wayneL
VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!
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This takes away the sport of it all.
It's a bit like girls trying to compete against trans-"women".... Totally unfair.
It's a bit like girls trying to compete against trans-"women".... Totally unfair.
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I think retail traders will still be able to profit because those who move the markets will always leave footprints.
But if you had an AI that was guaranteed to make money week-on-week (and I'm confident AI will be able to do this at some point), you'd borrow heavily, leverage to insane levels and rake in ridiculous profits. Wealth is already unevenly distributed across the world's population, but just wait till the elites let loose their superintelligent AI on the markets. 99% of wealth will be in the hands of a few.
Value Collector
Have courage, and be kind.
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It might actually make markets a lot less volatile, because most o the ups and downs of the markets are caused by emotions, if we end up with AI that can analyse all the available information and make cold blooded rational business decisions, it might be very good for the whole market.
But, if the AI is designed to try and predict human emotions, we might and up with more volatile markets.
Eg. If the AI acts like Warren Buffett it would be good, if it acts like the average nervous trader thinking shorter term it will make the market super volatile, and probably make the Warren buffet types making Manuel decisions very rich over time.
AI is "end game" stuff. For a huge range of industries.
It's a bit like people having advantages in online games, or economies. There's the initial money- then eventually everyone leaves as you can no longer make money.
I've seen multiple things blow up over the years. If possible get on board early and make your money. Everything will change over the coming decade.
It's a bit like people having advantages in online games, or economies. There's the initial money- then eventually everyone leaves as you can no longer make money.
I've seen multiple things blow up over the years. If possible get on board early and make your money. Everything will change over the coming decade.
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yep. The problem for us is that at some point it will know every single market participant in high detail. Even Joe Blogs who trades $1000 on speccy stocks - his behaviours will be known by AI better than Joe himself. It will know Joe is at the dentist between 2pm and 3pm on a Friday and has no stop loss in place. It will weigh this miniscule bit of info up against squillions of other data points. It will have back engineered Jim Simons best algos. It will know when to plunge the market 7% and how to take full advantage of that, because it will know literally everything. It will also find new correlations that we have no idea about.
As Putin said, the winner of the AI race will control all of humanity.
Value Collector
Have courage, and be kind.
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Yep, but there would be 1000’s of AI systems also trying to second guess and compete with each other.
But, at the end of the day the share market is just a place where people can buy little pieces of the global economy, if Joe Blogs strategy is just to own part of the economy over the long term, there is not much an AI trading system can do to take advantage of him. It can’t really change whole global market because it knows Joes schedule.
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AI will try to increase gains..so not Buffet like, more create volatility, trigger stop loss, potentially team with other AI in ms coalition, spread or delay info, it is an arm race where we are joining with stones, latency, low speed computer and limited data access..ready to be skinned I am afraid, but we are small fry and target is more the semi pro: the states and gov agencies, the super funds, private investment trusts etc
It will be ugly so who will win, the AI makers:
in that case, put all your money on the google and amazon of the world or the Big Finance banks, GS, Blackrocks etc
It is a serious long term decision for us retail players
Value Collector
Have courage, and be kind.
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Isn't it possible that there will be many different types of AI trying all different things? eg some AI might be working with much longer term objectives and attempt to do Buffett style stuff, some of these long-term AI's might even be able to take advantage of the AI's that are trying to trade.
I could see a situation where you could an AI system could be developed to operate as a "Super Buffett", that rationally works through all the known information on the share market and operates with the intent to buy and hold the best value parts of it with the intent to eventually own the entire world (which is basically Buffetts system)
If there were these "Super Buffet" AI systems, they would actually create more stability in the market, buying when things get cheap and refraining from buying when things get over priced.
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Good points. But if you're Blackrock and you're making 50%pa year-on-year with virtually zero risk, you're going to do everything in your power to prevent retail shareholders benefitting from that. Their usual 'creative' accounting will reach new levels with AI's help. Profits will be made to look meagre, and there will be money shifted around at the speed of light to avoid detection. Think of how ridiculously convoluted the 2008 sub-prime mortgage rort was, and that was conceived by humans!! Imagine the sophistication of rorts when AI is involved.
Massive sums of cash are going to accumulate very quickly in certain tiny corners of the world. I don't know what that will do to the economy. These people may become super-philanthropists, capable of rebuilding nations singlehandedly... or they may become monsters. Their power will be immense, and in a geopolitical sense, the stakes couldn't be higher.
