Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Garpal Gumnut]

It's been a stunning bounce. Not a higher high or higher low in sight. Just straight back up...

Indeed it seems to be heading up. I thought we'd get a retracement yesterday and the market was closed before I was comfortable. This morning I put in a limit order for PMGOLD but it kept on going up so I just bought at market.

Them's the breaks.

FOMO rules for me !! If it goes to crap I'll think up another excuse to rationalise my disordered decisions !!

gg

 

[greggles]

It's been a stunning bounce. Not a higher high or higher low in sight. Just straight back up...

Gold bouncing back nicely but silver not doing as well and looking like it might be in for some bearish price action in the short term. Any gains have been met with strong and consistent selling. One step forward and then two steps back. Silver just can't get any traction. It's Friday so that means it's probably another silver sell off day on US markets.

 

[qldfrog]

Gold bouncing back nicely but silver not doing as well and looking like it might be in for some bearish price action in the short term. Any gains have been met with strong and consistent selling. One step forward and then two steps back. Silver just can't get any traction. It's Friday so that means it's probably another silver sell off day on US markets.

My SL triggered on my reentry silver indeed but reentry gold cruising

 

[qldfrog]

As noted by Mr Ducati

China finds nearly $83bn worth of gold reserves in Hunan, report says

Announcement comes as prices rally this year on global uncertainties

asia.nikkei.com

My question: is it true or just a way for China to cool the gold price and carry on buying on the market while inflating its official reserve?
Could it all be a psychological play?

 

[Sean K]

As noted by Mr Ducati

China finds nearly $83bn worth of gold reserves in Hunan, report says

Announcement comes as prices rally this year on global uncertainties

asia.nikkei.com

My question: is it true or just a way for China to cool the gold price and carry on buying on the market while inflating its official reserve?
Could it all be a psychological play?

I saw a report similar to this about a year ago, but the gold was in Tanzania.

 

[Sdajii]

As noted by Mr Ducati

China finds nearly $83bn worth of gold reserves in Hunan, report says

Announcement comes as prices rally this year on global uncertainties

asia.nikkei.com

My question: is it true or just a way for China to cool the gold price and carry on buying on the market while inflating its official reserve?
Could it all be a psychological play?

I'd happily bet on it being the latter.

 

[ducati916]

While gold’s 8% decline from $2,800/oz to $2,585/oz in the wake of Trump’s election has been unpleasant, it does nothing to change the underlying gold thesis.

The U.S. and indeed, the world reside in the largest credit bubble man has ever constructed: the total debt-to-GDP ratio in the U.S. is now 365%, which takes into account Medicare/Medicaid/Social Security.


At $2,585/oz gold backs Fed liabilities by only 9.4% less than the 12% backing at $35/oz in 1969.

Gold is cheap.

Gold will be used to finance the BTC Strategic Reserve Purchase:






They NEED the BTC Reserve because then Tether will buy UST paper, financing the deficits:



Which is just another bootstrap operation.

Which is being front-run by Mr Saylor and MSTR. LOL.



jog on
duc

 

[Sdajii]

I'm not saying this head and shoulders will play out, but just to throw the idea around, does anyone have any thoughts about it potentially happening? Right now we're seeing a very bearish tweezer top on the daily, which could complete a right shoulder. If it did play out it would be a significant drop given how hard gold has run.

 

[Sean K]

I'm not saying this head and shoulders will play out, but just to throw the idea around, does anyone have any thoughts about it potentially happening? Right now we're seeing a very bearish tweezer top on the daily, which could complete a right shoulder. If it did play out it would be a significant drop given how hard gold has run.

That looks like it could be set up for a bearish H&S, but needs some more time to play out.

 

[DaveTrade]

I'm not saying this head and shoulders will play out, but just to throw the idea around, does anyone have any thoughts about it potentially happening? Right now we're seeing a very bearish tweezer top on the daily, which could complete a right shoulder. If it did play out it would be a significant drop given how hard gold has run.

