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There's got to be only one way Lithium is heading as a commodity and that's north. A lot of prospects for lithium as demand grows. Hear on the news constructing new mines here in Australia...Check out Report from Fat prophets;


Lithium; short-term noise long-term poise
The debate on global warming has now just about passed, with the verdict that the use
of carbon based energy sources to generate the worlds’ current and future energy needs
is causing harm. As a result, the emergence of winners and losers in the energy complex
is slowly starting to take shape, which will see the more traditional energy sources
moving away from centre stage and be replaced by new age energy sources. Right
throughout this period and beyond one thing is certain, the world will still need to
generate energy.
One commodity in lithium, has stepped into the energy complex mix in a major way
over the past six years. This early step up by lithium has been driven by the auto
industry, as it now moves away from carbon powerplants to carbonless powerplants for
mainstream production lines. The following pie charts shows the forecast impact of this
swing on the demand for lithium out to 2030:


1654658837882.png
The demands on lithium from E-transportation, primarily, reached 306,000 tonnes in
2020, with the electric vehicle (EV) sector making up just 44%, of the demand for

lithium. As Members can see from the above charts, E-transportation in just nine years is
forecast to expand to 86% of lithium demand and push traditional markets back to just
10%. In lithium tonnage terms, the forecast for 2030 stands at 2.4 million tonnes, and
equates to a compound annual growth rate of 23.6%. Under this growth scenario, by
2030 there will have to be some 39 Allkem size producers spitting out lithium.
 
Stockybailz said:
There's got to be only one way Lithium is heading as a commodity and that's north. A lot of prospects for lithium as demand grows. Hear on the news constructing new mines here in Australia...Check out Report from Fat prophets;


Lithium; short-term noise long-term poise
The debate on global warming has now just about passed, with the verdict that the use
of carbon based energy sources to generate the worlds’ current and future energy needs
is causing harm. As a result, the emergence of winners and losers in the energy complex
is slowly starting to take shape, which will see the more traditional energy sources
moving away from centre stage and be replaced by new age energy sources. Right
throughout this period and beyond one thing is certain, the world will still need to
generate energy.
One commodity in lithium, has stepped into the energy complex mix in a major way
over the past six years. This early step up by lithium has been driven by the auto
industry, as it now moves away from carbon powerplants to carbonless powerplants for
mainstream production lines. The following pie charts shows the forecast impact of this
swing on the demand for lithium out to 2030:


View attachment 142663
The demands on lithium from E-transportation, primarily, reached 306,000 tonnes in
2020, with the electric vehicle (EV) sector making up just 44%, of the demand for

lithium. As Members can see from the above charts, E-transportation in just nine years is
forecast to expand to 86% of lithium demand and push traditional markets back to just
10%. In lithium tonnage terms, the forecast for 2030 stands at 2.4 million tonnes, and
equates to a compound annual growth rate of 23.6%. Under this growth scenario, by
2030 there will have to be some 39 Allkem size producers spitting out lithium.
Click to expand...

So a few more years and we should see much higher prices for Lithium, which should translate to increase SP of quality miners.

Though that will depend on how many new miners get involved and how fast they all start producing. Betting on Lithium prices going up is a 50/50 chance. There is no shortage of the mineral, only the production.
​
"Beijing called for an increase in output from lithium smelters and miners to relieve the rally that saw prices reach record-highs of 497,500 yuan/tonne in March."​

Lithium carbonate prices in China were at 472,500 yuan/tonne in early June, rising from the three-month lows of 457,700 that held through May amid a rebound in demand projections as strict Covid lockdowns in Shanghai were relaxed. As cases were seen lower in major Chinese cities, investors ramped up bets that electric vehicle manufacturers will return to increased capacity after lockdowns halted auto production during April, as lower demand during the period saw new energy passenger vehicles plummet 40% when compared to March. Despite the blip during the start of Q2, carbonate prices remain nearly 70% higher year-to-date on the back of a global effort to reduce carbon emissions, while gasoline prices are at all-time highs. To match the soaring trend in the industry, Beijing called for an increase in output from lithium smelters and miners to relieve the rally that saw prices reach record-highs of 497,500 in March.

