TSLA - Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ)

[Value Collector]

I haven't kept up with it but one of the big issues around this stuff is speed of the cameras and processing then the action I assume this has reached a level faster or equal to humans.

It’s also that humans can only really see and react to things in one direction at a time.

Eg to check the blind spot before changing lanes you have to take your eyes off what is happening in front and turn your head to look at your mirror and then over your shoulder.

However the cameras can see a 360 degree view at all times, so not only may the car react faster, but it is going to see things happening before a human could.

 

[JohnDe]

First electric truck to do lap around Australia completes journey after heatwaves and headwinds​

Jon Edwards and his Hyundai Mighty 7.3 tonne electric truck arrived back in Perth late last Wednesday to complete the first lap of Australia in an electric truck. Jon and his wonderful support team were welcomed at the Midland premises of CD Dodd, scrap metal recyclers and a major sponsor of the trip.

Rather than being a race, the 13,600 km 26 day journey was planned to show the capability of electric trucks, and included detours to Canberra and Whyalla.

Unseasonal conditions on the journey included a heatwave across the north and strong headwinds on some of the longer legs between chargers. Each leg was carefully planned based on the known available charge in both the truck battery and the extra battery carried on the tray, which together totalled 180 kWh.
Air temperature and wind speed and direction came from Google, and were the factors that influenced consumption the most, after speed. Jon found that elevation had less effect than expected, even with a 2.5 tonne load.

The truck was driven to match the required consumption for each leg, with a small buffer. Average consumption for the journey was 45 kWh/100 km but varied between 38 kWh and 58 kWh/100 km. In energy terms, that average is the equivalent of 4.5 litres/100km of diesel, pretty amazing for a heavy vehicle.

Average speed for the journey was 80 kph, partly because of the very poor condition of many roads, particularly across the Northern Territory and Queensland where sections made even 60kph uncomfortable.

Jon estimated that, based on Ampcharge prices, the trip would have cost $3200 in electricity, compared with $7400 for diesel.
The truck handled the trip well despite extreme temperatures, maintaining an unchanged 98% state of battery health despite having no battery thermal control. The main issue was that neither battery nor motor temperatures are permanently displayed and are difficult to access in the menu when driving.

This could have avoided some battery thermal overload while charging in extreme heat, and a motor overheat in mild conditions on a long hill coming into Sydney, causing an unexpected and immediate loss of speed on a motorway.

Unfortunately, Hyundai showed little interest in the trip, even when Jon offered to data log the journey for them to use and to visit Hyundai centres in all capital cities. Technical questions to Hyundai went unanswered, so many problems had to be worked out on the road.
Jon found the journey easier than he expected, partly because of the help from co-drivers and supporters, and partly because the charging network is “not bad”, with some exceptions.

Planning is still required, and checking Plugshare (sometimes hourly) was absolutely essential to confirm availability and functioning of chargers. Jon encountered only two on-grid DC chargers which unexpectedly could not be started even with network support, both in Victoria on the Evie network.

The Mighty’s 800V architecture meant that it could not charge from the older Tritium RT 50 charger network across north Queensland, nor from any Tesla Superchargers (450V), but was fine with newer Kempower chargers. This had been anticipated, but is an issue that will need attention as more EVs move to 800V allowing faster charging speeds.

Off- grid DC charging is challenging, but Jon joined the list of disappointed drivers let down by the prolonged intermittent malfunctioning of the NRMA charger at Nullarbor roadhouse, part of a Federally funded, national charger scheme. NRMA are aware of the problem, but a more reliable system is required for any further off- grid sites around the country.

The WA TOCEVA crowd-funded 22kW Delta charger remains the only reliable charger at this site.

Jon took time to service the Biofil 50 kW DC charger he installed at Caiguna, where the problems are more positive. The 60 litres per week of used cooking oil is no longer enough to charge the number of EVs on the route, so the planned WA EV network chargers cannot come soon enough.

Jon worried that a slow moving truck would cause irritation to road train drivers, but CB radio conversations were uniformly positive, with lots of curiosity. Jon took trouble to allow easy passing and to keep out of the way.

However, right near the finishing line it nearly came unstuck. The last DC charger before Perth at Merredin was out with a major town power outage. The tray battery hadn’t been needed since the Nullarbor but had been fully charged the night before – the ABC (Always Be Charging) rule, just in case. Enough electrons could be transferred to complete the journey.
Jon and the team of planners, co-drivers and supporters have pulled off a considerable feat which could have failed at multiple points.

