Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Student of Gann]

Crude Oil seems to be following a similar Curve to that of Gold so it will be interesting to observe the directional relationship between the two. Here is a Curve I posted on my website on Nov 16th calling Low which came out one day before the Forecast date followed by an advance into Nov 22nd where Top was indicated which has thus far pulled back from this point after an 8% move up

 

[ducati916]

Tariffs are deflationary for China and inflationary for the US. This was essentially the position in the 1930's with the US in China's position and Europe, particularly Germany in the current US position. That is to say the US was the manufacturing giant and creditor to the world and Germany was the degenerate debtor.

For China, gold is the key tied to commodities priced in CNY.

CNY oil + CNY gold means that if gold rises in CNY it no longer means CNY is collapsing v. gold and therefore USD. It means that gold buys more oil and commodities in China than in London and NYC

This in turn means that London and NYC gold vaults will empty until either USD gold prices rise to stem the flow, as we have been seeing occur or until London and NYC run out of gold, declare force majeure and gold spikes virtually overnight.

Said differently, CNY-denominated oil and commodities with net gold settlement means China will NOT need to massively devalue the CNY v. USD as some believe unless China wants to.

Trading Trump tariffs on China is not shorting CNY but rather buying gold.

This would also seemingly represent the way for China to escape what otherwise seems to be an intractable deflationary trap that does not require bazooka Chinese government stimulus.

The Chinese government has encouraged its citizens for the past 20+ years to buy gold, and Chinese citizens do hold significant gold. As the CNY falls against gold it will increase Chinese consumers’ commodity purchasing power and recapitalize their balance sheets.

This could help China avoid a deflationary collapse which the US suffered as the world’s factory and global creditor in the aforementioned Smoot Hawley (US tariff legislation) analog.

So while there may be a slight Ukraine premium in gold, that is a really minor issue.

Gold is front and centre in the economic war with China, which is just in its first innings. China has been preparing this strategy for decades and signalled their intentions as early as 2013.

The paper gold market cannot exist without control of the physical. The control of the physical is fast shifting East. When it breaks (paper market) it will not break in a controlled way, it will break suddenly and with huge volatility. Usually it breaks at the w/e so no-one really can position for it which just adds to the volatility.



USD dangerously high but;



Bond market seems fine;



Being propped up by Yellen?

Because that is a function of tariffs: a higher USD as USD are not being supplied in trade. All the more reason why China will force gold into the picture.

jog on
duc

 

[Student of Gann]

Nov 28 - 29th may see Minor counter trend Top then down till X

 

[qldfrog]

Nov 28 - 29th may see Minor counter trend Top then down till X

Mr @Student of Gann , sorry to ask but i am confused:
In post #15,638, you mention dec X already, here X again,
Did i miss an X on a graph somewhere?, or X as 10 in roman number
or X for Xmas? Or ?
Genuine question

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Mr @Student of Gann , sorry to ask but i am confused:
In post #15,638, you mention dec X already, here X again,
Did i miss an X on a graph somewhere?, or X as 10 in roman number
or X for Xmas? Or ?
Genuine question

Also Mr. SO Gann's website has been inactive for some time now, 1+ year(s)

gg

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

On the fundamentals affecting Gold we have

• Israel/Hizbolah/Lebanon
• Israel/Iran
• Israel/Gaza-Hamas
• Israel/West Bank
• Ukraine/Russia
• Russia/NATO
• Trump
• Trump/Tariffs
• China/Taiwan
• Decline Europe/UK
• US debt/interest rates/markets
• International markets
• India/China border issues
• N.Korea a long way last. A problem easily fixed with one button pressed.

All seem quite intractable except Ukraine/Russia. Trump may organise a ceasefire, may not. The Israel/Hizbolah deal won't last long imo. Have I left anything out?

gg

 

[houtman]

On the fundamentals affecting Gold we have

• Israel/Hizbolah/Lebanon
• Israel/Iran
• Israel/Gaza-Hamas
• Israel/West Bank
• Ukraine/Russia
• Russia/NATO
• Trump
• Trump/Tariffs
• China/Taiwan
• Decline Europe/UK
• US debt/interest rates/markets
• International markets
• India/China border issues
• N.Korea a long way last. A problem easily fixed with one button pressed.

