Fundamental Positions II

[ducati916]

Realist

I totally disagree....

PER of 15.8, PB of 2.9, and crappy dividends of 1.2%

This is fairly valued at best.

Your lack of attention to detail should be of great concern, but I suspect otherwise. I am going to highlight the relevent section that you seem to have missed................In fact after a quick review, I see that in point of fact that you have modified and tampered with my original post.
I shall check with the moderators on this rather poor showing.

Originally Posted by ducati916
Current Price $18.81
Code CAR
Market Capitalization: 21B
Price / Earnings: 15.8
Price / Book: 2.9
Net Profit Margin 6.8%
Price To Free Cash Flow -6.3
Return on Equity: 11.9%
Total Debt / Equity: 1.6
Dividend Yield: 1.2%

And the correct original posting;


Industry Statistics

Market Capitalization: 21B
Price / Earnings: 15.8
Price / Book: 2.9
Net Profit Margin 6.8%
Price To Free Cash Flow -6.3
Return on Equity: 11.9%
Total Debt / Equity: 1.6
Dividend Yield: 1.2%

So you see, as a comparison to the INDUSTRY CAR, is quite severely undervalued.

I make it your current (not sold yet) aggregate is -9.6%

And overall including those shares you have yet to sell you are up 5%. Which after 40 lots of brokerage (when you sell them all) and tax, and inflation indexed means you are down, certainly not up 32.4%!

But have you included dividends?

And SEPR is $47 what is going on?

*If we take it to two decimel places, then the correct figure = [-8.96%]
*Dividends are not included
*With regards to open positions, I have had every peanut in Australia argue this same point; profit or loss, is only calculated on closed, banked, profits or losses. I include the open positions for transparency, and, to illustrate the reality of this methodology; viz. there can be quite severe drawdowns.

The closed positions are realized profits & losses
At this time, the aggregate gross profit = 32.4%
This will be reduced by tax & brokerage, but as they are individual metrics, there is no necessity to calculate for demonstration purposes.

As regards SEPR, if you had completed just a modicom of research, you would have found the answer to your question, SEPR is a Convertible, that guarantees a 2% profit, or, the return on the common, if, converted.

jog on
d998

 

[Realist]

Your lack of attention to detail should be of great concern, but I suspect otherwise. I am going to highlight the relevent section that you seem to have missed................In fact after a quick review, I see that in point of fact that you have modified and tampered with my original post.
.

I did delete some stuff. Yeah.

The closed positions are realized profits & losses
At this time, the aggregate gross profit = 32.4%

Whatever.

 

[ducati916]

Realist

I did delete some stuff. Yeah.

Well actually no.
You tampered with the original content that completely changed the context and factual basis of the post.

You in point of fact committed fraud
Now I have had some doozy dust-ups through the years with all manner of posters, but I have never experienced up till now, outright fraud of the kind that you just perpetrated.

You should be banned.
Whether you are, or not, is irrelevant as your ethical code is on plain display.
Stupidity is forgivable, you can't help your genetic potential.
Reputation however is earned over a lifetime, and lost in a heartbeat.

 

[Sean K]

Realist

Well actually no.
You tampered with the original content that completely changed the context and factual basis of the post.

You in point of fact committed fraud
Now I have had some doozy dust-ups through the years with all manner of posters, but I have never experienced up till now, outright fraud of the kind that you just perpetrated.

You should be banned.
Whether you are, or not, is irrelevant as your ethical code is on plain display.
Stupidity is forgivable, you can't help your genetic potential.
Reputation however is earned over a lifetime, and lost in a heartbeat.

Holy cow dudes. this is a friendly forum.

Duc, you need to substantiate the claims mate. I can't see fraud, just deletion of unnecessary stuff. Did what was deleted really change your voice?

 

[doctorj]

Realist
Well actually no.
You tampered with the original content that completely changed the context and factual basis of the post.

You in point of fact committed fraud

Duc,

I really think he just misread your post and confused the industry stats with that of the company and wound up quoting the wrong bit. While Realist either hasn't admitted it yet or hasn't realised, I'm pretty certain it was just an honest mistake.

As for closed v open, I'm not going to touch that arguement with a 40ft pole as I can see the merits of either method.

Happy trading.