Unfortunately Jon drove into his welcome at CD Dodd’s and immediately spotted their magnificent new beetle green Volvo fully electric FM prime mover, capable of carrying up to 50 tonnes. He was heard to mutter “no more Tonka toy truck adventures” so watch this space.

 

[mullokintyre]

Tesla SP jumped overnight when its Q3 profitablity jumped, beating most estimates.
And to top it off, tesla says its Cybertruck has finally hit profitability, something that many of its rivals are unlikely to achieve for years.
Could it mean that the price war in EV's has stabilised, and they are going to become more profitable??
Mick
From Zero Hedge

 

[JohnDe]

Tesla SP jumped overnight when its Q3 profitablity jumped, beating most estimates.
And to top it off, tesla says its Cybertruck has finally hit profitability, something that many of its rivals are unlikely to achieve for years.
Could it mean that the price war in EV's has stabilised, and they are going to become more profitable??
Mick
From Zero Hedge
View attachment 186462

View attachment 186463

Wait until the new President of the USA is in, that is going to be interesting for Tesla SP.

Tesla rallies most in over a decade on Musk's bold EV forecast

• Tesla adds about $150 bln in market value after share jump
• Musk forecast 20%-30% sales growth in 2025
• Stock jump seen as relief rally, some short covering - investor
• 7 brokerages raised price targets with median of $221 - LSEG

SAN FRANCISCO, Oct 24 (Reuters) - Tesla (TSLA.O), opens new tab shares closed up nearly 22% on Thursday - their biggest single-day gain in over a decade - as CEO Elon Musk's bold forecast of surging sales reassured investors he was still looking to grow its core business of selling electric cars.
Musk forecast 20%-30% sales growth next year, promising to launch an affordable vehicle in the first half of 2025, and said efforts to slash production costs boosted margins in the third quarter.

The stock rose to a session high of $262.2 with volumes of roughly 200 million shares. It was the biggest gain since May 2013, and erased recent losses on concerns that Musk was distracted by new projects like the recently unveiled robotaxi.
At close, nearly $150 billion was added to the company's market value.

"With the stock selling off in October before its earnings announcement, some bears feel this is more of a relief rally, as results were better than feared," said Ed Egilinsky, managing director at investment company Direxion.

The sharp rally might also be attributed to some short covering, he said. Short interest on Tesla stock was 2.33% at the end of September, according to LSEG data.
Musk has been pivoting Tesla into an artificial intelligence and robotics company from an EV market leader, but has yet failed to lay out a detailed business plan for his new focus. Investors sold off Tesla shares earlier this month after a robotaxi event was short on details.

Last quarter, Musk made bold company announcements about everything but cars - from driverless taxis to humanoid robots - leaving investors worried about dwindling margins already squeezed by lowered prices.

Tesla's cost of revenue for every vehicle sold sinks

FSD FUTURE​

"He definitely seemed more passionate and invested in it this time," said Jessica Caldwell, head of insights at car research and buying website Edmunds.

"I feel like so much of Tesla is tied up in the future but we need to figure out how you get there. That's what people needed to hear and they were a little bit better in providing those details than they have been in the past."

Tesla reported third-quarter margin that handily beat Wall Street expectations and said that the labor and material costs of making vehicles - known as the cost of goods sold per vehicle - dropped to its lowest-ever level, about $35,100.
It recorded $326 million in revenue for its autopilot software called Full Self Driving used in Cybertruck and other autonomous features.
"FSD played a part in the margin expansion, but I think the larger driver was reduced unit production costs... Over time, FSD should drive higher long-term margin expansion," said Seth Goldstein, equity strategist at Morningstar.

FSD is the bedrock for Tesla's robotaxis.
Musk said he expects Tesla vehicles to offer paid, driverless, ride-hailing services next year, doubling down on his promise made at the robotaxi event. But that plan is likely to face significant regulatory challenges.

HIGH P/E​

Not all investors are likely to be mollified by Tesla's reassurances on Wednesday.
Ross Gerber, CEO of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and Investment Management and a prominent Tesla investor, said robotaxis and AI were not the fundamental businesses he wanted Musk to focus on.
"The days were good when Elon slept at the factory. He was there every day, working. Not going on Trump rallies of all things he could be doing," Gerber said, referring to Musk's well-publicized support of the Republican presidential candidate.
Tesla shares are trading at 72.75 times its 12-month forward earnings estimates, compared with the 5.94 times for legacy automaker Ford Motor (F.N), opens new tab and 30.79 for technology giant Microsoft (MSFT.O), opens new tab.
At least seven brokerages raised their price targets on the stock, with a median PT of $221, according to LSEG data.

