Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[divs4ever]

I don't think DOGE is relevant here. If Fort Knox and other storage facilities have been looted, the US government worked it out decades ago. I didn't bother discussing it in my previous post but you brought up some of the very very obvious motives for the US government keeping it secret. They would be insane to reveal the truth to the public on that one. I prefer transparency but even I would not want that story being made public. Sure, if it happened in China, by all means expose it as far as I'm concerned, but when the USA has been the primary force keeping the world safe since 1945 and without them I'd have been killed by Indonesians as a kid, and the world would be run by one or a small number of genocidal dictatorships (and everyone would look at history and learn about how the Germans and Japanese did a wonderful job of defeating the evil, ignorant Americans and British and all those terrible, inferior Jews and blacks and south east Asians etc were removed from our planet).

So, as terrible as the USA is, most of us owe our existence and all of us owe our way of lives to them, because evil as they may be and as much as we should try to force them to improve, they are the far lesser evil holding back tremendously greater evil which would still love very much to exterminate us, and I don't wish to see them fall.

Today, with modern surveillance technology and equipment which can assess gold bars without cutting them up or melting them down, looting gold from places like Fort Knox would be far more difficult and detection far easier, but the looting was probably done before I was born and it was likely discovered before I knew who the president of the USA was. I'd love to know the true story, but in a way, I'm glad I never will.

regarding 'tight security ' i give you two words Jeffrey Epstein

regarding the gold many anomalies could exist , gold not as pure as it should be , gold bars allotted to multiple people/companies , gold from illegal sources , large numbers of bars not actually in Fort Knox.. security is only as good as those trying to bypass it ( what if insiders ARE the problem )

there are several ways of testing the gold ( with modern tech ) some only the suspect ones would need in-depth analysis

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

This is all becoming very complicated, overly so. Gold has been hoarded and stolen for millennia. Men have cheated, murdered, sold their kin, and committed many other misdeeds, all in the pursuit of Gold. Is anything really different today?

So what if Gold has been stolen from Fort Knox. That is a problem for the US Treasury and the $USD.

The more I think about it in fact, the more I hope it has been stolen. Gold can only increase more in value if the whereabouts of a large supply source has all of a sudden become unknown.

gg

 

[finicky]

Salty's excited about this.

 

[Sdajii]

regarding 'tight security ' i give you two words Jeffrey Epstein

regarding the gold many anomalies could exist , gold not as pure as it should be , gold bars allotted to multiple people/companies , gold from illegal sources , large numbers of bars not actually in Fort Knox.. security is only as good as those trying to bypass it ( what if insiders ARE the problem )

there are several ways of testing the gold ( with modern tech ) some only the suspect ones would need in-depth analysis

Absolutely. We live in a world where about half the people think anyone who thinks the government lies is a 'crazy conspiracy theorist' while we also see the most incredibly blatant conspiracies anyone could ever imagine. Things like the absurdly blatant Epstein murder, the transparent lies related to covid-19, and all the others throughout the decades and centuries make you wonder about the legitimacy of the things which seem at all questionable, and sometimes even things which seem legitimate. And of course, to confuse people we have seen psyops become prevalent, such as moon landing doubting and flat Earth theory, so that as many people as possible will lump any questioning of official narratives in with whackjob ideas like microchips in the vaccines and the Earth being flat. Few people even try to think for themselves and most of those who try are capable of critical thinking.

Fort Knox having been looted is very much in the grey zone. There's no clear evidence so I wouldn't say it's definitely true, but the lack of auditing, refusal to promptly return gold belonging to other countries after they say they no longer want to pay for it to be stored there, easy ability of high level trusted government staff to do it (at least, back before we had surveillance and gold assessing technology), and all the reasons for the US government keeping it secret once discovered, all point to it being most likely that the gold was stolen and then discovered to be stolen quite some decades ago. I have no idea who did it or where the gold went, but I'd gladly bet on a high level trusted government employee, or group of such or headed by such.

Who guards the guards? Who watches the watchers? Heck, it could literally have been a president behind or involved in it - complete power to do it, plenty of motive.

 

[Sdajii]

This is all becoming very complicated, overly so. Gold has been hoarded and stolen for millennia. Men have cheated, murdered, sold their kin, and committed many other misdeeds, all in the pursuit of Gold. Is anything really different today?

So what if Gold has been stolen from Fort Knox. That is a problem for the US Treasury and the $USD.

The more I think about it in fact, the more I hope it has been stolen. Gold can only increase more in value if the whereabouts of a large supply source has all of a sudden become unknown.

gg

I thought it went without saying that it would boost the price of gold if it was ever discovered.

