Market Crash 2025

[mullokintyre]

A long time since I've even looked at this.

View attachment 197294

Looking at it over a longer time frame shows high levels of the vIX coinciding with some strong market corrections and recessions.
The figure below is older and does not include latest data, but the histotical part is signifcant.
Mick

 

[farmerge]

redux

looking uncertain.... markets don't like it

oversold
.
overbought
.
over it

Me, out the door and have many medical appointments to contend with.
Takes the mind off that pea-brained POTUS

 

[qldfrog]

This is a temporary measure until all this tariff business blows over. As painful as this is, a downturn was necessary but I believe that Trump has a very clear four year plan. He wants to turn global trade back into the USA's favour and then execute a swathe of pro-business economic policies.

Narcissists like Trump know that their legacy is the only thing of substance that they will leave behind. Trump is determined to restore the USA's economic greatness and I am willing to bet that he will achieve that to a greater extent than any previous President since Reagan. He knows if he pulls it off it is what he will be remembered for.

I'm watching for the market bottom in the next few months. I think we still have further to fall. I'm looking to get back into the market in early-mid July once the trade war has been settled. I think by then all of the negative sentiment will have been priced into the market and the bottom will be in. Then I'm going long on the US economy and will hold until the end of 2028.

+1;
I just start trickling in just in case i am wrong

 

[Bellcose]

The Orange One.

There isn't a plan but if I keep on doing something different which distracts them, people will think I have one.

 

[farmerge]

The Orange One.

There isn't a plan but if I keep on doing something different which distracts them, people will think I have one.

I thought that the "Orange One" was now dyed "blonde"

 

[farmerge]

I bought a smallish parcel of CHN a couple of days ago was shoulda, coulda but didn't take the profit yesterday.
Hit my sell price a short while ago so a bit more in the kitty. Have a ridiculously low SP buy to back in waiting in the wings.

 

[Craton]

I thought that the "Orange One" was now dyed "blonde"

Lol, might now be dyed blonde but the fake tan is still as orange as ever.

 

[farmerge]

Lol, might now be dyed blonde but the fake tan is still as orange as ever.

The false tan goes with the false persona, fake news and whatever else is false that has done the rounds over time.

 

[greggles]

Trump is playing chicken with the global economy. This standoff with China has created a lot of uncertainty in the market which will create a lot of trading opportunities.

China isn't going to simp for Trump. I don't think they like Trump's aggressive negotiating tactics. I fear they think they have lost face. If so, they will stand firm even at the short term expense of their own economy.

Next week might be an up week, but we are still headed down overall. Trump is watching 10 year bond yields. If they keep going up the market will keep go down.

 

[Knobby22]

Trump is playing chicken with the global economy. This standoff with China has created a lot of uncertainty in the market which will create a lot of trading opportunities.

China isn't going to simp for Trump. I don't think they like Trump's aggressive negotiating tactics. I fear they think they have lost face. If so, they will stand firm even at the short term expense of their own economy.

Next week might be an up week, but we are still headed down overall. Trump is watching 10 year bond yields. If they keep going up the market will keep go down.

1.6M views · 45K reactions | Rahm Emanuel: "Trump Is the Worst Negotiator" | "The damage to America...nobody will ever trust us." Rahm Emanuel and Jon Stewart discuss Trump's chaotic tariff strategy | By The Daily Show | Facebook

"The damage to America...nobody will ever trust us." Rahm Emanuel and Jon Stewart discuss Trump's chaotic tariff strategy

www.facebook.com

 

[divs4ever]

China isn't going to simp for Trump. I don't think they like Trump's aggressive negotiating tactics. I fear they think they have lost face. If so, they will stand firm even at the short term expense of their own economy.

