WHC - Whitehaven Coal

[finicky]

NIce to see Doug, but boy has he aged. I have a theory based on observation that we don't age in a smooth line trajectory but rather travel along a plateau then suddenly drop to a lower plateau and so on in a series of stages of ageing.
Of most interest to me is his expressed interest in coal at 32.49

Held
Holding

 

[wayneL]

NIce to see Doug, but boy has he aged. I have a theory based on observation that we don't age in a smooth line trajectory but rather travel along a plateau then suddenly drop to a lower plateau and so on in a series of stages of ageing.
Of most interest to me is his expressed interest in coal at 32.49

Held
Holding

Cortisol, far more destructive to the human organism than coal emissions.

Burn coal, stay warm, have consistent electricity supply, make steel and s*** like that, be happy.... and stay young.

(I may be speaking through my book )

 

[finicky]

be happy.... and stay young.

Oh, ok

 

[houtman]

I have a theory based on observation that we don't age in a smooth line trajectory but rather travel along a plateau then suddenly drop to a lower plateau and so on in a series of stages of ageing.

Good theory.

The strange reason why your body ages most rapidly between 44 and 60—and how to combat it

Aging can hit you like a wave, according to a new study.

finance.yahoo.com

 

[eskys]

WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED​

ASX: WHCShare: Energy, Energy


Last Price (AUD) $6.460
Today's Change Up $0.350 (5.73%)

 

[rcw1]

Good morning
What are analyst saying about WHC?

Whitehaven raised to Buy; $7.60 target: Citi

Not holding
Have traded

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[finicky]

Wow, just noticed that, if I count the dividend, I'm actually ahead of my average cost for WHC. Just thought you should know.
Held and Hodling.

 

[houtman]

A solid 1/4ly from WHC. A few snippets -

- A solid quarter of production and sales – all mines delivering as planned or better
- Unit costs are tracking at bottom end of guidance.
-Cost out initiatives and productivity improvements continued in Q1 FY25

Reads well and seem to be bedding down the ex BHP assets.

India is expected to be the future for sea-borne met coal demand.

 

[finicky]

^^^

Just to restate that summary from Market Matters

• Whitehaven Coal (WHC) +4.98 rallied on quarterly production numbers that showed improvement, particularly at Narrabri while their new QLD operations are performing as expected. Costs are tracking at the lower end of guidance and the $US1.08bn from the 30% sell-down of Blackwater should land their bank account in Q3.

 

[finicky]

Market Matters afternoon report.
From Bloomberg
Whitehaven the S&P/ASX 200 winner today

Also:
Whitehaven Coal (WHC) +3.71% rallied as Citi raised its price target to $8.00 from $7.60 after a good quarterly last week, while Goldmans upgraded to Buy & $7.90 PT – we flagged WHC as a trade this morning.
And:

• Whitehaven Raised to Positive at Evans & Partners Pty Ltd

Held
Holding

 

[qldfrog]

Market Matters afternoon report.
From Bloomberg
Whitehaven the S&P/ASX 200 winner today

Also:
Whitehaven Coal (WHC) +3.71% rallied as Citi raised its price target to $8.00 from $7.60 after a good quarterly last week, while Goldmans upgraded to Buy & $7.90 PT – we flagged WHC as a trade this morning.
And:

• Whitehaven Raised to Positive at Evans & Partners Pty Ltd

Held
Holding

View attachment 186754

I hold but am not worried: citi raising proce target..should i sell quick?

 

[finicky]

Market Matters morning report: bullish NHC, Peabody Energy Group (BTU US), WHC medium term, neutral YAL
WHC and NHC Held
Holding

Are coal stocks the best way to play AI’s initial huge energy demand?​

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is being embraced as the future of mankind. Still, little is mentioned about the vast energy consumption required to drive this new phenomenon as we strive to have a cleaner planet—it’s arguably a contradiction. The “big tech” companies have recently focused on nuclear power to satisfy their massive increasing demand for energy, which will grow exponentially over the coming years; this has triggered a round of frantic deal-making as companies battle for uninterrupted supplies. Nuclear power has emerged as a favoured option.

• Bill Gates of Microsoft fame, for example, is championing nuclear energy as a solution to reaching the world’s net zero climate targets and a way to meet Silicon Valley’s prodigious electricity needs as companies develop ever more complex AI tools.

We agree with Gates that nuclear is one, if not the best answer to this looming issue, but there’s likely to be an energy hole that requires plugging in the meantime, and coal could serve the function, albeit not in an environmentally friendly manner – a factor people are discounting in the pursuit of AI in the first place. We cannot always have our cake and eat it. Since COVID oil and uranium stocks have surged higher with coal, the standout laggard, we believe this relative underperformance will be addressed.
Just like the world has reined in its adoption of EVs, we believe that if the lights start fading, all of coal’s sins will be forgotten in a heartbeat; yesterday saw Porsche become the latest car manufacturer to back off its transition to full electric. We believe it’s a matter of when, not if, that coal stocks enjoy a resurgence.
MM is bullish on coal stocks

For coal stocks to improve, the commodity needs to recover from its sharp decline over the last few years—not as bad as lithium, but another example of commodities being cyclical markets. If /when China rekindles economic growth in its subdued economy, the coal price should, in theory, come back to life as demand lifts.

