The stock market is crashing....

[nizar]

The dead cat was 5000 back to 5100, now correction, consolidation. PEs must be looking very good now. No company downdgrades that I have seen. Should be all record reports again this year.

Agree

Actually OXR earnings was upgraded about 2 weeks ago and theres also been a few outperform calls since them, one from Goldmans and another from Citigroup

Zinc supplies are still running out, copper also very tight, fundamentals have not changed, and companies are still very profitable

 

[Sean K]

I wish I had time to create all those spreadsheets!

Unfortunately, I am just another follower, reliant on the media to give me the news that I want to hear so I keep going back to improve their ratings....

I'm not sure if a finance editor for the Fin would keep his job for very long though if they published out of date or incorrect data.

 

[bullmarket]

Hi kennas, nizar
re:

Should be all record reports again this year.

I'm not convinced that will be the case, but imo what is just as important if not more important than a company result is the company's stated outlook for the follwing 12 months.....remember markets are generally looking forward 6-12 months at any given time

re:

I'm not sure if a finance editor for the Fin would keep his job for very long though if they published out of date or incorrect data.

I'm not saying anybody's data is wrong. I'm just saying that I have seen different PER's quoted in the media and by 'analysts' in TV interviews etc and so it boils down to how each of them calculate and interpret their results. I haven't seen anyone of them disclose how they calculate their PER's and what data they use and so I decided to calculate my own using a spreadsheet and I posted it on this site a few months ago for anyone to play with if they liked

cheers

bullmarket

 

[professor_frink]

Frinky is switching into cash folks! Making my weekend as long as possible- the sun is out, I'm off to play golf after lunch

RSI on the xjo indicating we could have a bounce soon and I ain't gunna hold long option premium through this weekend, so to quote my favuorite(not!) television 'personality' gretel killeen- it's time to go..... professor.

Have a good weekend all

 

[bullmarket]

Looks like XJO is 'stuck' in the 4800 - 5000 range for the forseeable future

cheers

bullmarket

 

[nizar]

Bullmarket

Looks like we'll never know until we reach the "forseeable future"

 

[bullmarket]

Hi nizar

I suppose so, but back on the 19th April I posted :

I suppose a lot depends on how people differentiate a correction from a crash.

About 4 weeks ago I uploaded a spreadsheet that calculates the average PER for various market indexes. Back then the average prospective weighted PERs (by mkt cap) for the ASX50 to ASX300 indexes were all in the ~16-17 range. I haven't updated the spreadsheet with the latest prices but obviously the PERs would be a little higher now.

There used to be a ball park rule of thumb that said a fair PER was 20 minus the inflation rate. With inflation at ~3% then I see a fair market PER as ~17 atm.

Blind Freddy can see that overall our market is not cheap but I don't see it as grossly expensive either. Therefore I'm not expecting a 'crash' atm, especially based on company fundamentals. But having said that, looking at the weekly XJO chart I think it would only take a reasonably credible hint from somewhere that inflation was looming (due to high oil prices or whatever) and that will take a lot of steam out of the market.

Imo, a retrace back to the ~4800 (~9% drop) January support levels would be a 'healthy correction' and not a crash if looking at the overall long term scheme of things of the bull market that started after the '87 crash (now '87 was a crash )

A continued fall below 4800 then obviously all bets are off as that would be a pretty strong signal for me that we are starting a much more likely sustainable bear market.

Finally, all of the above should be taken in context depending on what time frames you invest/trade in.

Anyway, just food for thought

In subsequent posts in other threads I said that I felt XJO will settle in the 4800 - 5000 range and I still think XJO will remain there 'for a little while' yet

Below is the weekly XJO chart fwiw.

cheers

bullmarket

 

[NettAssets]

"The stock market is crashing"
Sure looks like it today
Glad I loosend off a couple of my stop losses last night in case we take a bit of an early swing cause it sure wont last long
John

 

[TraderPro]

"The stock market is crashing"
Sure looks like it today
Glad I loosend off a couple of my stop losses last night in case we take a bit of an early swing cause it sure wont last long
John

Was the "loosening" a part of your trading plan or just a "gut" feeling?

Good Luck!

 

[NettAssets]

Was the "loosening" a part of your trading plan or just a "gut" feeling?

Good Luck!

Part of my Trading Plan
although definitely a discretionary part.
I check the OS markets before our pre-open and if I have anything that is on my trailing stop list with a fairly tight stop and it looks like the market will head straight up I back out a bit so I don't get caught out early. My feeling is the low to midcaps I trade tend to take a while to catch up with the market sentiment.
John

 

[bullmarket]

XPJ is doing its best trying to retest the previous all time high....and many LPT's go ex-distribution on Monday

cheers

bullmarket

 

[wavepicker]

DJI looking to be on skaky ground at present,
looking for a possible resumption in the downtrend in world indices next week

 

[Sean K]

I'm feeling nervous about the Fed announcement tonight. I'm expecting the 25 basis point rise, but I'm worried Mr B is going to say that there could be another interest rate rise in August. This will send a shiver through the market, especially PMs. Gold will be smashed.

What's your guess?

 

[wayneL]

I'm feeling nervous about the Fed announcement tonight. I'm expecting the 25 basis point rise, but I'm worried Mr B is going to say that there could be another interest rate rise in August. This will send a shiver through the market, especially PMs. Gold will be smashed.

What's your guess?

There is even speculation of a .5% hike.

Now THAT would be interesting! Let's see if they have the cojones to do it!

 

[kgee]

With all the arm waving going on a .5% hike would'nt surprise me at all

 

[Smurf1976]

With Japan, a major source of global cheap money, "removing excess liquidity" the trend is very much towards tightening so it's hard to see why ANY financial asset class (apart from cash) would boom.

 

[GreatPig]

So what time exactly does the world end?

GP

 

[wayneL]

So what time exactly does the world end?

GP

At 2:15PM New York time, it's all over :

 

[GreatPig]

Obviously no one's told the Poms. The FTSE is up 1.2% at the moment.

GP

 

[Bobby]

As for me _____ going long for tomorrow

Bob.