I'm still waiting to see what happens, we have a lower low and now I'm waiting to see if we get a lower high or a higher low. I said before that the down move looked strong and we could be in for a complex retrace but I will admit that this recent move up is also looking strong, so the market will show it's hand in the next couple of days. If it turns down on resistance and the down move looks weak then I'd be looking for a higher low to buy in.

 

[Student of Gann]

Down we go

 

[qldfrog]

Down we go

Yeap.made a small profit on recent reentry, more on gold than silver, with some silver at loss but i remain a gold bug so most will remain in the drawer/portfolio..

 

[qldfrog]

Yeap.made a small profit on recent reentry, more on gold than silver, with some silver at loss but i remain a gold bug so most will remain in the drawer/portfolio..

And yes the spec reentries are all selling...

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I'd agree with previous posters. Playing gold as a short term trade is fraught with loss of capital or small gains. While set and forget seems old fashioned it is what folk have been doing with gold for millennia.

My plan is to buy on weakness. I'm back in not far above the present price of $AUD 4042 but that may change for better or worse with changes in the POG and the USD/AUD. I make no apologies for selling on the Trump panic with BTC rising and taking a long term decent profit.

You learn.

gg

 

[greggles]

I don't see any near term catalysts for gold or silver other than possible geopolitical crises. I expect to see more selling and price weakness as we head towards the end of the year. In other words, a good buying opportunity for believers in precious metals.

2025 will likely see a resumption of the bull run after Trump takes office and we see lower interest rates and the eventual break over US$3,000/oz.

 

[Sdajii]

I don't see any near term catalysts for gold or silver other than possible geopolitical crises. I expect to see more selling and price weakness as we head towards the end of the year. In other words, a good buying opportunity for believers in precious metals.

2025 will likely see a resumption of the bull run after Trump takes office and we see lower interest rates and the eventual break over US$3,000/oz.

This is how I'm seeing it. Today I'm feeling better about my decision to sell all my gold and silver on the Trump election than I was 24 hours ago. I must admit, I was starting to doubt my decision. As long as the Democrats don't start all out WW3 before Trump actually takes power and ends the conflicts, gold will likely cool off as the major conflicts do. Those with TDS still seem to think Trump is the war monger, completely ignoring the fact that this was the narrative last time and he actually did indeed very quickly end multiple wars, deescalate the situation with North Korea everyone was terrified of back then, and was the first president in a very long time not to start any new wars. Then as soon as the Democrats got back in all these wars started up again. The whacky left may want Israel to be stomped and hate that Trump is pro Israel, and they may want the USA to keep sending hundreds of billions of dollars to Ukraine to secure their border and 'win' and unwinnable war (allowing it to go on indefinitely, continually laundering insane amounts of money through Ukraine, a situation now so obvious it's shameful not to see it), and they'll hate that Trump will help engineer a better outcome for Russia than they'd want (but they wouldn't be satisfied with anything other than Russia being handed its own butt on a plate for dinner, which could never happen anyway, so better for all if the conflict comes to an end without both sides being blown up for an indefinite number of further years)... all in all, regardless of which side of these conflicts you do or don't like, ending the conflicts will cool the gold price, which given the big run it has had, should be significant. I'm unlikely to buy back until Russia/Ukraine and the middle east have significantly cooled. I was holding on the expectation of the Democrats winning, which would have meant continually increasing conflict in these regions and more, and seeing them do their best to escalate things as much as possible before leaving power/in an attempt to keep it, makes that very obvious.

 

[Rosscoe62]

Disclosure - I’m recently out of gold stocks.

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[Student of Gann]

Gold could drop to Dec X where Low is indicated then have a significant rally according to my calculations.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I would agree with the bearish proposition.





We appear to be just under half way through a wave 3 of a 1-2-3 correction which will see us at the mid to high 2400’s once it completes. There are some nice support/resistance points at that level.

gg

 

[qldfrog]

Gold could drop to Dec X where Low is indicated then have a significant rally according to my calculations.

I am moving out of some of my paper gold and into stock indexes but plan to switch again as soon as the crazy markets slow down..
Time will tell
Just praying for no crazy nuke in Ukraine before