Australian Politics General...

[sptrawler]

New Zealanders re locating here, in record numbers.

Why New Zealanders are migrating to Australia in record numbers

The government may not be able to reverse the trend, which one Kiwi describes as abandoning “a sinking boat”.

www.theage.com.au

“Ditch the winter chill” and “expand your horizons in sunny South East Queensland!” reads one newspaper advert, luring New Zealand’s healthcare workers towards a new life in Australia. “Warmer days and higher pays”, enthused another, last year, from the Australian state’s police service. Kiwis who chose “policing in paradise” could look forward to 300 days of annual sunshine and a $20,000 relocation bonus, it declared.

For many New Zealanders, that is an easy sell. They are leaving their country in record numbers. Almost 129,000 residents emigrated last year – 40 per cent above the pre-pandemic average for this century. It is not a case of last in, first out. Most of those leaving were New Zealanders, rather than immigrants returning home, creating a net loss of 47,000 citizens.

Emigration ebbs and flows: the last spike occurred in 2012, near the end of the financial crisis. As the pandemic raged, many expats returned to hunker behind closed borders, but the outflow quickly resumed. Recently, New Zealand has been in a rut. The economy is in recession and unemployment has risen. Outgoing Kiwis grumble about costly housing and a crime surge.

Unlike most, they have an alternative when times get tough: they are free to live and work in Australia, and vice versa. Almost 15 per cent of them are now based “across the ditch”.
It is not just that Australia’s economy has weathered the cost-of-living crisis better. The income gap between the pair has been growing for decades. Adjusted for purchasing power, Australia’s per person GDP is about a third higher than New Zealand’s. Its pensions are more generous, and its centre-left Labor government has made it easier for Kiwis to get passports and benefits

 

[mullokintyre]

So we have an election on May 5th.
This is depressing.
We are going to be flooded by bull**** election ads for a month.
And at the end of it all, we will still have a self centered bunch of pollies with citizens needs well down on their list of important things.
Mick

 

[Knobby22]

So we have an election on May 5th.
This is depressing.
We are going to be flooded by bull**** election ads for a month.
And at the end of it all, we will still have a self centered bunch of pollies with citizens needs well down on their list of important things.
Mick

Looking forward in particular to more of the Trumpet of Patriot Adds.
A lion bowing a trumpet....really?

 

[Smurf1976]

Australians have no reason, other than party loyalty, to think one side or the other has a convincing answer to the nation’s challenges. Voters deserve better. The leader who is bold enough to set out a better vision for this country will be the leader who deserves victory, but neither will meet that test if they merely play it safe.

At the macro level, avoiding referring to any specific issue, if we want good outcomes then we need to get back to numbers.

Put in charge and base policy around those who measure and calculate plus those who implement. Move away from the "wordy" people who talk a lot but who never have precise answers.

That's what it comes down to. We're making decisions based on theory, ideology and untested beliefs versus proper measurement, calculation and scenario analysis.

It's the equivalent of randomly buying shares based on the company name sounding good or reasoning that a $10 stock ought be better than a $5 stock "just because". As an investor you'll do far better either with a proper back tested trading plan or with fundamental research into the companies or at least sector they're involved with. You'll do a lot better by measuring and calculating than you will by following unproven theories and ideology.

Using healthcare as an example, well the best qualified person to make decisions about how to treat a patient in hospital is a doctor or surgeon as relevant to the situation. Next best is a paramedic. Next step away is a nurse.

If none of those are available well anyone else with at least some sort of medical training comes next - eg a veterinarian or someone who has a First Aid certificate has at least some chance of knowing something useful, albeit inadequate.

What you really don't want is someone with a purely wordy non-medical background making decisions.

Trouble is there's an awful lot of situations where that's exactly what's occurring, people with no relevant qualifications or even something remotely close are indeed making important decisions about all manner of things.

The home insulation scheme 16 or so years ago was a great example of that. There's a lot of technically competent people any of whom could've got it right but unfortunately they're not the people who formulated the policy. That says it all and the end result is 4 workers dead and over 200 house fires, none of which needed to occur.

 

[IFocus]

Unfortunately I don't see the other side offering any better ideas, it certainly is a sad state of affairs, when we appear to have a parliament full of career politicians, that have absolutely no clue how to build our economy.

TBH politics being what it is the mob who do the least damage are the ones to vote for. If you want a serious trade war with China Dutton is your man

 

[sptrawler]

TBH politics being what it is the mob who do the least damage are the ones to vote for. If you want a serious trade war with China Dutton is your man

I think we will get that whoever is in, China has screwed us over during Albo's tenure also, the thing with China they aren't sentimental they just get on with China's business model.

I just don't see Dutton offering anything that makes them an obvious choice over Albo's crew, meanwhile it will be obvious one way or another if Labor are doing a good or bad job, by the time the next election is due.