All seem quite intractable except Ukraine/Russia. Trump may organise a ceasefire, may not. The Israel/Hizbolah deal won't last long imo. Have I left anything out?

gg

The BRICS+ , although reading the Kazan Declaration there is no mention of Gold.

It's about 130 statements, by the 20th statement they were discussing cats, so I'm presuming the smaller members may have worked out who would end up with all the Gold.

Also worth noting that Chinese citizens can't buy Crypto, but can buy Gold.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Thanks all, I'll add or delete as we go.

On the fundamentals affecting Gold we have

• Israel/Hizbolah/Lebanon
• Israel/Iran
• BRICS
• Crypto
• Chinese unable to access Crypto easily
• Israel/Gaza-Hamas
• Israel/West Bank
• Ukraine/Russia
• Russia/NATO
• Trump
• Trump/Tariffs
• China/Taiwan
• Decline Europe/UK
• US debt/interest rates/markets
• International markets
• India/China border issues
• N.Korea a long way last. A problem easily fixed with one button pressed.

 

[finicky]

TheDailyGold: Gold & Silver Remain Near Ground Floor....​

Good Morning!​

Gold broke out from a 13-year cup and handle pattern earlier this year to a new all-time high and advanced to $2800/oz.

Silver broke out from 4-year resistance and recently reached an 11-year high, touching $35/oz.

,However, something does not feel right.

The ongoing secular bull market in US Stocks and the emerging bubble in cryptocurrency have stolen its shine.

In nominal terms, Gold and Silver have made higher highs and are in a bull market.

But in real terms, Gold and Silver have barely moved off the ground floor.

Gold & Silver vs. 60/40 Portfolio​

Gold and Silver have yet to make progress against the conventional investment portfolio (the 60/40 portfolio) in the last 6 years.

They have yet to make a higher high since the secular bear market began at the end of 2011.

Gold ETFs as Percentage of All ETFs​

Near the end of 2011, the share of Gold ETFs against all ETF assets was 8%.

A few months ago, the share was barely 1%.

Gold Backing of the Monetary Base​

The last two secular bull markets in Gold peaked with Gold backing well over 100% of the monetary base.

The legal mandate under the Federal Reserve Act of 1913 was 40% backing.

Backing has increased from an all-time low of 7% a few years ago to 12.4% today. Reaching the 2008 peak of nearly 30% would put the Gold price at almost $6,500/oz.



From The Daily Gold newsletter

 

[Student of Gann]

Yes website was closed last year as I had other issues to focus on so hopefully now things are back to normal again.
Gold may start to move down from this point into X ( concealed date ) where Low is indicated. There are a few price levels to watch and as long as we remain below Nov 25th trend is down.

 

[qldfrog]

Yes website was closed last year as I had other issues to focus on so hopefully now things are back to normal again.
Gold may start to move down from this point into X ( concealed date ) where Low is indicated. There are a few price levels to watch and as long as we remain below Nov 25th trend is down.

Thanks Mr @Student of Gann

 

[Student of Gann]

There are two Gold Curves presented containing the same dates and price trajectory out of those points. Scenario No 1 shows price lower than Nov 14th Bottom with the Curve moving down and Scenario No 2 shows price above Nov 14th rallying higher. At this stage it is difficult to determine if 2541 Low will be breached or if we will setup into a higher high structure. Either way we are prepared for both scenarios and I am presently short into X where Low is indicated so as price moves into that point we should be able to determine the position of the market relative to Nov 14th Low and either way if we get a sharp move down and take it out or remain above it the next date should provide a long opportunity so I am just observing how price action moves into this point and managing my current position. There are a few price levels to monitor 2493 is 180 Deg from the Top so it is possible we could have a full price rotation into this point which will setup a New Low. The next two prices are conditional on time periods being 2508 and 2526 so these calculations are predicated on taking out the Nov 14th Low but the main consideration at present is the time Factor into X so irrespective of whether we have an extended move down from 2683 which is close to my entry point or we remain above Nov 14th Low there is still a range of around 4.5% between these points. The two Curves depicted below contain the same dates and the calculations are based on the repetition of past Cycles and Seasonal patterns within the Gold market. The tracing below shows all of the important reactions within the same time period including the percentage decline into Dec Lows and the advances which include time periods which are an important indication for change in trend. The percentage declines accompanied with the point decline can be used to measure the amplitude of the current swing in terms of time and price in relation to how the market acted under a similar set of conditions in the past. By studying previous Campaigns we can get a line on what to expect in the future and where we are located within the current price structure compared to previous Cycles.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Thanks SOG. 2493 fits in better with my 1-2-3 reversal setup in a post above. I'll watch the other price points.

