The stock market is crashing....

[3 veiws of a secret]

If I was a pathological liar ,would you beleive that my shares had a sensational day on the market. :swear:

 

[mit]

WIth the DOW virtually flat overnight it will be interesting to see what today will bring in the Aussie market. The XJO has a floor of 4900 at the moment I wonder if it will hold today.

MIT

 

[michael_selway]

WIth the DOW virtually flat overnight it will be interesting to see what today will bring in the Aussie market. The XJO has a floor of 4900 at the moment I wonder if it will hold today.

MIT

amazing, it turned out to be exactly opposite to what you said for the All Ords

thx

MS

 

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

Stockmarket Crashing! a few obsevations anyone else agree?

Many analysts are saying that the materials boom has gone to far and they are only expecting single digit growth this year. They said this last december after the exceptional growth in 2005.They said that the year before as well!. What happened it boomed again until the May spike. It is self evident that traders woud take their profitts at this point and what profits they were. I have no doubt new highs in materials will be reached and purhasing stocks now at the end of the correction is sound.

I only trade in the material sector and my reason for this is simple.
History, Japan boomed in the late sixties. BHP AND RIO set up thier Hematite ore bodies in WA and we bought the Japanese cars and electronics.

We are know buying Chinese electronics and will soon buy thier cars. 1.5 billion Chinese are having washing machines, steel framed buildings using energy etc. It is ridiculous to think that this will end after 3 years and the resource sector is over extended. I firmly believe it is just the start with the Chinese investing in our Mangenite ore deposits and securing there supply's, BHP and RIO have the Hematite locked up.

I consider the last 3 months a correction that has extended with the various hypes around. We have already seen the lows and upward we will soon go, or the rest of the Chinese without washing machines will invade and get the ore themselves.

Take ZFX, they have no debt (holding bulk cash), have invested in exploration, Zinc reserves are at alltime lows and the Zinc price is on the way up. They will go past $13.00 again, as sure as Chinese cars will be on the OZ market in 4 years. History repeats itself and this time its China, not Japan with a billion more customers to boot.

Too all the pesimits take note that after every Stockmarket crash, THE INDICES HAVE REACHED ALL TIME HIGHS! (dot com excluded as that was a bubble sure to burst).

Happy trading and stick with the materials sector, I will be

 

[noirua]

A fall by the Dow Industrial of over 200 points today raises the crash question once again.

 

[nirama]

Do not be a sheep............HOLD HOLD HOLD

All is well....

 

[wayneL]

Do not be a sheep............HOLD HOLD HOLD

All is well....

 

[Broadway]

Every time australia has a bad day, the rest of the world just crumbles apart. I swear we are the centre of the financial universe lately!

 

[petervan]

For such a so called stockmarket crash commodities are holding up remarkably well.Me thinks a reource bounce after this correction.I live in hope..

 

[wayneL]

Every time australia has a bad day, the rest of the world just crumbles apart. I swear we are the centre of the financial universe lately!

The Yen is the centre of the financial universe ATM. OZ is in the same time zone so it appears we are leading.

The Yen is leading. (in inverse relationship of course... yen up, SM down)

 

[Uncle Festivus]

For such a so called stockmarket crash commodities are holding up remarkably well.Me thinks a reource bounce after this correction.I live in hope..

I think this one is the real deal comrades. This is the real correction. All the fence sitters not knowing what to do or hoping for the rebound are going to cut their losses or take their profits. History shows you don't get 2 bites at the apple.

Could be the first chink in the superannuation armour too. Be prepared for switches out of super into cash, forcing redemptions in the equity market.

The reports still to come out of the US this week will confirm the severity of this crash.

Market controls will be put into action (tick- already happening)

Banks have been signaling this correction for a few days now & will probably lead the crash.

 

[Sean K]

I think this one is the real deal comrades. This is the real correction. All the fence sitters not knowing what to do or hoping for the rebound are going to cut their losses or take their profits. History shows you don't get 2 bites at the apple.