So IMO there isn't enough reason to change at this point in time, there isn't anything to be gained, both are fairly beige.

 

[JohnDe]

TBH politics being what it is the mob who do the least damage are the ones to vote for. If you want a serious trade war with China Dutton is your man

Well said, that is something no nation should fear - cower to a bully.

China is a great nation and could be one that leads by example, but instead its leadership is greedy for domination.

 

[SirRumpole]

Well said, that is something no nation should fear - cower to a bully.

China is a great nation and could be one that leads by example, but instead its leadership is greedy for domination.

They wouldn't be alone in that.

 

[sptrawler]

They wouldn't be alone in that.

Yes most Countries, when they become the dominant force, try to use it to their advantage.
That's been going on since history began.

 

[JohnDe]

Yes most Countries, when they become the dominant force, try to use it to their advantage.
That's been going on since history began.

Don’t confuse the ideas and efforts between what recently was and what is threatening to happen.

20th century democracy helped free countries from poverty and oppression. 21st century socialism is threatening the freedom we have become accustomed to.

"Dominant" (as in, commanding, controlling, or prevailing):This word describes something that has the most power or influence, or is the most important.

• "Dominat" (as in, a period in Roman history): The "Dominat" (Latin: dominatus, "domination") was a form of government in Ancient Rome that succeeded the Principate and was established by Emperor Diocletian (284-305 AD).

Domination" refers to having control or power over someone or something, often in an unpleasant or oppressive way, or the state of being the most important or common feature of something.

• General Meaning:
  "Domination" signifies supremacy, mastery, or ruling power, implying a situation where one entity exerts significant control over another

 

[sptrawler]

Don’t confuse the ideas and efforts between what recently was and what is threatening to happen.

20th century democracy helped free countries from poverty and oppression. 21st century socialism is threatening the freedom we have become accustomed to.

You're starting to sound religious.

 

[JohnDe]

You're starting to sound religious.

No offence intended but I think you have a misconception of religion. I did do religious studies in high school, and often come across opinions like yours. It tends to be used as a tool of blame or to shame because it appears easy to end a discussion.
Religion, it’s fine you have an opinion, but don’t overstep your knowledge.

Nothing I wrote in the my previous post was religious, not remotely religious and not even an inkling of religion.

 

[IFocus]

192K views · 3.6K reactions | When Australian politicians adopt the practices and policies of US party politics, they overlook and undermine what it is to be Australian. #auspol #lyne | By Digby Wilson - Candidate for Lyne | Facebook

When Australian politicians adopt the practices and policies of US party politics, they overlook and undermine what it is to be Australian. #auspol #lyne

www.facebook.com

 

[wayneL]

This is an actual sitting member of Parliament. Mental illness is mainstream.

 

[moXJO]

This is an actual sitting member of Parliament. Mental illness is mainstream.

Dear God, just send the flood and don’t bother with an ark this time.

 

[JohnDe]

Australia is one of the last remaining democracy's to continue iwht the two party system, most likely due to our compulsory voting system. But this has been changing over the last few elections, and this one coming will most likely show more independents enter our parliament. The question doing the rounds is which party will lose the most from this?

The odds are that Dutton will fall short of the 22-seat target he needs to form a majority government. Win or lose, however, 2025 is shaping up to be a strategic triumph, re-establishing a new Liberal heartland among the people Labor forgot.​

New Liberal heartland could still emerge in seats that Labor forgot

Anthony Albanese’s decision to launch his campaign in the Opposition Leader’s suburban Brisbane seat was hailed as a “bold opening salvo” by Guardian Australia.

More objective observers familiar with the Prime Minister’s character might describe it as hollow chest-thumping from a leader inclined to be too cute by half.

Malcolm Fraser wouldn’t have given a second glance at Gough Whitlam’s western Sydney seat of Werriwa a half-century ago.

The seat was still off-limits for the Liberal Party in 2013. Tony Abbott worked hard to win the neighbouring seat of Lindsay but knew better than to waste his time on Laurie Ferguson’s patch. Yet Werriwa was where Peter Dutton spent much of day three of the campaign, standing alongside Sam Kayal, the Arabic-speaking son of Lebanese migrants, who is representing the Liberals for the second time.

Labor’s Anne Stanley won comfortably three years ago, increasing her margin to 11.6 per cent. This time, however, she’s in strife. In the great inversion of Australian politics that began under John Howard, Werriwa’s moment has come.

The loss of six blue-ribbon seats to the teals in 2022 was a reminder that the inversion works both ways. Robert Menzies’ former seat of Kooyong was once the kind of safe seat ambitious young Liberals would fight with bare knuckles to win. Even if the Liberals win the seat back from the EQ-challenged Monique Ryan in May, the words safe and Kooyong are unlikely to appear in the same sentence any time soon.

The big reversals in Labor’s class war began with Howard’s landslide in 1996, with wins in seats such as Lindsay, Hughes and Lowe in western Sydney and McEwen and McMillan in Victoria.