I think it's fair to say that even if Fort Knox was never looted, other significant gold stores have been and for similar reasons it has been kept secret. There are plenty of vaults and warehouses full of gold around the world, obviously some have been looted in a big world with so many, we just don't know which ones or how many.

But Fort Knox specifically? Sure, it would boost your gold's value, but that story going public would harm your life more than help it. We're currently in the most significant cold war in history, and we can't afford the USA to lose.

 

[ducati916]

From JC

Monday, February 17, 2025 Gold’s Been Screaming Higher — Now It’s Time for Outperformance Gold futures keep ripping to all-time highs. It’s already up 100% vs. the broader commodity complex. But here’s the thing — it hasn’t outperformed stocks. Yet. That’s about to change. Gold is flirting with multi year highs relative to the S&P 500. Look at the chart ​ Click the chart to enlarge it. That key level? Resistance in 2003. Since then? Support — time and time again. And guess what? The bulls just stepped in again. Check out the PPO in the lower pane — zero-line cross triggering now. One of our favorite long-term buy signals. Gold’s been crushing it on an absolute basis. Now, it’s setting up for outperformance vs. stocks. We’re betting this is the beginning of a major trend shift.

jog on
duc

 

[mullokintyre]

I thought it went without saying that it would boost the price of gold if it was ever discovered.

I think it's fair to say that even if Fort Knox was never looted, other significant gold stores have been and for similar reasons it has been kept secret. There are plenty of vaults and warehouses full of gold around the world, obviously some have been looted in a big world with so many, we just don't know which ones or how many.

But Fort Knox specifically? Sure, it would boost your gold's value, but that story going public would harm your life more than help it. We're currently in the most significant cold war in history, and we can't afford the USA to lose.

I am not completely confident of my source at the pub, but he tells me that years ago the chinese started boring through the earth, ostensibly for scientific purposes, but in reality they planned to bore all the way through to Fort Knox and steal the gold.
The CIA got wind of it, and stole the gold themselves, but let the Chinese keep boring away so that when it was all discovered, they could conveniently point to the hole through the earth and blame the Chinese.
Mick

 

[qldfrog]

And to be clear: when i discussed the US gold being looted: not a big heist style, just the gov or feds selling/loaning it , and if any fake gold: moving fake /gold plated lead bars instead

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I do not believe that I have ever enjoyed holding Gold as much as I do now. Once the conspiracy theories begin it can only be good for the price.

DOGE finally are allowed in to Fort Knox



gg

 

[Sean K]

It seems that if you're waiting for a decent correction to add to this story (like me) then you're missing out.

When was the last time there were eight down days that were immediately bought up?



The weekly hasn't been down for 8 weeks, so far.



Perhaps Fort Knox IS empty!

Or, the US is about to monetise their gold or re-value it to whatever suits them.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

It seems that if you're waiting for a decent correction to add to this story (like me) then you're missing out.

When was the last time there were eight down days that were immediately bought up?

I decided to add to my holdings about 2-3 weeks ago and waited for a small retracement day when the AUD/USD was in my favour ( don't ask me which way it goes, I use fingers and TIME when buying )

Surprisingly with getting more PMGOLD on the day I noticed the last trade prices were lagging the spot price on tradingview charts and placed a bid just above the highest bid price which was filled. It continued north after that but has touched around my buy price a few times since but generally has not diluted my stash average price too much. I've re-accumulated close to what I want after selling off in November.

It depends too on your mood and analysis. Should you strongly believe a retracement is on ... wait. If not ... your decision.

gg

 

[ducati916]

So



Treasury Secretary Bessent’s proposal that has been floated by Bessent, Trump’s Head of CEA Stephen Miran, and others, to term out US debt to 50- or 100-year tenors, with the promise of a defense umbrella and access to USD swap lines for liquidity.

So ignoring whether Ft Knox has gold or not, the issue is massive inflation through the Fed providing Swap lines to any sovereign nation that buys long dated Treasuries so that the debt can be termed out.

Remember $7 Trillion rolls over this year and there is no agreement on the debt ceiling. You just know that the Democrats will fight Trump to the death over this.

jog on
duc

 

[rcw1]

And to be clear: when i discussed the US gold being looted: not a big heist style, just the gov or feds selling/loaning it , and if any fake gold: moving fake /gold plated lead bars instead

Good evening qldfrog
Who would know for sure??? Thinking there be plenty of gold at the bottom of oceans... from storms, battles and the pirates of yesteryear ...

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[ducati916]

London Gold


Since the transfer of oversight of the London Gold Market and London Silver Market to the Bank of England in 1986, these markets both moved rapidly to trading promissory note cash/spot markets.

The rub with these cash contracts for gold and silver is that they are unallocated - each of the contracts were backed with promises to deliver metal to the holder on demand but are not backed by any specific bars of metal.

