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All Cashed Up and Nowhere To Go

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Garpal Gumnut

Garpal Gumnut

Ross Island Hotel
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As the XAO limps along to be just about where it was 12 months ago, Australian shares seem quite a boring if safe place to be.

I was actually hoping for a big capitulation by now. This does seem unlikely barring half the Chinese Navy Fleet appearing off Mornington Island some morning.

With the $AUD appearing to be unassailable as a currency it may be too late to bet on dollar denominated assets, as the profit has been made.

Or has it.?

Or am I being too greedy.?

It would be nice to see WES, WDS and CBA 30% lower for a sweet entry and then sit back enjoying franked divies.

Wake me up when the bloke on the beach on Mornington Island wakes up.

gg

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gg
 

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luckily, extra-bourse activities have seen me sit, and sit, and wait and watch, of late. At least the accumulating dosh, with dividend flows adding to the balance, is earning some interest. Am finding little that may not be cheaper soon.

For many, the higher for longer rates reality hasn't really sunk in, nor froth associated with ideas that may not execute to implementing.
 
Dona Ferentes said:
For many, the higher for longer rates reality hasn't really sunk in, nor froth associated with ideas that may not execute to implementing.
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as a young adult in the '70s , inflation is something i watch ( rather than Keynesian economists ) , now maybe it has been tamed , but the '70s/80s suggest it fights back on wage demands and supply reductions and ever-risings taxes ( the indexed ones )

higher rates mean bigger risks to stay break-even ( level with real inflation ) and a bigger downside when you get it wrong
 
Dona Ferentes said:
luckily, extra-bourse activities have seen me sit, and sit, and wait and watch, of late. At least the accumulating dosh, with dividend flows adding to the balance, is earning some interest. Am finding little that may not be cheaper soon.

For many, the higher for longer rates reality hasn't really sunk in, nor froth associated with ideas that may not execute to implementing.
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Agree 100%.
The old faithfulls and 4-5% interest is the go ATM for me.
 
Precious metals and 3 month term deposits. Keeping my powder dry until value eventually rears its head. The market is facing too many macro headwinds at the moment and it is achingly obvious that we need a correction and a short term bear market until economic circumstances change. The NASDAQ in particular needs to get hammered. Too much hot air in technology stocks with companies trading at crazy multiples. There needs to be a shake out.

October is traditionally the month for big corrections, and it's just around the corner, so hold on to your hats.
 
IMO this is no time for any sort of full frontal gentlemanly aussault, standing in lines in full military regalia, Captain boldly standing out front, brandishing his ridiculous revolver.

For me behind enemy lines, guerilla warfare, dressed in black, an balaklavas, hitting where I think I can sneak in unnoticed and get away cleanly... All the while maintaining a front of being ordinary, serving coffees to enemy generals, smiling and p155ing in their pocket.
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
As the XAO limps along to be just about where it was 12 months ago, Australian shares seem quite a boring if safe place
...I was actually hoping for a big capitulation by now. .
..Or has it.?
Or am I being too greedy.?
.
Click to expand...
Good instincts , says Harry Hindsight, if you had that thought at 10:09 this morning. But the timestamp tells us something else. Today's action
Screenshot_20230922-151244_Chrome.jpg
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
As the XAO limps along to be just about where it was 12 months ago
Click to expand...
At the risk of being pedantic, it's actually gone sideways almost 2.5 years now.

Recovery from the pandemic plunge reached 7063.5 in April 2021 and the rally ended in August of that year. Since then it's net sideways.

For my actively traded account, which is limited to stocks in the ASX 300, my system's been telling me to not buy new positions for a while now, months, which has made it all rather boring. :2twocents
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
As the XAO limps along to be just about where it was 12 months ago, Australian shares seem quite a boring if safe place to be.

I was actually hoping for a big capitulation by now. This does seem unlikely barring half the Chinese Navy Fleet appearing off Mornington Island some morning.

With the $AUD appearing to be unassailable as a currency it may be too late to bet on dollar denominated assets, as the profit has been made.

Or has it.?

Or am I being too greedy.?

It would be nice to see WES, WDS and CBA 30% lower for a sweet entry and then sit back enjoying franked divies.

Wake me up when the bloke on the beach on Mornington Island wakes up.

gg
Click to expand...

After posting the above, I decided in late Nov. early Dec to not wait any further for indecent entries at giveaway prices and entered during the range illustrated below and just following the large volume day on 30/11/2023 on the XAO. I anticipated a Santa Claus rally and if rates stabilise my portfolio won't much change for at least another 6 mo.

I haven't posted until now as I had some big bets and didn't want to put the moxers on my SMSF. There has been some luck involved in my choice of entry time.

I am now 20% in cash and will look at some bonds or more likely a term deposit for that cash. I have about 8% in Gold as PMGOLD.

Thanks to @ducati916 for his macro and fundamental wisdom, the AFR and FT, and to ASF for its collective wisdom.

XAO.png


gg
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
After posting the above, I decided in late Nov. early Dec to not wait any further for indecent entries at giveaway prices and entered during the range illustrated below and just following the large volume day on 30/11/2023 on the XAO. I anticipated a Santa Claus rally and if rates stabilise my portfolio won't much change for at least another 6 mo.

I haven't posted until now as I had some big bets and didn't want to put the moxers on my SMSF. There has been some luck involved in my choice of entry time.

I am now 20% in cash and will look at some bonds or more likely a term deposit for that cash. I have about 8% in Gold as PMGOLD.

Thanks to @ducati916 for his macro and fundamental wisdom, the AFR and FT, and to ASF for its collective wisdom.

View attachment 167289


gg
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more likely Indonesia attacks , huge logistics issues for a China push , they would need to send at least a half a million troops ( to cover the land mass , to suppress disorganized resistance )

Indonesia can resupply such a force without major dramas

and we keep on attacking Indonesia in war game modeling , so maybe they should feel threatened
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
After posting the above, I decided in late Nov. early Dec to not wait any further for indecent entries at giveaway prices and entered during the range illustrated below and just following the large volume day on 30/11/2023 on the XAO. I anticipated a Santa Claus rally and if rates stabilise my portfolio won't much change for at least another 6 mo.

I haven't posted until now as I had some big bets and didn't want to put the moxers on my SMSF. There has been some luck involved in my choice of entry time.

I am now 20% in cash and will look at some bonds or more likely a term deposit for that cash. I have about 8% in Gold as PMGOLD.

Thanks to @ducati916 for his macro and fundamental wisdom, the AFR and FT, and to ASF for its collective wisdom.
gg
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Santa has been kind, and generous, to those with staying power in the current markets. I've always stayed close to fully invested; this may have meant I missed getting out when its glaringly obvious. As an aside, those times are few and far between (early 2008 and Mar 2020, but not 2001 and not 1987).

Now is a good time to stay in.
 
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