Tesla's valuation trumps tech giants, automakers

 

[JohnDe]

Looks like a race between the US and China to get driverless cars to market.

Wuhan goes viral again as the ‘robotaxi capital of the world’

The Chinese city of Wuhan is again commanding international attention – this time as the unlikely rival to San Francisco in the race to become the “robotaxi capital of the world”.

Tesla billionaire Elon Musk took to a Hollywood movie set this month to spruik his vision of a world of driverless cars. In Wuhan that future arrived in 2022.

Chinese tech giant Baidu now has more than 400 fully self-driving Apollo Go cars taking passengers – including, on a recent trip to Wuhan, The Australian – around a city with a population of almost 11 million, the size of Sydney and Melbourne combined.

Right now, they are allowed to drive on almost half of the enormous city’s roads.

Baidu plans to ramp up its self-driving fleet in Wuhan to 1000 by the end of the year – which makes it by far the biggest in the world. It would have done so earlier this year if Wuhan’s taxi drivers hadn’t freaked out the city government with a protest.

“Wuhan is famous for its uprisings. The government is worried the taxi drivers will rise up,” a source familiar with the Wuhan government’s thinking told The Australian.

Many close observers think with a bit of compensation – and the threat of a stick or two if those carrots don’t work – Wuhan’s ambitious government will soon get the robotaxi rollout back on its world-leading course.

It’s one of the key planks in the central Chinese city’s plan to become a “world-class hub for technological innovation”, part of a national tech uplift being championed by President Xi Jinping.

Seemingly every month another Chinese city announces plans to add a robotaxi fleet. Baidu alone is already operating in more than 10 cities in China. Chinese self-driving rivals Pony.ai and WeRide are also expanding.

On an earnings call in late August, Baidu’s billionaire CEO Robin Li tried to temper fears about the pace of the rollout, which has raised concerns about a mass lay-off of taxi drivers in a slowing economy that is struggling to create new jobs.

Baidu’s Apollo Go fleet is now taking about 290,000 rides a month, but that still accounts for just 1 per cent of the ride-hailing market in Wuhan. “It will take many years for us to reach a meaningful market share in China or elsewhere,” Li said.

But the rise of the robots is on the minds of many in China. A real estate agent from Xi’an said he had always thought, if business selling property got any worse, he could switch to driving a Didi or one of China’s other Uber-like ride hailing businesses to pay the bills. “Now what can I do?” he said.

Many others welcome the change. China’s taxi drivers don’t have the best reputations. The trip from Wuhan’s main railway station to my hotel in an old-school taxi was by far the scariest trip I took in the city. With frightening detachment, the driver watched videos on his smartphone as he hooned across the sprawling metropolis. By contrast, my two trips in Baidu’s fifth generation Apollo Go robotaxis were master classes of diligent driving.

One trip was through early evening rush hour traffic, giving the Apollo Go white sedan plenty of opportunity to get into trouble and cause chaos. A hard U-turn under a busy overpass was a formative experience early in the trip, but the car’s sensors judged everything perfectly.

Later on, a van suddenly cut across our path. Robo slammed the brakes with the reflexes of a Formula 1 champion before a chorus of honking from surrounding traffic shamed the human driver.

After more than a decade of development and testing, Baidu, Pony.ai and WeRide say their robotaxis are around 10 times less likely to get into an accident than a human driver. They are also significantly cheaper, as they try to lure in customers into their sensor-and-camera-laden sedans.

Wuhan is full of converts. Many wish the rollout would happen faster.

One person who works for the city’s government said his elderly mother had started using a robotaxi for her weekly grocery shop. He used to have to take her to the store in his car – neither of them trusted the city’s taxi drivers with the trip.

When it is possible, he wants to buy a self-driving car for his mother, which he says will be able to earn some side income by working as a robotaxi for the majority of the week when his mother won’t be using it.

“With a robotaxi, I will be free and she will be free,” he said, smiling at the vision of this fast-approaching future.

These are some of the benefits – the increased safety, the more efficient use of vehicles, the related drop in urban space used by carparks – that Musk sketched in his recent product launch.

For now, Tesla doesn’t have any “Cybercabs” operating. Musk says the company will start taking customers in 2025, if approvals come through.

For now the only serious rival to the Baidu fleet in Wuhan is run by the Google spin-off Waymo, which has a similar-sized 400-odd fleet in San Francisco.