gg

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

For some reason the POG gapped up this morning.



gg

 

[ducati916]

For some reason the POG gapped up this morning.

View attachment 188642

gg

Mr GG,

US markets are on Thanksgiving holiday. No paper gold being sold. LOL.

jog on
duc

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Mr GG,

US markets are on Thanksgiving holiday. No paper gold being sold. LOL.

jog on
duc

Gobble gobble

gg

 

[ducati916]

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) is covertly buying very large amounts of gold, adding upward pressure to a tense gold market.

An explosive cocktail of Western institutional investors and central banks in the East buying gold this year is making the gold price rise sharply. Interest rate cuts and geopolitical strain will sustain this bull market.

U.K. Gold Exports to China Are a Proxy for PBoC Buying​

Last July, I published an analysis proving how the Chinese central bank covertly buys gold in the London Bullion Market through bullion banks.

All “non-monetary” gold (privately owned metal) in China is traded over the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE)1. However, since the war in Ukraine began, there has been more supply in the Chinese market than sold through the SGE; the “surplus” reflects what the PBoC buys.

Gold exports from the U.K. are virtually all in the form of 400-ounce bars from the London Bullion Market. The retail market in the U.K. pales in comparison to the wholesale market that deals in “large bars” (400-ounce bars).

On the SGE, very few large bars are traded—the Chinese private sector prefers 1 Kg bars. My research shows that direct exports from the U.K. to China are, in fact, purchases by the PBoC. These purchases show up in cross-border trade statistics because the PBoC buys the gold from bullion banks that take care of shipping and insurance and thus have to deal with customs.

The above matches other evidence of the PBoC acquiring gold surreptitiously. By now, most gold investors are aware that the massive difference between what the World Gold Council (WGC) estimates central banks purchase in aggregate (based on field research) and what central banks in total report to the IMF is mainly attributable to the central bank of China.

​

Chart 1. Since mid-2022, actual central bank gold purchases have been dramatically higher than the IMF was willing to report.
This secret buying by central banks has exploded since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine early 2022 because, at that point, the West froze Russia’s dollar assets. Next to the PBoC, the Saudi Central Bank (SAMA) is known to be buying gold under the radar, albeit in smaller sizes.

More Proof the PBoC Buys Gold in London​

Elaborating on the above, the PBoC has made it overtly clear what they did in September: buy 60 tonnes of gold from bullion banks operating in the London Bullion Market.

As we saw private gold demand move from East to West halfway through 2024, driving the price up, the premium at the SGE took a nose dive into negative territory. But, surprisingly, Chinese customs data from September shows gross gold import accounted for 95 tonnes2.

According to the rules in the Chinese gold market, all bullion imports into the domestic markets must be sold through the SGE first. But if the SGE trades at a discount, why would any bank import gold to sell at a loss? Of course, they do not. When the SGE trades at a steep discount, gold imports into the domestic market are not bought by the private sector.

​

Chart 2. In green, large imports while private demand on the SGE is weak, indicated by a discount relative to the gold price in London. Imports shown are destined for the PBoC, not the private sector3.
What has happened is that 60 tonnes imported from the U.K. in September2 were swiftly handed over to the PBoC (exempt from rules) when they arrived in Beijing and carried to central bank vaults4.

