling it to decrease its prices further.
While there have been growing concerns that price cuts' are taking a significant toll on profits and margins, there is an upside. The cost of goods sold is declining, driven mainly by lower raw material costs, consequently justifying the price cuts. For instance, lithium prices declined throughout 2023 and remained subdued for the rest of the year's first half. Battery metals, also a key ingredient in Tesla vehicles, have declined significantly across global markets, with Goldman Sachs reiterating that the cost will decline by up to 40% by 2025.

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Goldman Sachs

Additionally, it has embarked on a cost-efficiency program that includes laying off at least 10% of its staff. Reducing operating expenditure is expected to result in lower goods sold per vehicle costs, allowing the automaker to sustain price cuts for EVs to drive more sales.
While price cuts are crucial in driving more sales, the company is also doing more on the production front as it looks to offer more options in electric vehicles that people can buy. In addition, it is ramping up production of batteries in-house, which should improve the overall profitability by making the cars less expensive and affordable for the mass market.

Tesla's Billion-Dollar Bet: AI-Powered Self-Driving Tech and Ride-Sharing Revolution​

Even as Tesla boosts production and offers discounts on juice sales, it pours much into its self-driving technology, which will define its prospects for the long term. It has already spent $1 billion in CapEx on AI infrastructure as it continues to polish its software and hardware to create self-driving cars and ride-sharing services.
With a clear plan and a complete AI network trained on trillions of miles of actual driving data, the company can grow and make money in self-driving technology. Tesla's offering of Full Self-Driving (FSD) subscriptions to its clients is expected to create a steady income stream with a high profit margin. In April, the automaker reduced the cost of its FSD subscription in the U.S. from $199 to $99 monthly. For those who purchased the Advanced Autopilot package for $6,000, Tesla provided a more affordable FSD subscription at $99 rather than the original $199.
Additionally, Elon Musk has proposed allowing other car companies to use FSD, opening up a new source of income. Software development is a one-time investment whose products can be sold many times over; thus, it's an ultra-profitable venture. Musk also sees a Tesla ride-sharing project. He has observed that most privately owned cars are usually used only for 12 hours a week; they are stationed in front of the owner's home or office for most of their lives. FSD will allow the owner to rent their car to Tesla's ride-sharing service, making some extra money while it's not in use. Tesla will receive a portion of this income to oversee the service.
Tesla continues to innovate, with FSD Beta version 11, featuring a unified tech stack for city and highway Autopilot use, which is expected to be released widely soon. This phased rollout, starting with employees and expanding to more owners, ensures continuous improvement and refinement.

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notateslaapp.com

Tesla Faces Challenges Amid Delivery Slowdown and Price Cuts, Yet AI Investments Fuel Long-Term Optimism​

A slowdown in vehicle deliveries and revenue growth rate in the first quarter is an emerging concern that continues to rattle Tesla stock sentiments in the market. The fact that Tesla slashed prices by up to 25% last year to support demand could be an early indicator of softening demand across the EV industry.
Elon Musk has already warned that sales could be lower in 2024 owing to the high interest rate environment. Likewise, Ford Motor (F) and General Motors (GM) have already slashed their investments in electrification plans, indicating things are not good in the industry.
Growing competition is another significant risk that Tesla investors must contend with. China-based automakers developing affordable electric vehicles should continue putting pressure on Tesla, forcing it to issue more price cuts to attract sales. However, price cuts are not a sustainable long-term plan for Tesla to remain profitable.

Cathie Wood Predicts Tesla's AI-Driven Surge to $2,600 by 2029 with Robotaxi Revolution​

Ark Investment CEO Cathie Wood has already reiterated that Tesla remains the most significant AI opportunity in the auto industry, given its investments. The company is racing to develop the industry's most advanced autonomous driving software, which sets it apart from the pack.
According to Cathie Wood, Tesla shares will hit record highs of $2,600 by 2029, representing a 1350% gain from current levels and achieving an enterprise value of $8.2 trillion. The rally will come on the automaker achieving profits of $300 billion, representing annual gains of 90% through 2029, and on revenues of more than $1.2 trillion, representing a yearly gain of 65%.
The ambitious estimates are based on growing expectations that Tesla will launch a robo-taxi business that will be significant and help drive revenue growth. Wood expects Tesla to succeed in competing against Uber in the ride-sharing business. Lastly, automakers are expected to raise production by 45% every year.

Bottom Line​

If the 28% plus slide is anything to go by, Tesla has undoubtedly underperformed for the better part of the year. The company has paid a hefty price for decelerating in-car deliveries, compounded by revenues and missed earnings in the first quarter. Amid the disappointment, the company has continued to fire on the execution front as it positions itself as a low-cost car producer.
Investments in AI are poised to enhance the company's self-driving technology, making its cars desirable and competitive in the market. As the company explores ways of trimming manufacturing costs, reducing prices, and selling more cars, its profit margins should improve. The recent pullback presents an ideal entry point for anyone looking to bet on Tesla's solid growth and long-term prospects.
 