Could be the first chink in the superannuation armour too. Be prepared for switches out of super into cash, forcing redemptions in the equity market.

The reports still to come out of the US this week will confirm the severity of this crash.

Market controls will be put into action (tick- already happening)

Banks have been signaling this correction for a few days now & will probably lead the crash.

I don't think so. This is part of the 'healthy correction we had to have'. Going back to 5400 ish is not a 'crash' it's just a pause IMO. A crash is 30% Uncle F. That would take us back to 4200. Not sure about that one.

 

[nizar]

I don't think so. This is part of the 'healthy correction we had to have'. Going back to 5400 ish is not a 'crash' it's just a pause IMO. A crash is 30% Uncle F. That would take us back to 4200. Not sure about that one.

Agree with Kennas.
We will find support at the 200dma, just like in mar05, oct05, may06.
No dramas.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

That's a pretty strong faith in a set of lines on a chart.

I'm not sure TA is going to be much help here. The fundamentals are changing. If you look deeper into the 'system' there are deep seated imbalances that a 'correction' is not going to correct. It's all about paying for risk, and the risk of the past years that has been discounted by easy liquidity is now having to be paid for, only now because of derivitiives and margin the risk is many more times the ability to pay for it.

It's a simple case of dominoes, once the first starts to fall the rest follow, willing or not.

Are you going to wait to see if your TA figures don't hold for a resumption of the bull?. Unless you have covered your long positions, you are exposing your bare ars* to the whim of the market if you get it wrong.

Just be prepared if it's not the same as 'normal' corrections, but a secular change in sentiment.

 

[noirua]

The fall in the USA is all about defaults and likely defaults in the property sector. This may, by the end of 2007, turn out to be a good thing for the Industrial Sector and bread-and-butter stocks, because interest rates will be reduced in the USA more quickly.

Watch Bernanke panic and lower rates to restore confidence.

The Aussie sector, the property market, has some parallels with the US and hopefully we will see rates in Australia down by 1% or so by the end of the year.

I agree with Uncle Festivus on the need to be in cash and the likely flight to cash.

 

[CanOz]

That's a pretty strong faith in a set of lines on a chart.

I'm not sure TA is going to be much help here. The fundamentals are changing. If you look deeper into the 'system' there are deep seated imbalances that a 'correction' is not going to correct. It's all about paying for risk, and the risk of the past years that has been discounted by easy liquidity is now having to be paid for, only now because of derivitiives and margin the risk is many more times the ability to pay for it.

It's a simple case of dominoes, once the first starts to fall the rest follow, willing or not.

Are you going to wait to see if your TA figures don't hold for a resumption of the bull?. Unless you have covered your long positions, you are exposing your bare ars* to the whim of the market if you get it wrong.

Just be prepared if it's not the same as 'normal' corrections, but a secular change in sentiment.

I agree with your bearish sentiment, but even bear markets have waves up. Thats what these guys are saying, there will be another bounce.

Its uncanny how the EWers have picked this, some are right on the point.

I'm very impressed.

Cheers,

 

[nizar]

Bernanke lowers rates ---> US dollar crashes ---> Gold rockets ---> Maybe gold the place to be?

 

[CanOz]

Bernanke lowers rates ---> US dollar crashes ---> Gold rockets ---> Maybe gold the place to be?

Watch gold taking a hammering short term as more carry trades unwind. Love to be trading futures right now. Agree though that it should come back as a flight to safety.

You shorting anything Nizar?

Cheers,

 

[nizar]

Watch gold taking a hammering short term as more carry trades unwind. Love to be trading futures right now. Agree though that it should come back as a flight to safety.

You shorting anything Nizar?

Cheers,

No but im being really tempted by CFD Indices.
Been kinda paper trading it for a while now and maybe its time 4 me to go to the next level.

 

[CanOz]

No but im being really tempted by CFD Indices.
Been kinda paper trading it for a while now and maybe its time 4 me to go to the next level.

Hmmm, wish i had the time to do that....this next wave down, it should be more complex?

Cheers,