​

Chart 3. Direct gold exports from the U.K. to China (PBoC purchases) are correlated to gold additions disclosed by the Chinese central bank. Although, the PBoC usually takes up to a year to publicly report its acquisitions and keeps about 65% of it hidden.

An Explosive Gold Market​

So, in September 2024, the PBoC covertly bought at least 60 tonnes in London—it could have bought gold in other places as well. Western investors were also driving up the gold price, as evidenced by swelling ETF holdings and net gold imports into London.

​

Chart 4. Gold imports to the U.K. rose sharply in 2024 for the first time in several years.
Early 2024, I wrote on the Chinese central bank driving gold up: “As the gold price will be making new all-time highs, I expect more Western investors to join buying gold, through ETFs and outright, as they will fear currency debasement just as the Chinese central bank. It will be a perfect storm for gold.”

This has become a reality as the price of gold is up 30% year-to-date. Meanwhile, the PBoC keeps the “pedal to the metal” (pun intended). In chart 2, we can see that in October, the SGE was trading at a discount while imports reached 95 tonnes, which was the same as in the prior month. I strongly suspect the PBoC was secretly buying gold in London again.

Large investors on both hemispheres are buying gold hand over fist. Ongoing wars and fiscal deficits aren’t waning, and the safe haven of choice for institutional money is gold.

We are in the midst of a perfect storm for gold that is to continue for years to come until debt levels and the global power distribution have rebalanced.

I will provide a computation of how much gold the PBoC truly owns in a forthcoming article. You may be surprised.

jog on
duc

 

[Sdajii]

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) is covertly buying very large amounts of gold, adding upward pressure to a tense gold market.

An explosive cocktail of Western institutional investors and central banks in the East buying gold this year is making the gold price rise sharply. Interest rate cuts and geopolitical strain will sustain this bull market.

U.K. Gold Exports to China Are a Proxy for PBoC Buying​

Last July, I published an analysis provinghow the Chinese central bank covertly buys gold in the London Bullion Market through bullion banks.

All “non-monetary” gold (privately owned metal) in China is traded over the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE)1. However, since the war in Ukraine began, there has been more supply in the Chinese market than sold through the SGE; the “surplus” reflects what the PBoC buys.

Gold exports from the U.K. are virtually all in the form of 400-ounce bars from the London Bullion Market. The retail market in the U.K. pales in comparison to the wholesale market that deals in “large bars” (400-ounce bars).

On the SGE, very few large bars are traded—the Chinese private sector prefers 1 Kg bars. My research shows that direct exports from the U.K. to China are, in fact, purchases by the PBoC. These purchases show up in cross-border trade statistics because the PBoC buys the gold from bullion banks that take care of shipping and insurance and thus have to deal with customs.

The above matches other evidence of the PBoC acquiring gold surreptitiously. By now, most gold investors are aware that the massive difference between what the World Gold Council (WGC) estimates central banks purchase in aggregate (based on field research) and what central banks in total report to the IMF is mainly attributable to the central bank of China.

View attachment 188672​

Chart 1. Since mid-2022, actual central bank gold purchases have been dramatically higher than the IMF was willing to report.
This secret buying by central banks has exploded since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine early 2022 because, at that point, the West froze Russia’s dollar assets. Next to the PBoC, the Saudi Central Bank (SAMA) is known to be buying gold under the radar, albeit in smaller sizes.

More Proof the PBoC Buys Gold in London​

Elaborating on the above, the PBoC has made it overtly clear what they did in September: buy 60 tonnes of gold from bullion banks operating in the London Bullion Market.

As we saw private gold demand move from East to West halfway through 2024, driving the price up, the premium at the SGE took a nose dive into negative territory. But, surprisingly, Chinese customs data from September shows gross gold import accounted for 95 tonnes2.

According to the rules in the Chinese gold market, all bullion imports into the domestic markets must be sold through the SGE first. But if the SGE trades at a discount, why would any bank import gold to sell at a loss? Of course, they do not. When the SGE trades at a steep discount, gold imports into the domestic market are not bought by the private sector.

