CDA - Codan Limited

[finicky]

Codan hanging in there even on a not so tariffic day - get it? .. hawhaw ..
Reported H2 on 16 Feb last year and no signs of the cognoscenti moving to the exits yet.

 

[mullokintyre]

Codan hanging in there even on a not so tariffic day - get it? .. hawhaw ..
Reported H2 on 16 Feb last year and no signs of the cognoscenti moving to the exits yet.

View attachment 192501

The scary part is down the bottom right hand corner, fair value 11.09 .
Mick

 

[finicky]

fair value 11.09

Can't deny that, but look at all the other over valuation around. Indications in the upcoming H1 that there's growth happening could still see a kick?

 

[galumay]

The scary part is down the bottom right hand corner, fair value 11.09 .
Mick

Really just shows how idiotic people like Morningstar are. How could anyone calculate a fair value down to the exact cent.? Moronic.

My very conservative dirty DCF valuation range is $10-12, but I think the quality of the business gives a bit more margin of safety. I am not accumulating at current prices, but given my cost price varies from round $1to round $6 I am certainly not a seller either!!

 

[finicky]

@galumay I am able to confirm your $10 or so valuation with my own advanced technique.

 

[galumay]

Weird that my dodgy arse, back of the envelope, valuation should be similar to your highly sophisticated, professional and ADVANCED technique!

 

[finicky]

Early breakout above the trading range or false break?
Volume's not there. I'd call the daily MACD indicator encouraging though. I'm on the fence - more so with the H1 report impending

Held
Want to reduce to increase cash

DAILY

 

[finicky]

..and so it goes. Filled the gap and back in the range, but note the low volume. Still has a mini higher low, higher high.
I'm 'micro managing' my commentary on this I admit but I'm hanging my hat on a good H1 report in a week that could fuel a blow off. I can use that to reduce Codan and add to cash. As alluded to by the discussion here, it's all about sentiment now as the consensus is that it's over-valued on current metrics.

Held
Reduce

DAILY

 

[finicky]

According to market watch info Codan won't report until Friday 21 Feb, almost a week later than last year.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

..and so it goes. Filled the gap and back in the range, but note the low volume. Still has a mini higher low, higher high.
I'm 'micro managing' my commentary on this I admit but I'm hanging my hat on a good H1 report in a week that could fuel a blow off. I can use that to reduce Codan and add to cash. As alluded to by the discussion here, it's all about sentiment now as the consensus is that it's over-valued on current metrics.

Held
Reduce

DAILY
View attachment 192992

Do you reckon it's a pump and dump or a definitive move up. @finicky . I traded Codan some years ago between $8 and $14 and in between from memory and it used thrown some funny volume like that. Although the original owners would have been selling in those days.

I haven't followed them for a fair while now so am ignorant of the fundamentals.

gg

 

[galumay]

According to market watch info Codan won't report until Friday 21 Feb, almost a week later than last year.

Hopefully because its taking a week longer to count the extra profits!

 

[galumay]

Bit late to the party. @Assasin, that post was made 15 years ago!!

 

[Assasin]

Bit late to the party. @Assasin, that post was made 15 years ago!!

Yes very late, didn’t realize the date sorry. The message is still the same but I’ve removed it anyway.

 

[finicky]

Do you reckon it's a pump and dump or a definitive move up.

Neither has occurred to me @Garpal Gumnut. It's hard to see it going a lot further but I've said that before about CDA well before it topped.
The all data chart shows it previously peaked higher but the first momentum indicator is flashing a warning. Codan has had two previous crashes (2013 and 2021) so I don't want to be over exposed to it. I have a tendency to hold on for my irrational price rather than respond quickly to what the chart and fundamentals seem to be telling me.

MONTHLY All Data

 

[finicky]

According to market watch info Codan won't report until Friday 21 Feb,

Oh, just saw that today it reports. I am most uneasy, having taken no precautionary action toward an overpriced stock that is my biggest weighting. I guess this is how they felt at dawn in the landing barges as they approached the glowering beaches of Normandy. Or maybe Gary Cooper stepping onto the dirt street at High Noon - except this announcement should break around 9 or 10 a.m

 

[finicky]

EPS up 21%
Good but might not meet growth expectations?
Nice Communications segment order book increase 35% y/y
Africa metal detector sales picking up a little.

Held
Reducing

 

[galumay]

I think the result is solid. I dont like the debt, its got to the point that I wouldn't buy the business as a result of that one metric. The thing that offsets my concern somewhat is management's track record on capital allocation.

The development of the business has been very impressive over the last 10 years, and while I think the price has run well ahead of value, its not hard to see CDA growing into the price range if they continue to execute well.

 

[finicky]

managements

management's

 

[finicky]

Yep, down $1.28 at open

 

[finicky]

Massive recovery candle 40m into trading.

DAILY