You can always a bull and a bear for any company.

Here is the bearish case from a shortseller. If you are a shorter you see shorts everywhere. This guy has been shorting Tesla a long time so probably is under.

I do feel there are strong headwinds coming for the next year. You can see by what you posted profit is reducing. This has to effect the valuations. Shortseller is a bit extreme though.

 
You can always a bull and a bear for any company.

Here is the bearish case from a shortseller. If you are a shorter you see shorts everywhere. This guy has been shorting Tesla a long time so probably is under.

I do feel there are strong headwinds coming for the next year. You can see by what you posted profit is reducing. This has to effect the valuations. Shortseller is a bit extreme though.

Extreme nutjobs on both sides , that said i think TSLA is a short the pop proposition for the forseable future , dont get me wrong i will be a buyer at the right level . I bought TSLA xmas 2022 , did well as based on earn multiple it was cheap as it had ever been on that metric


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Fan boys are buying with every dollar. Short sellers are of the Elon derangement syndrome type. Elon became a polarising figure there's a lot of figures of a particular type all chomping at the bit to take over Tesla as CEO.

Definitely a downturn, but also an election year. It's rare for a market correction in a change over.
 
There are a huge amount of companies that go broke and their shareholders lose everything, but their executives between them take huge renumerations without adding anything to the companies.
Add up how many companies go broke while capital raising as they go around the S bend and the execs all get paid.
At least Musk is making something sellable. Lol
Is Tesla market value worth more than what they are giving Musk?
Is any other company more interwound more with its founder than Tesla, maybe Jobst would follow suit, if he were still around.
Same with Bill Gates, if he was up to his eyeballs in Microsoft, big profile, means big bucks.
Musk
Bezos
Zuckerburg

All similar net worth, why?

It's equity. It's not the same as some schmoozing executives taking a cut of profits then running to another to do the same. They're heavily incentivized to keep their shares (thus keeping share value high) and increasing the value of the company over the long term. They could give Elon 1 Trillion dollars worth of shares. It makes no difference. He needs to grow the company into the value to keep the value of his holdings.

Also Elon made Tesla what it is today. He's one of them innovators / engineers. Not pencil pushing managers. Think when Steve Jobs was ousted from Apple. Or when Ballmer took over Microsoft how bad it was.

Having strong committed innovative leadership is probably one of the biggest factors in a company's growth. Once you get one of those "career CEOs" running the company, it's doomed.
 
Some good debating and explanation, just fast forward the babble and listen to the experts.

 
I'm actually turning pretty bullish on Tesla. I started watching some Tesla videos the other day and got pulled back in.

I'm also thinking the next big thing is robotics and all associated industries with that. People are lazy these days. The possibilities are enormous regarding robots with AI.

I suppose the 'AI of everything' is the current evolution after the initial build out of data centres and models.

Trying to think of all the applications is mind boggling. This is literally the cusp of another revolution. If you missed the internet revolution this is your second chance to score big. Security systems with AI would be a game changer. AI diagnostic equipment. There is so much possibility. I better stop messing round and position better.
 
I'm actually turning pretty bullish on Tesla. I started watching some Tesla videos the other day and got pulled back in.

I'm also thinking the next big thing is robotics and all associated industries with that. People are lazy these days. The possibilities are enormous regarding robots with AI.

I suppose the 'AI of everything' is the current evolution after the initial build out of data centres and models.

Trying to think of all the applications is mind boggling. This is literally the cusp of another revolution. If you missed the internet revolution this is your second chance to score big. Security systems with AI would be a game changer. AI diagnostic equipment. There is so much possibility. I better stop messing round and position better.

It is starting to look better, more positive news coming out lately. I'm tempted to cash in some of my profits but then I think about what will happen if Tesla get the autonomous taxi system working.
 
It is starting to look better, more positive news coming out lately. I'm tempted to cash in some of my profits but then I think about what will happen if Tesla get the autonomous taxi system working.
It's a bit of a long hauler if you look at it.
Robo taxis is the next big thing.

US is going to lay tariffs (Trump has bigger incentives) on byd and Tesla is basically the only US provider.

Tesla optimus robot will hopefully be mass produced in their already setup manufacturing ecosystem. First mover advantage is massive. This is Tesla's huge benefit imo- manufacturing base is already setup.

Only the Chinese have the capacity to manufacture at that scale and no one wants a spybot.

You also have software and ai licencing.

The big downside is Elons political stance. Democrats make up a group that all thinks together (A bit like I said in GME thread about a rabid base). Temperamental lot that are anti Tesla for insane reasons.
 
I cannot state how massive the next 10 years will be. AI will change how we do everything. We will also not have dominance on being the most intelligent species.

Human history is over.
It's now replaced/shared with the birth of AI.

This is a massive deal. No one knows how it's going to play out.
 
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