View attachment 188673​

Chart 2. In green, large imports while private demand on the SGE is weak, indicated by a discount relative to the gold price in London. Imports shown are destined for the PBoC, not the private sector3.
What has happened is that 60 tonnes imported from the U.K. in September2 were swiftly handed over to the PBoC (exempt from rules) when they arrived in Beijing and carried to central bank vaults4.

View attachment 188674​

Chart 3. Direct gold exports from the U.K. to China (PBoC purchases) are correlated to gold additions disclosed by the Chinese central bank. Although, the PBoC usually takes up to a year to publicly report its acquisitions and keeps about 65% of it hidden.

An Explosive Gold Market​

So, in September 2024, the PBoC covertly bought at least 60 tonnes in London—it could have bought gold in other places as well. Western investors were also driving up the gold price, as evidenced by swelling ETF holdings and net gold imports into London.

View attachment 188675​

Chart 4. Gold imports to the U.K. rose sharply in 2024 for the first time in several years.
Early 2024, I wrote on the Chinese central bank driving gold up: “As the gold price will be making new all-time highs, I expect more Western investors to join buying gold, through ETFs and outright, as they will fear currency debasement just as the Chinese central bank. It will be a perfect storm for gold.”

This has become a reality as the price of gold is up 30% year-to-date. Meanwhile, the PBoC keeps the “pedal to the metal” (pun intended). In chart 2, we can see that in October, the SGE was trading at a discount while imports reached 95 tonnes, which was the same as in the prior month. I strongly suspect the PBoC was secretly buying gold in London again.

Large investors on both hemispheres are buying gold hand over fist. Ongoing wars and fiscal deficits aren’t waning, and the safe haven of choice for institutional money is gold.

We are in the midst of a perfect storm for gold that is to continue for years to come until debt levels and the global power distribution have rebalanced.

I will provide a computation of how much gold the PBoC truly owns in a forthcoming article. You may be surprised.

jog on
duc

A big part of the demand and price increases has been due to the conflicts in the middle east and between Russia and Ukraine.

I expect (with significantly less than 100% surety, of course) that Trump will end the Russia/Ukraine war and deescalate the situation in the middle east next year. Many people may think that's unrealistic but last time they said he'd start WWIII then actually ended multiple wars, resolved the situation with North Korea, started no new conflicts and generally made the world a more peaceful place.

Once again the world seems to be underestimating Trump's desire and ability to resolve wars, but assuming it happens, especially in light of it going against expectations, what would the likely impact on gold prices be?

 

[ducati916]

A big part of the demand and price increases has been due to the conflicts in the middle east and between Russia and Ukraine.

I expect (with significantly less than 100% surety, of course) that Trump will end the Russia/Ukraine war and deescalate the situation in the middle east next year. Many people may think that's unrealistic but last time they said he'd start WWIII then actually ended multiple wars, resolved the situation with North Korea, started no new conflicts and generally made the world a more peaceful place.

Once again the world seems to be underestimating Trump's desire and ability to resolve wars, but assuming it happens, especially in light of it going against expectations, what would the likely impact on gold prices be?

Mr Sd.,

I disagree.

A huge mistake on the part of the US was seizing Russian assets, this supercharged the move of Central Banks to gold.

The actual 'hot war' has little impact now on POG other than adding to US debt levels, but that's a runaway train now.

The issue is the ongoing breakdown of the hegemony of the USD and abandonment of UST as THE Reserve asset (replaced with gold). This trend will continue and increasingly pick up momentum.

Increasingly:





Full:https://www.lbma.org.uk/alchemist/issue-115/gold-and-the-path-to-hqla-status


Interestingly, while the LBMA is essentially begging banks and western policymakers to make themselves more crisis-proof by reserving gold as HQLA instead of government bonds (which have now become procyclical in a crisis by virtue of western sovereign debt loads hitting excessively high levels), the Global South appears to be doing this on their own, without regulators mandating it, as this week it was noted that the UAE overtook the UK as the second largest global physical gold trading hub behind only China.

Full:https://economymiddleeast.com/news/uae-world-second-largest-gold-trade-hub/


The UAE is becoming one of the major gold trade hubs around the world with significant growth in trade value. In 2023, the UAE surpassed the United Kingdom, becoming the second-largest gold trade hub worldwide, with over $129 billion in total trade, a rise of 36 percent over 2022.