The driver’s seat of a Baidu Apollo Go robotaxi, as it negotiated Wuhan’s early evening rush hour. Picture: Will Glasgow

Billions of dollars have been spent on developing the technology and now Waymo’s co-chief executive, Tekedra Mawakana, is sounding bullish. “We’ve been at this for a long time – 15 years in the rearview mirror – and we’ve hit this point of acceleration,” she recently told The Wall Street Journal.

This month, Uber chief executive Dara Khosrowshahi said he expected that within a decade half of the rides booked on his platform would be for self-driving cars. Uber has partnered with Waymo and WeRide.

There are no driverless cars that Australians can flag right now. Evidently, that’s going to change in the near future.

In Canberra, Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development and Local Government minister Catherine King’s department is working on an “Automated Vehicle Safety Law”, in partnership with state and territory governments, ahead of the arrival of robotaxis, robotrucks and more on Australian roads.

“The Australian government recognises automated vehicles have many potential benefits, including improved road safety, mobility and accessibility. However, they could also bring new safety and security risks, which is why governments are working together on new laws to regulate these vehicles,” an Australian government spokeswoman said.

As well as revolutionising how people will travel, it looks set to be another front in the battle between China and America for the technological heights of the new economy.

The Albanese government has said that it has no intention of following America’s lead in banning Chinese EV software or mimicking the EU’s new Chinese EV tariffs. But self-driving cars instructed by Beijing will raise blood pressure among Australia’s national security community.

Whether made in China or America, many Australians will take some convincing that all of this is a good idea.

While most of the millions of rides by self-driving cars have gone smoothly, there have been some shockers. General Motors’ self-driving operation Cruise had its licence to operate in California suspended after one of its vehicles dragged a pedestrian pushed into its path by a human hit-and-run driver.

In Wuhan, many call the Baidu fleet “dumb robots” after a series of mishaps that have gone viral on the Chinese internet.

A taxi driver in the city relished retelling them as he drove me to a part of Wuhan where I could hail one of his driverless competitors.

There was, he recalled, the driverless car that caused a traffic jam after stopping in front of an empty plastic bag. And the time two driverless vehicles approached each other and stopped – neither apparently having the wit to go around the other.

And, most damaging for Baidu, the video of one of its white Apollo Go driverless cars hitting a scooter. The company has since explained that the accident was caused by the scooter driver running a red light.

“I wouldn’t dare give my life to a robot,” the taxi driver told The Australian.

That said, he was frank that his profession is on the endangered species list. By 2030, he thinks his human driving skills will be redundant in China. “By then, I will have to retire,” he said, matter of factly.

Tesla Is Poised To Launch A Multi-Trillion Dollar Robotaxi Opportunity In 2025​ ​

By Autonomous Technology & Robotics Team | @ARKInvest Tasha Keeney, CFA, Sam Korus, & Daniel Maguire, ACA​

Last week, Tesla delighted investors with its third-quarter earnings. The company reported better-than-expected profits, thanks to record-low vehicle costs, increased revenue from its high-margin Full Self-Driving (FSD) software, and surprisingly strong growth in revenue from energy storage and services. Tesla also reaffirmed its plans to launch a low-cost vehicle in the first half of next year that will support its 20-30% growth target for unit volume growth of its vehicles. Most important to ARK, Elon Musk confirmed that next year Tesla will launch a ride-hail service—in our view, unlocking a multi-trillion-dollar robotaxi opportunity—in Texas and California. We also learned that Tesla employees have been testing the service for quite some time in California.1 During its earnings call, Tesla shared ride-hailing insights that many expected to hear at the Cybercab event on October 10. Clearly, Musk made a strategic decision to defer some details important to investors until the earnings release. During the investor call, management noted that some states will require a safety driver until Tesla reaches specific time and mileage thresholds.2 Given its large fleet, Tesla should be able to meet those thresholds handily. Even if regulators were to delay the removal of safety drivers, ARK has outlined the strategic and tactical advantages of launching a human-driven ride-hail service first.3 In our view, Tesla should enjoy a price umbrella at its robotaxi launch, thanks to the high level of current ride-hail prices, as shown below, while leveraging a lower cost per mile than the average vehicle on the road. Why? The operating costs associated with electric vehicles are roughly one-third those of their gas-powered counterparts.4 Without safety drivers, Tesla has suggested that, at scale, its robotaxi rides will cost consumers only $0.30-0.40 cents per mile,5 slightly higher than ARK’s estimate of ~$0.25 per mile but well below current ride-hail costs of ~$2 per mile and personal car ownership costs of ~$0.70 per mile.6 Lower price points could unlock ~$11 trillion in revenue potential, ~80 times larger than the addressable market that Uber and Lyft target today, as shown below. *$11 Trillion is the addressable market, not the revenue we expect in 2030, as we do not expect autonomy to penetrate all addressable miles. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2024. This ARK analysis is based on a range of underlying data from external sources, which may be provided upon request. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.​

 

[Knobby22]

Looks like a race between the US and China to get driverless cars to market.

