RBA cash rate

[Macquack]

just in case you've missed it, RBA now has 2-day meetings, but only 9 times a year ... and not this coming Tuesday

2024 Reserve Bank Board meetings

• 5–6 February.
• 18–19 March.
• 6–7 May.
• 17–18 June.
• 5–6 August.
• 23–24 September.
• 4–5 November.
• 9–10 December

Free lunch on Monday, toss a coin on Tuesday.

 

[farmerge]

Free lunch on Monday, toss a coin on Tuesday.

@Macquack Yeah the "free" lunch is on us.

 

[Bailxtrader]

A bit of interest in the RBA & BOJ Interest rate decisions on Tuesday & being a trader of the AUD/USD & AUD/JPY. I think the RBA should remain on hold and continue to let the dust settle and give the borrowers a break. The market is untamed but I think Inflation should be given bit more time of day to deflate...

The RBA surprised a few of us by retaining their slightly hawkish bias in their February statement. Inflation is lower, consumer spending and growth are slowing. So what gives? The RBA still think inflation is too high, and they remain reluctant to announce a victory on inflation, particularly when the Fed retain a higher interest rate and it remains unclear as to when they may hike.

And until they remove from the final paragraph of the statement that “a further increase in the interest rate cannot be ruled out”, the RBA appear set to hold at 4.35%.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

HOLD

 

[wayneL]

HOLD

Gutless bastids.

 

[JohnDe]

Gutless bastids.

rock and hard place.

Governments throwing money everywhere, cost of living keeps going up, great employment figures, and a cooling economy.

The next 6 to 12 months is going to be interesting.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

...The next 6 to 12 months is going to be interesting.

May we live in "interesting" times.

 

[wayneL]

May we live in "interesting" times.

An Irish curse, and considering what is going on in Ireland, even more interesting.

 

[farmerge]

rock and hard place.

Governments throwing money everywhere, cost of living keeps going up, great employment figures, and a cooling economy.

The next 6 to 12 months is going to be interesting.

@JohnDe I guess those suffering with mortgage stress can get by for another month without tightening the belt another notch.

 

[TimeISmoney]

@JohnDe I guess those suffering with mortgage stress can get by for another month without tightening the belt another notch.

How bad can it be, the ANZ CEO announced today that they have .3 % of lenders in their hardship programme, 79% of customers were in front with loans and 50% were ahead by 3 months. I reckon you're going to see another rate rise before the years out.

 

[farmerge]

How bad can it be, the ANZ CEO announced today that they have .3 % of lenders in their hardship programme, 79% of customers were in front with loans and 50% were ahead by 3 months. I reckon you're going to see another rate rise before the years out.

@TimeIsmoeny perhaps rubbery figures, or is their loan book not that very large??

 

[TimeISmoney]

@TimeIsmoeny perhaps rubbery figures, or is their loan book not that very large??

Household disposable income is low but I think most people are getting by. If I get time tomorrow I'll see what other banks have as figures.

AMP figures.

 

[sptrawler]

Ok hang your nuts over the fence and put number on it. Lol
What do you think it will settle at?
I said a while ago 5.1 %.

How bad can it be, the ANZ CEO announced today that they have .3 % of lenders in their hardship programme, 79% of customers were in front with loans and 50% were ahead by 3 months. I reckon you're going to see another rate rise before the years out.

I still think 5.1% will be the top out point for the RBA, atm they are just letting people adjust IMO.
My earlier post above, was on November 7.

 

[mullokintyre]

I am with Westpac and ANZ.
Mick

 

[TimeISmoney]

I am with Westpac and ANZ.
Mick
View attachment 184728

It is definitely a hold this time around.

 

[BossMan.]

I am with Westpac and ANZ.

Hold with extremely hawkish language in my opinion. I still wouldn't rule out the possibility of a hike.

 

[TimeISmoney]

Experts split on first rate cut – and some think 2026​

And it's not just the banks who can't agree on when we'll get that first rate cut. In this month's Finder RBA Cash Rate Survey, where 42 experts and economists made their predictions, 39 of the votes are stretched across a 7-month window. Take a look below.
The end of the bar chart is something struggling homeowners might want to shield their eyes from, with 2 experts believing a rate cut will only come in 2026. Let's hope not.

RBA interest rate decision: Pressure mounts for cut as Aussies shoulder $14.5 billion burden

The RBA will deliver their cash rate decision this afternoon, and we'll be bringing you regular updates about what you can expect.

au.finance.yahoo.com

 

[mullokintyre]

And is hardly surprising that the RBA cash rate remains the same after todays meeting.
Now to digest the rationale behind it.

Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock has refused to grant cash-strapped household borrowers relief, keeping interest on hold for a seventh-straight meeting as the window for a pre-election rate cut continues to narrow.
In a move that was widely anticipated by economists and investors, the central bank’s board held the cash rate steady at 4.35 per cent, a level it has sustained since November, and offered scant evidence it was ready to commence rate cuts before Christmas.

“While headline inflation will decline for a time, underlying inflation is more indicative of inflation momentum, and it remains too high,” the RBA’s post-meeting press statement read.

Pointing to the RBA’s most recent staff forecasts released in August, the board noted that it would be some time yet before inflation sustainably returned to its 2 to 3 per cent target band.

“Data since then have reinforced the need to remain vigilant to upside risks to inflation and the board is not ruling anything in or out,” the statement read.

“Policy will need to be sufficiently restrictive until the board is confident that inflation is moving sustainably towards the target range.”

Mick

 

[Dona Ferentes]

The end of the bar chart is something struggling homeowners might want to shield their eyes from, with 2 experts believing a rate cut will only come in 2026.

... useful info if looking for Term Deposits

 

[sptrawler]

I'm in Brisbane airport ATM, absolutely humming, beer is $18 a pint and there is a queue to buy it.