 

[tech/a]

Whatever.

Duc's always had a problem valueing his portfolio.

I agree with you but Duc has 3 yrs to prove his point. (2.3 left)

 

[ducati916]

Kennas

Duc, you need to substantiate the claims mate. I can't see fraud, just deletion of unnecessary stuff. Did what was deleted really change your voice?

Easy to substantiate.
And it materially changed the post.

Altered post;

Originally Posted by ducati916
Current Price $18.81
Code CAR
Market Capitalization: 21B
Price / Earnings: 15.8
Price / Book: 2.9
Net Profit Margin 6.8%
Price To Free Cash Flow -6.3
Return on Equity: 11.9%
Total Debt / Equity: 1.6
Dividend Yield: 1.2%

The two originals that were utilized to create the fraudulent post;

Industry Statistics

Market Capitalization: 21B
Price / Earnings: 15.8
Price / Book: 2.9
Net Profit Margin 6.8%
Price To Free Cash Flow -6.3
Return on Equity: 11.9%
Total Debt / Equity: 1.6
Dividend Yield: 1.2%

Current Price $18.81
Code CAR
Yield 23.5%
Market Capitalization $25226.0 million [adjusted]
TCI Price Target $207.00 to $282.74
Investment Car Rentals
P/E Ratio 2.32
Recommendation Buy

As you can see, the alterations to the two originals, that result in the fraudulent post differ materially;

*yield 23.5% against 1.2%
*P/E 2.3 against 15.8
*Capitalization $25226.0 million against $21Billion

doctorj

Duc,

I really think he just misread your post and confused the industry stats with that of the company and wound up quoting the wrong bit. While Realist either hasn't admitted it yet or hasn't realised, I'm pretty certain it was just an honest mistake.

These are not small or inconsequential differences in a valuation.
Taking Realists level of claimed expertise into account in everything from Real Estate valuation to the valuation of common stock, the evidence would suggest, not stupidity, but malfeasence.

I feel no requirement to hunt around the site finding examples of postings that substantiate the charge of "expert", the forum generally has accepted that Realist is [within Fundamental Analysis] an acknowledged practitioner and expert.

There is also the frank admission of;

I did delete some stuff. Yeah.

What was deleted, modified?
Areas that have been the subject of possibly hundereds of posts by Realist viz. P/E ratio's & Dividend Yields.

These two topics have resurfaced in any number of posts, where, Realist has been attempting to educate misguided traders to the fallacy of their short time frames, and missing out on the value of steady and increasing dividends.

Likewise, with the P/E ratio, the primary valuation tool of the Realist many posts where a criteria for purchase is volunteered, it is the P/E ratio that has been produced as evidence for the undervaluation.

Therefore, there is no doubt that rather than an innocent error, that this was a premeditated attempt to commit fraud. He has been weighed, he has been measured, and he has been found wanting.

tech/a

Duc's always had a problem valueing his portfolio.

I agree with you but Duc has 3 yrs to prove his point. (2.3 left)

Which is why I report the results the way that I do.
They are transparent trades.
They are posted and called in real time.
The results are easily verifiable
They show the good, the bad, and the ugly.
The valuation thereof, is left to the individual to decide for themselves.
To be fair, there is not enough information to value it precisely, but the point of the exercise was to demonstrate the validity of analysis in a specific timeframe [3yrs] Win% [90%+] Return% [30%+]

jog on
d998

 

[Realist]

This thread is quite ridiculous.

Ducati will lose money but not sell some shares so he'll claim he made money and accuse anyone who disagrees with him of treason.

 

[happytrader]

I like checking this thread out because it is actually an excellent example of how with logic and rationalisation one can become attached to an outcome especially in the face of some quite large drops. Huge mental toughness required to manage so very many stocks.

Personally I think this is a great strategy for ASX banking stocks as they don't halve in value too often.

Cheers
Happytrader

Disclaimer

This is not financial advice. Do your own research and take responsiblity for yourself.

 

[ducati916]

Realist

This thread is quite ridiculous.

Ducati will lose money but not sell some shares so he'll claim he made money and accuse anyone who disagrees with him of treason.

The defence against the charge of fraud consists of evasion.
Quick, change the subject, and hope it all gets forgotten.
Unfortunately, you have overstepped the mark by directly stating as a fact, a complete fabrication and falsehood.