• We can see thermal coal trading back to its ~$US200 average of the last few years, a move that would be very bullish for coal stocks.

MM is bullish on coal prices medium-term

Whitehaven Coal (WHC) $6.92​

WHC transitioned its business after buying Daunia and Blackwater last year for $3.2bn, transforming it from a NSW thermal coal producer into a company that will generate most of its revenue by selling Queensland coking/met coal to steel makers. However, the purchase ended WHC’s tremendous “cash cow” or dividend stream of recent years, at least for now i.e. WHC will pay a total 20c fully franked final dividend in 2024, compared to 74c in 2023.

• We are very bullish on WHC over the years ahead, but it will take time and a higher coal price before the dividends flow again.
• Markets are looking for WHC to yield around 3% over the next few years, but the coal price is the huge variable here, with WHC ready to benefit from any improvement in demand.

We are initially targeting a test of $8.50-9 by WHC, a very bullish call—
MM is long and bullish WHC medium-term

 

[finicky]

Whitehaven up 4%. Could be preparing to break out of its two month downtrend resistance here. I'll opine yeah, going to happen, it's just been consolidating its prior advance. Too cheap.

Held
Not Adding. Looking at NHC

DAILY

 

[divs4ever]

i hold both WHC and NHC ( both are 100% profits running )

i still glance at the other smaller ( than BHP and S32 ) coal producers they are often just one 'ecological protest ' away from compelling value

HOWEVER i do not expect to live another 20 years , so younger investors might be less attracted to coal investments

 

[finicky]

Coal insights - met and thermal

 

[rcw1]

Good evening

Some positive movement at the station ...

Hourly Chart

3 minute chart

Not holding
Have traded

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[finicky]

Market Matters suggesting today a patient approach to its WHC investment. This essay on WHC followed a general essay on the coal market where there was an expectation voiced that Chinese demand and possible unmet demand from A1 is more likely to affect coal prices than a revitalized and deregulated U.S economy under Trump.
But I've formed a view myself that Market Matters underestimates Trump - they were of the view that Harris was more likely to win the POTUS election for one thing and seemed to regard this outcome benignly?

Also Greg Canavan of Fat Tail Investment Advisory yesterday recommended a first buy of Yancoal (YAL) while already holding long term positions in WHC and NHC.

I'm Holding WHC and NHC
No intention currently of buying YAL because of the heavy Chinese CCP ownership

Whitehaven Coal Ltd (WHC) $6.28

WHC has effectively been getting ‘longer coal’ as the market has been under pressure and this has transformed it from a cash cow into a company where free cash flow and dividends have come under significant pressure, and the stock has performed accordingly. While the coal price is hard to forecast, we do note that analysts are almost universally bearish on their assumptions, and we see scope for prices to top low expectations. More importantly, it’s the expected change in free-cash flow over the coming year as capex subsides that should bring back some interest towards WHC. WHC transformed itself last year to primarily a coking coal miner when it acquired Daunia and Blackwater, and management has been transparent that the next few years will be focused on bedding down the acquisitions instead of further M&A. As of September 30, net debt was A$1.2bn with US$1.08bn of proceeds from the Blackwater selldown expected in Q3 FY25. They do have some contingent/variable payments to BHP starting in July, but these are significantly lower than they could have been. We are fans of the move by WHC, but it’s necessitated some patience towards our position. In the coming years, the dividends should return, especially if the coal price turns. Being long coal via Whitehaven has tested our patience, with dividends offsetting the share price decline, but the correlation between WHC and the fossil fuel is strong, and if/when coal turns, WHC should follow in earnest. We are looking for WHC to test $9 in the next 1-2 years. MM is long WHC in our Active Growth Portfolio

 

[divs4ever]

i hold both WHC and NHC ( both 'free-carried' )

and yes patience ( and the willingness to buy when cheap ) has really paid off

YAL ? ahhh , maybe , could be , but am in no rush

i also hold TER which is currently testing my patience

i also read somewhere that China has increased it's coal production and consumption

my theoretical price average for NHC is $2.20 ( ish )

and for WHC it is $1.40 ( ish )

 

[finicky]

Held
Holding

From Market Matters today:

Whitehaven Coal (WHC) $6.05

WHC flat today, traded strongly out of the gates but settled later in the session as the coal producer reported good December quarter production and sales volumes. Production in line with September quarter at 9.7mt. Total equity coal sales rose to 7.8mt, up 22% from the prior quarter. Production and coal sales expected to reach the upper half of FY25 guidance range. Costs trending toward the lower end of FY25 guidance. Net debt stood at A$1.0bn at quarter-end, with US$1.08bn due from the sale of its Blackwater asset expected in April. WHC remains on track to deliver a stellar full-year result, though we are conscious of noise in the energy space affecting the coal price. The business is well capitalised, particularly post-April, with flexibility to return capital to shareholders via buybacks or dividends. We hold WHC in the Active Growth portfolio

WHC​ MM is long and bullish WHC

 

[finicky]

Put a ruler across the peaks of price over the last 4 months and contrast that line with today's action. I rest my case.

Held
Holding, tempted to add

DAILY