The latest report from the Dubai Multi Commodities Center reveals that major shifts in the global gold trade will likely propel an ‘Asian century’ for gold, with a particular focus on the development of a new gold economic corridor among BRICS nations, including the UAE, that can provide an alternative to traditional gold trade centers.

And historically:


Chinese mentality was not understood then either in Europe or America: Europe was at the pinnacle of world power, full of confidence in the present and future, and Europeans found the Chinese amusing for their rejection of paper money and their practice of weighing metallic currency on scales. People presumed that the Chinese were five generations behind us – in reality they were a generation ahead of Europe.


Under Mongol emperors they had experienced a boom in which paper billions were issued to finance military conquests and vast public works, only to go through the bitter deflationary consequences – and the impression of all of this had lasted through many subsequent centuries.


The Raven of Zurich: The Memoirs of Felix Somary: page 68.

jog on
duc

 

[Sdajii]

Mr Sd.,

I disagree.

A huge mistake on the part of the US was seizing Russian assets, this supercharged the move of Central Banks to gold.

The actual 'hot war' has little impact now on POG other than adding to US debt levels, but that's a runaway train now.

The issue is the ongoing breakdown of the hegemony of the USD and abandonment of UST as THE Reserve asset (replaced with gold). This trend will continue and increasingly pick up momentum.

Increasingly:

View attachment 188704View attachment 188703

View attachment 188705

Full:https://www.lbma.org.uk/alchemist/issue-115/gold-and-the-path-to-hqla-status


Interestingly, while the LBMA is essentially begging banks and western policymakers to make themselves more crisis-proof by reserving gold as HQLA instead of government bonds (which have now become procyclical in a crisis by virtue of western sovereign debt loads hitting excessively high levels), the Global South appears to be doing this on their own, without regulators mandating it, as this week it was noted that the UAE overtook the UK as the second largest global physical gold trading hub behind only China.

Full:https://economymiddleeast.com/news/uae-world-second-largest-gold-trade-hub/


The UAE is becoming one of the major gold trade hubs around the world with significant growth in trade value. In 2023, the UAE surpassed the United Kingdom, becoming the second-largest gold trade hub worldwide, with over $129 billion in total trade, a rise of 36 percent over 2022.


The latest report from the Dubai Multi Commodities Center reveals that major shifts in the global gold trade will likely propel an ‘Asian century’ for gold, with a particular focus on the development of a new gold economic corridor among BRICS nations, including the UAE, that can provide an alternative to traditional gold trade centers.

And historically:


Chinese mentality was not understood then either in Europe or America: Europe was at the pinnacle of world power, full of confidence in the present and future, and Europeans found the Chinese amusing for their rejection of paper money and their practice of weighing metallic currency on scales. People presumed that the Chinese were five generations behind us – in reality they were a generation ahead of Europe.


Under Mongol emperors they had experienced a boom in which paper billions were issued to finance military conquests and vast public works, only to go through the bitter deflationary consequences – and the impression of all of this had lasted through many subsequent centuries.


The Raven of Zurich: The Memoirs of Felix Somary: page 68.

jog on
duc

I find it puzzling, and perhaps indicative of bias, that you would respond to my question of 'how might this affect things?' with 'I disagree'. That's not a valid answer to a question about how much of something does or will exist.

As for what you said, I agree with some of it but not all.

Yes, I agree that the USD is going to lose its place as the reserve currency and it'll largely be replaced with gold (exactly how this plays out and in what timeframe is uncertain). It was always quite bizarre for the USD to be the reserve currency when one individual country could sit there printing more of it, etc etc.

But, this has always been the case and was not an answer to my question.

As for your assertion that multiple hot wars have a negligible impact on the price of gold, and only impact it by adding to American debt, I can not agree. I think we all understand that multiple major global conflicts cause fear and a rush to safe havens such as gold, just to name one impact it has. How much, was my question, and I disagree with your assertion of zero/negligible.