Originally Posted by ducati916
Current Price $18.81
Code CAR
Market Capitalization: 21B
Price / Earnings: 15.8
Price / Book: 2.9
Net Profit Margin 6.8%
Price To Free Cash Flow -6.3
Return on Equity: 11.9%
Total Debt / Equity: 1.6
Dividend Yield: 1.2%

By quoting

"Originally Posted by ducati998"

you identify yourself as the liar that you are.

By doctoring the post, you compound your crime by committing fraud.
Obviously your ethics are not worth the steam off my piss.

That you either do not accept, or are too stupid to understand, you have committed a major faux pas, in finance, your word, and the strength of your word are important. Your word is worth nothing.

I hope you will not contaminate my thread further.

 

[Realist]

I did indeed delete stuff that made CAR's figures wrong, by mistake. I admit it!!

Now admit you're not up 30% as you say, because most of your shares that are supposedly "grossly undervalued" have infact plumetted. And you should be counting all your shares not just the ones you have sold.


And in reality if you were to take into account all factors like brokerage, tax and inflation you are losing money!

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

I enjoy reading Duc`s posts and the commitment to posting his realtime investing.

Realist, respect Duc`s wishes please and exit left.

 

[nizar]

I enjoy reading Duc`s posts and the commitment to posting his realtime investing.

So do I

Realist, respect Duc`s wishes please and exit left.

I second that

 

[Realist]

I've had my say, I'll leave...

where's me coat?

 

[cuttlefish]

Realist

Your lack of attention to detail should be of great concern, but I suspect otherwise.

ducati - realist demonstrates considerable lack of attention to detail as a general rule - which is why I'm fairly confident it was a typical realist style mistake and not deliberate fraud.

I feel no requirement to hunt around the site finding examples of postings that substantiate the charge of "expert", the forum generally has accepted that Realist is [within Fundamental Analysis] an acknowledged practitioner and expert.

If realist is in fact accepted as any kind of expert on fundamental investing on this forum then fundamental investors are poorly represented here.


And I also concur with snake and nizar.
<<<=====================

 

[ducati916]

Chap's

Ok, storm in a tea-cup, case closed.

There will be no updates for the next 2 weeks, as I am away on business, and there is incredibly, no internet access.

jog on
d998

 

[ducati916]

Sold UST @ $55.72

jog on
d998

 

[ducati916]

CALL......$4.76........................$2.70...... ...................(-43.2%)
SAFM......$26.45.....................$28.29........ .................+6.9%
FORD......$10.74.....................$5.78....... .................(-46.2%)

CTT......$4.00.......................$2.61........ ..................(-34.5%)
CQB......$17.47.....................$12.98........ .................(-25.7%)
TOL......$29.78.....................$29.22........ .................(-1.6%)


SGTL....$10.30.....................$5.61...... .....................(-45.5%)
EVCI....$1.44.......................$0.66........ ...................(-54.1%)

SEPR....$92.50.................................... ..............................
OFIX....$37.44....................$47.16.......... ..................+25.9%
WON....$6.65.....................$7.50............ ..................+12.8%
NAFC...$20.52....................$25.00........... .................+21.8%
CAR....$18.48....................$19.46........... ..................+5.3%

Aggregate......................................... ....................[-13.7%]


Closed Trades

ISSC...................+8.1%
HNR....................+21.6%
EGY....................+61.8%
LRT....................+29.2%
KND....................+34.0%
GKIS..................+37.8%
DRYS..................+34.0%
UST...................+35.2% [not inc. dividends]

Aggregate..............+32.7%

jog on
d998

 

[tech/a]

Portfolio value Nett + 3.9%


Fairway from the 30% a year. (I know 2 to go).

 

[tech/a]

Ducster.

I reckon your snaffoood.

Your plan is to prove that you can trade 30% or more each year over 3 yrs with your method.Pulling your trades out at 30 or so % leave you well short.
(You wouldnt be much better had you held them I worked it out--35%).
At the end of 3 yrs you will have to sell all losers---unless you dramatically increase your winning trades you have no hope!!
OR dramatically increase your % profit OR dramatically decrease your losses---currently all back to zero loss would do it!


Carry on