The London market has thus operated until now on the basis that the seller of the contract pretended to sell metal to the buyer, and the buyer / holder of the spot contract pretended to buy metal in the City of London’s cash metal market.

This system of metal leverage can appear to function so long as metal delivery demand does not exceed metal available for delivery - except that is happening today.

With an estimated 400 million (M) oz. of gold spot contracts issued into the London Gold Market, there is an enormous amount of notional wealth tied-up in these promissory notes. Holders include sovereign wealth funds, hedge funds, family offices, industrial metal users, investment funds, etc. This is no small matter.

Since early December 2024 approximately 18M oz. of gold have been imported into New York vaults. This demand from New York for bar delivery has thrown a wrench into the London Gold Market’s function creating the demand for an enormous amount of leased gold that has driven the gold lease rate over 10% in London and causing the BoE to push-out gold deliveries to market to 8 weeks in comparison to the normal few days.

Leasing of gold is what the issuer of a cash/spot contract does when they are required to make delivery against a cash contract but do not have or are unable to purchase adequate gold to settle the contract in the short term.

According to a London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) expert paneldiscussion to clarify and explain the current London dynamics and dysfunction, approximately 1/2 of the gold imported into NY vaults since early December has come from London.
The net signal then is that 9M oz. of London gold delivery demand over a 2 month period has distressed the London cash gold market.

The LBMA discussion is a must listen: https://www.lbma.org.uk/articles/gold-market-dynamics

The panel clarifies that the demand for delivery of physical gold to NY from elsewhere in the world is due to tariffs, is 1/2 due to tariffs and 1/2 due to other things, is due to 10 to 15 things.

It is also stated by panelists Adrian Ash and LBMA CEO Ruth Crowell that there is no shortage of gold in London.

The key of course is how much actual physical gold liquidity is available to market to settle the estimated 400M oz. of cash/spot gold contracts estimated to exist in the London market. There is certainly lots of gold in London vaults however market signals such as the London gold lease rate indicate that very little gold is available for delivery to settle these cash contracts.

9 Million Oz. Down, 391M oz. To Go​

The holders of the other 391M oz. of cash/spot gold contracts find themselves in an unenviable position. The market has sent a signal regarding the lack of liquid physical gold available to settle delivery demand in the London market.

One solution is to approach one of the world’s gold refineries to acquire gold while quietly selling the London cash contracts over time - simply leaving the paper to circulate. The 7 major Western refineries have refining capacity of 160M oz. per year, however the majority of their forward gold production is spoken-for well beforehand.

If this draw of London gold into the US and then other countries continues over time, the market will be making clear that it is shutting-down the leveraged London cash gold (and silver) markets.

A further confirmatory market signal over time would a steady erosion of the value of a London spot/cash gold contract in comparison to other markets such as the NY price.

We will watch the London signals over time - and, given London’s market leverage, that may not be a long time.


jog on
duc

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Thanks @ducati916 , the travails of the London Gold market are clear from your post, diminishing physical gold available for settlement, suspicion on the part of customers of the ability of London to manage paper Gold and a flight to safety in other gold markets.

This article from kitco illustrates the global demand for physical is inexorable and Asian markets will apply their own pressure to the POG when gold becomes less physically available.

It is similar to any product, gold or food, less available with even steady demand leads to an increase in price, add in increased demand and one can explain the parabolic increase in the POG.

BRICS banks bleeding gold bars: China and Russia face runaway gold demand

The Kitco News Team brings you the latest news, videos, analysis and opinions regarding Precious Metals, Crypto, Mining, World Markets and Global Economy.

www.kitco.com

gg

 

[finicky]

I pity these people trying to keep something separate from the Chinese government. They risk being criminalised one day unless they relinquish it to the CCP for a rip-off cash rate.




Feb 19, 2025 #chinaobserver
This is absolutely crazy. Right now, there might not be any other asset in the world that's being snapped up like gold—by central banks, global investors, businesses, and regular people all at the same time. And the key here is, they’re all going after physical gold. This could be the biggest scramble for real gold we've ever seen. And with this frenzy, global gold prices just keep climbing, hitting new record highs almost every day.

 

[Sean K]

I pity these people trying to keep something separate from the Chinese government. They risk being criminalised one day unless they relinquish it to the CCP for a rip-off cash rate.

View attachment 193570


Feb 19, 2025 #chinaobserver
This is absolutely crazy. Right now, there might not be any other asset in the world that's being snapped up like gold—by central banks, global investors, businesses, and regular people all at the same time. And the key here is, they’re all going after physical gold. This could be the biggest scramble for real gold we've ever seen. And with this frenzy, global gold prices just keep climbing, hitting new record highs almost every day.

View attachment 193571

Becoming tulip-like.