Lithium - 2022 Data - 2017-2021 Historical - 2023 Forecast - Price - Quote - Chart

Lithium carbonate price in China rose to a record-high 500,500 yuan/tonne in September, soaring 80% year-to-date as surging demand coincided with lower supply. Data from the the Shanghai Metals Markets pointed to a 108% surge in carbonate imports in China, as the rebound in economic activity...
tradingeconomics.com tradingeconomics.com
Click to expand...
 
Today's news of the 8% investment in Vulcan Energy (VUL) by European carmaker, Stellantis has fired up interest in lithium once more. It'll be interesting to see if this demand continues. Have we seen the bottom for lithium stocks?
 
peter2 said:
Today's news of the 8% investment in Vulcan Energy (VUL) by European carmaker, Stellantis has fired up interest in lithium once more. It'll be interesting to see if this demand continues. Have we seen the bottom for lithium stocks?
Click to expand...
Possible, but I'm betting there's still a bit to go as they get held back by the rest of the market.
A couple of developments:
1. Musk highlighting the fact that EV manufacturers may need to become miners to overcome the high cost of lithium. Will likely spur investment from automakers, as has occurred in the rare earth space with MOUs.
2. Piedemont Lithium now looking for overseas lithium mines after its failure in the US. Likely part of a trend where we see consolidation in the sector as miners fail and are absorbed by others
3. US gov driving multinational commitments to EV targets and CO2 reductions.
 
share prices may fall, but lithium is rocksteady…the opportunity in price disconnects…lithium should be on your radar…

It was another rough day of trading for commodities on Thursday. But of all the sectors hit, lithium stocks once again bore the brunt of the sell-off.
The overall outlook doesn’t align with this dim view. The long-term demand for lithium and many other battery metals simply isn’t going away.
In fact, the outlook for combustion engine vehicles is what investors should really be worried about.
How that will pan out, and what it means for automakers, though, is unknown. After all, electric cars are easily the biggest disruption the automotive industry has had to face in a long time.
Because at the end of the day, opinions on demand aside, price is always going to be the leading indicator. And when it comes to lithium, that price isn’t budging...
 
.... "in a move that will boost interest in lithium from Australia and other regions, California will impose a flat tax on production of the key battery metal from the huge untapped Salton Sea.

California’s Democrat Party government and Governor, Gavin Newsom justify the tax as a way of paying for environmental remediation projects in the area east of Los Angeles.

Opponents say the government is trying to tax a gold goose before it has been born.

Governor Gavin Newsom approved the tax as part of a must-pass state budget on Thursday. The state’s legislature had signed off on the new tax during deliberations on Wednesday night.

The tax is structured as a flat-rate per tonne impost and will go into effect in January, 2023. It will be reviewed every year, and state officials have agreed to study potentially switching to a percentage-based tax.

California’s tax is aimed at plans to mine the huge lithium reserves in the Salton Sea region, east of Los Angles, an area heavily damaged in the past century by years of heavy pesticide use by farmers.

Funds generated from the tax are earmarked in part to cleanup of the area but as yet no mining projects are happening. There are a number of gepothermal power plants operating in the area.

The Salton Sea brine deposits are easier to process using a geothermal brine process more environmentally friendly than open-pit mines (as in Australia) and brine evaporation ponds (used in Chile and Argentina).

Two of the three lithium companies working around the Salton Sea have warned the tax will scare off investors and customers.

Both said they may leave the state for lithium-rich brine deposits in Utah or Arkansas.

The privately-held Controlled Thermal Resources Ltd said the tax would force it to miss deadlines to deliver lithium to General Motors Co by 2024 and Stellantis NV by 2025.

EnergySource Minerals LLC, also privately held, said it halted discussions with potential financiers and an automaker.
“Supporting a tax that ensures lithium imports from China are less expensive for auto manufacturers to secure will devastate this promising Californian industry before it has begun,” said Rod Colwell, Controlled Thermal’s CEO said in a statement.
Click to expand...

Energy Source, which owns one of the 11 geothermal plants around the Salton Sea, plans to produce lithium by April of 2024.

Berkshire Hathaway, which owns the other 10 geothermal plants under the subsidiary Cal Energy, plans to produce lithium on a mass scale by 2027.