Boundary changes have muddied the waters, and fortunes have ebbed and flowed, but the long-term trend is unmistakeable. In 2013, David Coleman won the western Sydney seat of Banks for the Liberals for the first time in the Abbott landslide. He set up his electorate office a street away from the Revesby Workers Club with its giant hammer and sickle embedded in the wall. This time, the best Sportsbet will offer on Coleman is $1.05.

The same parsimonious odds apply to Melissa McIntosh in Lindsay. In the space of two terms, McIntosh has turned a once-bellwether seat into an impregnable Liberal stronghold.

Punters with an appetite for risk will find richer pickings in Bradfield on Sydney’s middle north shore, where Liberal frontbencher Paul Fletcher is hanging up his spurs. Fletcher retained his seat in the Abbott landslide with a margin of 30.8 per cent. Last time, he was lucky to hang on after a determined challenge from the political wing of the renewable energy industry, or teals as they’re known for short. On Sunday, Sportsbet was offering $1.75 on the Liberals’ Gisele Kapterian and $1.95 on Nicolette Boele, a Killara High School graduate, mum of two and climate finance professional from teal central casting. As the NSW Office of Responsible Gambling is constantly reminding us: is this a bet you really want to place?

That Dutton has a chance of becoming prime minister three years after a cataclysmic defeat boils down to three things: shoddy government, disciplined opposition and a household recession.

The recession is hardly apparent at Harris Farm Markets in Willoughby’s High Street, in Bradfield, where the median family weekly income was $3150 in the 2021 census. Mortgage stress? Not much. In these old-money, rugger-bugger suburbs, 36 per cent own their homes outright. Fuel prices? Only 25 per cent drive to work and 52 per cent of Bradfield’s workforce worked from home at the time of the 2021 census. Carnes Hill Marketplace, 40 minutes’ drive west of the Sydney CBD, is a better place to assess the human cost of 14 mortgage rate rises and rampant energy prices.

The shopping trolleys emerging from Woolworths tell the story: heavy on bakery and value-pack sausages, light on salami and prosciutto. Almost no one is lingering for an iced chai latte at Gloria Jean’s.

Meanwhile, Kayal has been finding plenty of takers for his campaign leaflet. Across the first days of the campaign, a steady stream of locals stop to share their thoughts on Albanese and Labor. None could be described as remotely complimentary.

Why would they be? Werriwa is the kind of place people move to in the hope of getting a toehold in the housing market, to send their children to affordable non-government schools and find work in the surrounding industries, which these days are dominated by warehousing and logistics.

Fuel prices matter for business owners and workers, half of whom rely on a car or truck to get to work. Dutton’s promise to cut fuel excise by 25.4 per cent was precisely calibrated for seats such as this.

The deal breaker, however, is housing. In the past decade, families have moved to suburbs such as Austral, rezoned from rural to urban development in 2013, as part of the NSW government’s South West Growth Area.

Anthony Albanese on the campaign trail with Alicia Payne and Katy Gallagher. Picture: Jason Edwards

Austral didn’t exist for census purposes in 2016. By 2021, however, it had a population of 6847, mainly families, and an average age of 31. Fifty per cent had taken out mortgages, with average monthly repayments of $2535. After three years of Labor, the average monthly repayments would now be close to $4000. The median family weekly income, $2224 in 2024, has not caught up.

The number of cars in the driveway has barely changed, not for display but out of necessity; 65 per cent of homes had more than one. Since this is a thoroughly aspirational suburb, half of children go to non-government schools. These families have invested well. Austral will be prime real estate once the Western Sydney Airport precinct is completed.

In the meantime, they have to deal with the inconveniences that come with a new suburb: no public transport, the nearest children’s park is several kilometres away and the congestion on 15th Avenue means it can add 40 minutes to the daily commute.

It doesn’t take much imagination to understand why there’s a queue seven cars long for the bowsers at Costco in nearby Casula, where E10 cost $1.66 – 40c cheaper than the Edgecliff BP. Just 45km west of the Sydney CBD feels like a completely different planet.

The iron law at this election is that where competition for cheap fuel is most intense, Dutton’s stocks increase. At least a half-dozen NSW and Victorian seats, which the Coalition has never held before, are now in play.

The odds are that Dutton will fall short of the 22-seat target he needs to form a majority government. Win or lose, however, 2025 is shaping up to be a strategic triumph, re-establishing a new Liberal heartland among the people Labor forgot.

Nick Cater is a senior fellow at the Menzies Research Centre.

 

[mullokintyre]

This post could go into a number of threads, but its mostly politics so ended up here.
Fortunately for Albanese, he did not say how long it would take to get those batteries installed, but at the current rate, of 21 over three years, its going to take another 57 years to get the 400 completed.
Mick
From Evil Murdoch Press