 

[ducati916]

Full:https://www.zerohedge.com/commoditi...refuses-provide-records-foreign-gold-holdings


jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

More on Ft. Knox:

In his post Elon referenced a separate note from Senator Mike Lee (Utah Republican):

As a U.S. senator I’ve tried repeatedly to get into Fort Knox
Fort Knox: “You can’t come to Fort Knox.”
Me: “Why?”
Fort Knox: “It’s a military installation.”
Me: “I’m a senator; I go to military bases all the time.”
Fort Knox: “You still can’t come. Because, you can’t.”

It does seem strange that a gold audit hasn’t been done since the 1950’s… And why can’t our politicians visit the gold, anyway?

We need a full gold audit. With Elon’s support, it looks like that may finally happen. Senator Rand Paul is also on board, along with his father Ron.

I honestly wasn’t sure we’d ever see the day where such things would be openly questioned. Let alone audited.

We have officially entered a new era. Previously untouchable subjects are now open for debate.

The Overton Window Shifts​

The “Overton window” is the range of subjects which are considered acceptable to discuss in society.

I’ve never seen it shift as rapidly as it has over the past five years. Not even close.

Just a few years back anyone who questioned U.S. gold reserves was considered a wacky conspiracy theorist. Suddenly it’s a mainstream issue.


And it goes far beyond the monetary world. For example, it’s now widely acknowledged that COVID was a man-made virus.

Joe Rogan and Elon Musk are openly saying that Democrats increased immigration to gain votes and power.

The Overton window has been blown open by hurricane-force winds. It appears we’re finally going to get some of the change we’ve been waiting for.

Is the Gold There?​

The United States Treasury reports 8,133 metric tons of gold reserves. Fort Knox holds 4,500 of those tons.

So… is it there? Jim Rickards is my go-to expert on these issues, and he says we don’t have any reason to doubt official reserve numbers.

Jim was recently quoted by Newsweek on this very topic:

Attorney and investment banker James Rickards told Newsweek that an audit would “help restore the confidence of U.S. citizens in government representations,” but that there was “no reason to doubt that the U.S. has exactly the amount of gold that it represents, about 8,133 metric tons.”

Jim also has an elegant explanation for why they haven’t done any gold audits since the 1950’s. He says it’s because the government wants to downplay the importance of gold. Why audit something so unimportant? They want the dollar to be center-stage.

However, we’re not out of the woods yet. Mr. Rickards says the government may have leased out too much of its gold. More from Newsweek:

[Jim Rickards] said an interesting revelation could be how much of the U.S. gold is leased—i.e., given to borrowers in exchange for fees, which Rickards described as “a way to inject more gold into the banking system than actually exists in physical form.”

“That’s a can of worms that only a few experts understand and the government has definitely not wanted to acknowledge. DOGE may open the can of worms,” he continued.

I truly hope it’s all there and unencumbered. Our nation’s monetary future may depend on it.

We probably won’t know for sure whether the U.S. gold reserves are intact for some time. DOGE has much to do, but auditing the Federal Reserve and Treasury should be high up on that list.

In the meantime, there are key takeaways here. The Overton window is now wide open. What were previously crazy conspiracy theories are officially up for debate in the mainstream discourse.

Some will prove to be nothing-burgers, but I believe many of these previously “unmentionable” topics are critical issues we need to discuss. Like immigration, healthcare, fraud, and waste of taxpayer dollars. Pretty important stuff…

I call it progress. We should be able to question our system, and demand the best of it. I believe this is one of the most important developments so far in Trump’s second term.

Let the slaying of sacred D.C. cows begin (metaphorically!).


AND

The cost to borrow shares of SPDR® Gold Trust ‘GLD’-NY have increased 7% intraday to 10.45% on February 18, 2025.

‘Authorized participants’, traditionally large banks, have the ability to redeem 100,000 share ‘baskets’ of GLD Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) shares at a time and take delivery of ~ 10,000 oz. of gold.

​

Figure 1 - SPDR® Gold Trust ETF Shares Borrow Rate - NY; source: ChartExchange.com

Possession of GLD shares thus allow banks a quick way to source physical gold liquidity when needed.

There is an increasingly strong and accelerating market demand for physical gold liquidity right now.




jog on
duc

 

[mullokintyre]

More on Ft. Knox:



.

However, we’re not out of the woods yet. Mr. Rickards says the government may have leased out too much of its gold. More from Newsweek:


“That’s a can of worms that only a few experts understand and the government has definitely not wanted to acknowledge. DOGE may open the can of worms,” he continued.

I truly hope it’s all there and unencumbered. Our nation’s monetary future may depend on it.







jog on
duc

Ha Ha, trust the Yanks to convert a basic form of value in to a fractional banking ponzi scheme!.
mick