The Salton Sea alone has the estimated potential to provide 40% of the lithium used by the world, which would make it the largest source in the world.

www.sharecafe.com.au

EU Keen to Drive ICE Vehicles off the Road - ShareCafe

EU countries this week okayed proposed laws to combat climate change including one requiring new cars to emit zero CO2 from 2035, making it impossible to sell internal-combustion engine cars from that date.
www.sharecafe.com.au www.sharecafe.com.au
 
and more pile-ons from Tesla; speaking at the Clean Energy Summit in Sydney, Robyn Denholm believes Australia’s greatest opportunity this century is to be a global leader in the battery supply chain, building on its resources of lithium and other minerals.

“I can’t think of a technology that is more important than lithium-ion batteries right now,” she said. “The world cannot build battery cells fast enough. It may be the rate-limiting actor for tackling climate change.”
Click to expand...
Ms Denholm said Tesla expected to need more than 3 terawatt/hours of batteries for its worldwide electric cars and battery storage fleet by 2030, which is triple the total industry output of 1 TWh today.

..
 
Lithium stocks up. PLL currently at 4.88%

Lithium stocks are among the biggest movers on the Australian sharemarket and in the materials sector.

Lake Resources in the S&P/ASX 200's top performer, up 10.5 per cent to $0.89, while Allkem roars 4 per cent to $11.72.

Core Lithium is up 2.6 per cent to $1.19 and Pilbara Minerals edges 1.6 per cent higher as it also announces that Dale Henderson will join the company as its new CEO, following the departure of Ken Brinsden at the end of July

The lithium companies are all outperforming the broader materials sector, which is up by 0.8 per cent.

Click to expand...
 
Good morning,
rcw1 holding AKE at the moment.

Kind regards
rcw1

Published New Corp today (30/08/22):

UBS reiterates its overweight recommendation for lithium miners as it boosts its lithium price forecasts after an in-depth bottom-up analysis of lithium supply.

After reviewing over 100 projects representing about 80 per cent of supply by 2025, the Swiss investment bank boosts its long term lithium prices by 10 to 38 per cent and also lifts its short-term prices by 20 to 70 per cent for 2023-26.

"We have revised spodumene prices up from US$800 to US$1,100 a tonnet, battery grade lithium carbonate up from US$13,000 to US$15,000 tonne and battery grade hydroxide prices up from US$14,500 to US$16,000 a tonne," say UBS analysts including Levi Spry.

They expect lithium demand to grow 8 times by 2030 and see supplies "struggling to keep up", with new supply seen as is higher cost and more technically demanding.

"We see supply growth coming from both brownfield expansions and new greenfield
projects but at higher cost and risk, underpinning our higher long term prices," the analysts say.

They retain a preference for producers over developers for their lower risk profile and leverage to current very high prices.

They prefer the miners that are currently producing – AKE, IGO, MIN, ALB, Ganfeng – versus the developers which are not exposed to current prices.
 
PLS the best producer atm and a local so no sovereign risk.

But agree overall with the report.
 
Lithium price hitting new highs. Rapidly increasing demand expected to create supply deficits and high prices into the foreseeable future.

But simply having lithium assets won't be enough. Too many companies are dipping their toes in by acquiring tenements but are not developing mines fast enough. The race is on to get the lithium out of the ground and into the market.

investorintel.com

Lithium demand is poised to create a supercycle of supply deficits and lasting high prices - InvestorNews

The past two years has seen lithium prices rise about ten times from US$7,000/t to US$70,000/t both for lithium hydroxide and carbonate. Meanwhile, the lithium spodumene price has enjoyed a similar 10 fold increase from US$500/t to US$5,000/t. This has been caused by EV sales booming, resulting...
investorintel.com investorintel.com

FfQ-vhfaEAMhlu-.jpg
 
greggles said:
Lithium price hitting new highs. Rapidly increasing demand expected to create supply deficits and high prices into the foreseeable future.

But simply having lithium assets won't be enough. Too many companies are dipping their toes in by acquiring tenements but are not developing mines fast enough. The race is on to get the lithium out of the ground and into the market.

investorintel.com

Lithium demand is poised to create a supercycle of supply deficits and lasting high prices - InvestorNews

The past two years has seen lithium prices rise about ten times from US$7,000/t to US$70,000/t both for lithium hydroxide and carbonate. Meanwhile, the lithium spodumene price has enjoyed a similar 10 fold increase from US$500/t to US$5,000/t. This has been caused by EV sales booming, resulting...
investorintel.com investorintel.com

View attachment 148149
Click to expand...
The other issue is that many lithium processors and battery makers are in China, which carries a political risk
 

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