​

​ Tesla Is Poised To Launch A Multi-Trillion Dollar Robotaxi Opportunity In 2025​

By Autonomous Technology & Robotics Team | @ARKInvest Tasha Keeney, CFA, Sam Korus, & Daniel Maguire, ACA​

Last week, Tesla delighted investors with its third-quarter earnings. The company reported better-than-expected profits, thanks to record-low vehicle costs, increased revenue from its high-margin Full Self-Driving (FSD) software, and surprisingly strong growth in revenue from energy storage and services. Tesla also reaffirmed its plans to launch a low-cost vehicle in the first half of next year that will support its 20-30% growth target for unit volume growth of its vehicles. Most important to ARK, Elon Musk confirmed that next year Tesla will launch a ride-hail service—in our view, unlocking a multi-trillion-dollar robotaxi opportunity—in Texas and California. We also learned that Tesla employees have been testing the service for quite some time in California.1 During its earnings call, Tesla shared ride-hailing insights that many expected to hear at the Cybercab event on October 10. Clearly, Musk made a strategic decision to defer some details important to investors until the earnings release. During the investor call, management noted that some states will require a safety driver until Tesla reaches specific time and mileage thresholds.2 Given its large fleet, Tesla should be able to meet those thresholds handily. Even if regulators were to delay the removal of safety drivers, ARK has outlined the strategic and tactical advantages of launching a human-driven ride-hail service first.3 In our view, Tesla should enjoy a price umbrella at its robotaxi launch, thanks to the high level of current ride-hail prices, as shown below, while leveraging a lower cost per mile than the average vehicle on the road. Why? The operating costs associated with electric vehicles are roughly one-third those of their gas-powered counterparts.4 Without safety drivers, Tesla has suggested that, at scale, its robotaxi rides will cost consumers only $0.30-0.40 cents per mile,5 slightly higher than ARK’s estimate of ~$0.25 per mile but well below current ride-hail costs of ~$2 per mile and personal car ownership costs of ~$0.70 per mile.6 Lower price points could unlock ~$11 trillion in revenue potential, ~80 times larger than the addressable market that Uber and Lyft target today, as shown below. View attachment 186815 *$11 Trillion is the addressable market, not the revenue we expect in 2030, as we do not expect autonomy to penetrate all addressable miles. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2024. This ARK analysis is based on a range of underlying data from external sources, which may be provided upon request. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.​

What about Google?
Their system is already operating in San Francisco and Phoenix!

Waymo - Self-Driving Cars - Autonomous Vehicles - Ride-Hail

Waymo—formerly the Google self-driving car project—makes it safe and easy for people & things to get around with autonomous vehicles. Take a ride now.

waymo.com

 

[JohnDe]

What about Google?
Their system is already operating in San Francisco and Phoenix!

Waymo - Self-Driving Cars - Autonomous Vehicles - Ride-Hail

Waymo—formerly the Google self-driving car project—makes it safe and easy for people & things to get around with autonomous vehicles. Take a ride now.

waymo.com

They use pre-determined maps and are limited to those areas.

 

[Knobby22]

They use pre-determined maps and are limited to those areas.

Which is why it works, we all know about Google Maps. 2 cities so far, Los Angeles and Austin soon.

Found the following:

The primary technical difference is that Waymo/Cruise use multiple sensor modalities: Lidar / radar / camera, while Tesla is camera only.

In a vision-only system it is much harder to (1) infer distance / depth of perception tracks, (2) have redundancy in the system, (3) validate using sim or otherwise that your system would do the right thing across a broad range of scenarios, simulating what cameras would see is more difficult.

 

[JohnDe]

which is why it works, we all know about Google Maps.
Also:

The primary technical difference is that Waymo/Cruise use multiple sensor modalities: Lidar / radar / camera, while Tesla is camera only.

In a vision-only system it is much harder to (1) infer distance / depth of perception tracks, (2) have redundancy in the system, (3) validate using sim or otherwise that your system would do the right thing across a broad range of scenarios, simulating what cameras would see is more difficult.

Each system has its merits.

I just find that Google maps has too many fails, many times it has taken us on a wild goose chase.

 

[JohnDe]

Who sold their Tesla shares before the election?

I thought about it, and I would be lying if I didn’t say that I was worried but held on.