WDS - Woodside Energy Group

[Dona Ferentes]

Onward and upwards for WDS.

Sales slid to $US4.33 billion in the March quarter but were more than double a year earlier thanks to the merger with BHP Petroleum.

 

[UMike]

FYG remains unchanged.

 

[finicky]

Monthly chart seems to be peaking at the level of the prior peak? Curving over and throwing candles with upper wicks. Weekly has negative divergence of momentum.
Oil and gas strikes me is a place to be, WDS a proven producer with good sovereign locations but maybe it has to correct the run from $15 to $39 in 3 years?
G Canavan has a current buy on it along with other producers but he is holding from his earlier recco for Woodside at $29.
I guess all this is questionable after the annexing of BHP Petroleum.
Anyway I think I'll wait to see if I can pick up a few @ $30 myself.

Held

MONTHLY 10 YEAR

WEEKLY 5 YEAR

 

[InsvestoBoy]

Monthly chart seems to be peaking at the level of the prior peak? Curving over and throwing candles with upper wicks. Weekly has negative divergence of momentum.
Oil and gas strikes me is a place to be, WDS a proven producer with good sovereign locations but maybe it has to correct the run from $15 to $39 in 3 years?
G Canavan has a current buy on it along with other producers but he is holding from his earlier recco for Woodside at $29.
I guess all this is questionable after the annexing of BHP Petroleum.
Anyway I think I'll wait to see if I can pick up a few @ $30 myself.

Held

MONTHLY 10 YEAR
View attachment 156051

WEEKLY 5 YEAR

Seems like earlier you were thinking of value estimate around $48, with an interest in buying at $30, I am always curious why people who come up with price targets like this don't trade options on the numbers? For example, if one is interested in buying at $30 why not sell $30 puts?

 

[Rabbithop]

Seems like earlier you were thinking of value estimate around $48, with an interest in buying at $30, I am always curious why people who come up with price targets like this don't trade options on the numbers? For example, if one is interested in buying at $30 why not sell $30 puts?

Maybe don't know how or risky.

 

[finicky]

why not sell $30 puts?

Look, it's pretty clear I am a simpleton but I resent you drawing it out. I have never used a derivative thingo in my life, so stop poking fun at me

 

[divs4ever]

I have never used a derivative thingo in my life, so stop poking fun at me

you make that sound like a bad thing , some might disagree

 

[sptrawler]

Look, it's pretty clear I am a simpleton but I resent you drawing it out. I have never used a derivative thingo in my life, so stop poking fun at me

I know what you mean, a $30 put to me, sounds like a bet on golf.

 

[UMike]

Anyway I think I'll wait to see if I can pick up a few @ $30 myself.

Pretty clear "see if I can pick up a few @ $30"
Doesn't mean we expect it to hit $30.

But if you think long term it'll reach $48. It'd make sense to pick some up @ $30 if the prices dips on short term sentiment.

 

[finicky]

Something else that sows doubt - I am also concerned that one of the mass components of their off shore growth platform is being built in China - I think it was the Scarborough Pluto Train 2 - with lots of money already spent. Can't find that article.

Woodside chair warns Australian investments at risk​

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Something else that sows doubt - I am also concerned that one of the mass components of their off shore growth platform is being built in China - I think it was the Scarborough Pluto Train 2 - with lots of money already spent. Can't find that article.

Nothing new there, sadly. I was working for a geophysics company in the early 80's . We had guys on North Rankin A production platform for months. The entire structure had been barged in from S Korea and put on site. It was underengineered and every leg had to be strengthened, including deeper footings to then brace the legs.

 

[sptrawler]

Looks like Shell has pulled up stumps on the Browse gas project.

Shell sells stake in $30b Woodside gas project to BP

Shell has walked away from the $30 billion Browse gas project led by Woodside Energy, saying it is “no longer a strategic fit”.

www.afr.com

BP will acquire fellow global energy major Shell’s stake in the $30 billion Browse LNG project in Western Australia hot on the heels of Woodside Energy boss Meg O’Neill issuing a warning about the mounting regulatory hurdles and policy changes facing the project’s backers.

The deal boosts BP stake in the Browse project, led by Woodside, to 44 per cent. PetroChina and Japanese heavyweights Mitsubishi and Mitsui also have stakes in what is touted as Australia’s largest untapped conventional gas resource.

It is understood BP finalised the acquisition of the Shell stake on Friday night Perth time just hours after protesters and climate change activists targeted the Woodside annual general meeting in the city.

Shell said it had agreed to sell its 27 per cent stake in Browse for an undisclosed price because the asset was “no longer a strategic fit” in the company’s global portfolio.

 

[DrBourse]

WDS approaching $29.23.
View attachment 154462

WDS heading down to where it belongs IMO - $29.23 - sorry bout that prognosis gang....

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

WDS is too big to be taken over and less affected by Government, unlike STO.

A wander down to the high $20's is not inconceivable.

In this climate it could zoom up to $40 if a black swan floats past covered in oil.

The supply chain and infrastructure for ICE and Oil/Gas industry are still more robust than for EV and Electric/Hydrogen.

As I think @UMike said, buy low and wait for a high.

gg

 

[finicky]

$29.23

Wow, prediction to the last 3c - class
Similar looking move from BPT today. Hoping to pick up a few of those as well. G Canavan (Fat Tails Investment Advisory) has a buy on both.

Held

 

[DrBourse]

Wow, prediction to the last 3c - class
Similar looking move from BPT today. Hoping to pick up a few of those as well. G Canavan (Fat Tails Investment Advisory) has a buy on both.

Held

Made that call back on 16/3/23 - Could be a coupla cents either way now - but it looks like that general area is where WDS is heading

 

[sptrawler]

Fair point and I am looking at adding VAS, into the core holding of ETF's and LIC's, I don't see any hurry to add VAS atm..
This is more a buy to sell one, as I don't see the next 10 years being reflective of the last 10 and is also why I earlier mentioned AGL which I've also never owned before.
Everyone to their own. ?

That was December 2021:
Well offloaded WDS today, nice profit, hopefully can get back in if there is a correction. Just trying to build up a war chest.

 

[houtman]

Today's announcement regarding GoM looks positive.

2/3 of production in the first 10 years.
70% of costs are fixed.
First oil 2028.

I wonder how much the current political situation in Australia impacted giving this the green light?
A subtle message to Government that they are just as happy to invest overseas perhaps.

 

[DrBourse]

Hi houtman - Agree with you on WDS.....

Ran my ruler over WDS on 19/5/23 - IV then was $37.65 to $41.62.....
The WDS SP has bounced off the $33.43 line quite a few times so far this year, if it can close above the $37.62 Line it should do well....
Cheers....
DrB.

 

[DrBourse]

Hi Rabbit,....
Look at my above post #659 - there I suggested that $37.62 was a problem for WDS, as it was way back earlier this year - basically gone nowhere but down in the past 7 months....
Two Consecutive Green Candles wholly above that Benchmark Candle $37.59 Line "SHOULD" signal the start of a new ST uptrend......

I know I do not have to remind you personally M8 - BUT for everyone else, the above are just my personal thoughts, my TA is a bit different to most TA Types, but it works for me - it probably will not work for the Sheep...