Chinese businessman(and women ) love to barter ( argue about price ) some say it is their national sport , AND the Chinese economy had to cool and de-bottle-neck ( IMO )

don't be surprised if they take this opportunity to do just that during all this fuss , they were already starting to decouple from dollar dependency .

now Putin being a Ju-Jitsu proponent welcomes Trump's aggressiveness because he will use those forceful moves to add momentum to his counter-moves ( just like he did with all those EU sanctions )

now two questions .. can Japan hold ( relatively ) strong ?

and will India try to stay neutral , or will it be bullied into China's shadow

think of all this as an attempt to smash BRICS ( divide to conquer ) and see if this makes sense to you and your investment decisions

SO FAR , they seem to have separated Brazil , but lost a large chunk of the Muslim world to BRICS and are busy trying to separate South Africa

 

[farmerge]

Chinese businessman(and women ) love to barter ( argue about price ) some say it is their national sport , AND the Chinese economy had to cool and de-bottle-neck ( IMO )

don't be surprised if they take this opportunity to do just that during all this fuss , they were already starting to decouple from dollar dependency .

now Putin being a Ju-Jitsu proponent welcomes Trump's aggressiveness because he will use those forceful moves to add momentum to his counter-moves ( just like he did with all those EU sanctions )

now two questions .. can Japan hold ( relatively ) strong ?

and will India try to stay neutral , or will it be bullied into China's shadow

think of all this as an attempt to smash BRICS ( divide to conquer ) and see if this makes sense to you and your investment decisions

SO FAR , they seem to have separated Brazil , but lost a large chunk of the Muslim world to BRICS and are busy trying to separate South Africa

@divs4ever Time to call it. "King" Donald thinks he is "King" of the world. Sadly(or happily for the world) for him landing flat on his face appears what will happen, "King" or not.

 

[divs4ever]

@divs4ever Time to call it. "King" Donald thinks he is "King" of the world. Sadly(or happily for the world) for him landing flat on his face appears what will happen, "King" or not.

not just Trump , and that is a BIG problem

 

[Dona Ferentes]

"The truth is that visibility is virtually non-existent right now. Price discovery is shot." “Let’s be honest – the only credible pathway to even start undoing the damage is through olive branches aimed at reversing US-China tensions. Superpower brinkmanship isn’t exactly market-friendly.”

- Stephen Innes in his daily The Dark Side Of The Boom newsletter

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

"The truth is that visibility is virtually non-existent right now. Price discovery is shot." “Let’s be honest – the only credible pathway to even start undoing the damage is through olive branches aimed at reversing US-China tensions. Superpower brinkmanship isn’t exactly market-friendly.”

- Stephen Innes in his daily The Dark Side Of The Boom newsletter

One of the main impediments to rapprochement between China and the USA is Vance. He is however an automaton and once set on a course needs to be turned off like a recalcitrant TV set, wait for a while, and then turn him on again before he is ready for new orders. The VPOTUS of the US is traditionally used to negotiate a resolution of disputes behind the scenes. This guy is trouble.

On the other hand Trump is terrified of a bond debacle so will probably directly intervene as he has with AAPL to prevent a crash.

gg

 

[Knobby22]

I changed my super to premixed conservative a week ago from stable, don't want to time the markets too hard.

I think the grown ups are in the room now with the President.

 

[dyna]

This guy is trouble.

Old mate J. D. could well be the next president .
Have the Republicans thought this through , I wonder ?
Nobody's laughing at the Trumpster , anymore .
Vance will scare the pants off the whole world . It's only 4 years away . too !

 

[farmerge]

I changed my super to premixed conservative a week ago from stable, don't want to time the markets too hard.

I think the grown ups are in the room now with the President.

It is to be hoped that is case rather than what we have being witnessing, a classic kindergarten melee.

 

[farmerge]

Old mate J. D. could well be the next president .
Have the Republicans thought this through , I wonder ?
Nobody's laughing at the Trumpster , anymore .
Vance will scare the pants off the whole world . It's only 4 years away . too !

@dyna Perhaps the whole lot, kit and caboodle, should be impeached and a new election rescheduled without The Trumpet and cohorts.

 

[divs4ever]

@dyna Perhaps the whole lot, kit and caboodle, should be impeached and a new election rescheduled without The Trumpet and cohorts.

have you looked at what else you would get , since the BIG end of town does all the funding( vote-buying )

Gabbard joined Trump , Kennedy joined Trump , the old Republicans would have us in a nuclear war as soon as possible , you just saw the best the Democrats had , the small folk just get ignored by the media , so nobody knows they are in the race ( Kennedy learned that the hard way , as did Ron Paul before him )

at best you would get Micheal Bloomberg

besides they tried the impeachment thing between 2016 to 2021