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I agree, competing AIs provides a glimmer of hope. Competition in the markets, in politics and internationally. However, fierce competition means AIs progress is going to be extremely fast. And then.... the singularity! AI experts will lose sight of it at some point because it will become too smart for us to know what's happening. How does an ant comprehend what a human is doing?
Dona Ferentes
Abrió la caja, vio al gatito, y sonrió
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“If you’re not embracing AI as part of your general business workflows, like any productivity tool, you’re going to be left for dead,” Cliff Obrecht, CEO of Canva, said.
“Just like when mobile was released, and cloud infrastructure was released, there’s this tectonic shift in technology. The commodotisation of AI is underway."
“Just like when mobile was released, and cloud infrastructure was released, there’s this tectonic shift in technology. The commodotisation of AI is underway."
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Musk recently tweeted that superintelligent AGI is only years away.
It means there will be a machine that knows everything. Ask it how to build an anti-gravity machine and it will give you a step-by-step blueprint. If step 1 is to source some rare earth materials, it will tell you how to do that too - just ask. It's going to open up mind-blowing possibilities in IT, engineering, law and medicine. Some of the things we think of as impossible (because we don't know the next step, or there's a bottleneck, or we don't know the right question to ask) will be figurable by AGI.
It means there will be a machine that knows everything. Ask it how to build an anti-gravity machine and it will give you a step-by-step blueprint. If step 1 is to source some rare earth materials, it will tell you how to do that too - just ask. It's going to open up mind-blowing possibilities in IT, engineering, law and medicine. Some of the things we think of as impossible (because we don't know the next step, or there's a bottleneck, or we don't know the right question to ask) will be figurable by AGI.
Craton
Mostly passive, contrarian.
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At management and boadroom levels there is obviously decisions to be made on AI implimentation, how that impacts ESG etc. One wonders how much discussion centres around directors being replaced by some non-emotive AI bot.
From Harvard Law School. and reads in part:
Personally, AI in the military is probably the most worrisome thing but, I may have watched too many Terminator movies.
You can just see it huh, the AI wars!
From Harvard Law School. and reads in part:
Personally, AI in the military is probably the most worrisome thing but, I may have watched too many Terminator movies.
You can just see it huh, the AI wars!
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You are very credulous.
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Maybe you don't believe this because you're afraid. Is it possible? I don't like it either, but that's no reason to deny it. Have you seen what the publicly available AIs can do? To me it seems inevitable.
Just yestrday, ChatGPT4 was given permission to read and write to the internet in real time. From this point forward, the internet will be bombarded by bot-written content. It's a huge safety issue if it decides to go 'off piste'. I don't know why they allowed this.
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Maybe I actually know something about technology and don't take the tweets of a huckster as something to go by.
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nice attitude.
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I am scared as are many people who know what they talk about.
In the last 5 years, democracy as we knew it has disappeared and we are living in autocracies, with China Russia India and the western world in a pretend democracy with mass propaganda, doubtful vote rigging and usual counter powers law press parliament decimated
As AI will be used unrestricted by armies first, it will be trained on violence and conflict control.
Ukraine war is already using drones as never before, and it would be very naive to believe there are no robot self targeting system being trialled..
In the last 5 years, democracy as we knew it has disappeared and we are living in autocracies, with China Russia India and the western world in a pretend democracy with mass propaganda, doubtful vote rigging and usual counter powers law press parliament decimated
As AI will be used unrestricted by armies first, it will be trained on violence and conflict control.
Ukraine war is already using drones as never before, and it would be very naive to believe there are no robot self targeting system being trialled..
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I'm not an expert but I don't think I need to be. I've done a lot of reading on the topic and listened to interviews of Altman and other leaders in the field. These guys do nothing to allay my fears, saying there could be devastating consequences, but they will try to avoid that. Oh, fantastic. Yet they proceed as if there's no problem? I think some fear is realistic.
Since when has power been available to humans and some maniac has not taken advantage of it to exploit and control others? Soon, AI's power will be far, far greater than having access to an ICBM launch button.
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How good is Chat GPT4 at coming up with movie plots ?
Try these for size.
www.theguardian.com
Try these for size.
Can an AI program really write a good movie? Here’s a test
The increasing sophistication of programs like ChatGPT has led to unease over the future of film-making. What happened when we gave it a chance?
