RBA cash rate

[bluekelah]

Sadly my cautious way is not really a way to get "proper rich", though - unless one of my buy and hold stocks goes utterly nuts (I can only dream lol).

I am in the same boat, just doing income stocks, own my PPOR outright, zero debt, small stash of physical metals, just growing the pile for kids one step at a time.

 

[divs4ever]

Which stupid war was that? Was that the end of the Vietnam war in the early 70s where the Americans finally pulled out and the communist Viet Cong then managed to take over the entire country ? Sounds like a repeat of history in Afghanistan, where US forces left and the country fell to the Taliban.

or was it on of the Arab - Isreali wars?

Must have been a rough time to live through. I believe in history repeating itself, maybe not exactly but in similar fashion. Its been shown throughout history that a dominant power will create their own reserve fiat currency for global trade (dutch -> british -> USA) but ultimately another superpower takes over. Gold is what prevails in the end. We could be looking at a Chinese based global trade currency soon.

This Ray Dalio Video i think sums it up well.


I do think most CBs are hiking now, not becoz their economies are doing well but becoz they have NO CHOICE as thats the only way they know to fight inflation (or dare i say hyperinflation). Perhaps if we get to 15-20% rates again folks will remember it for at least a generation or so...Just like during the DotCom boom, those highly leveraged players will be wiped out for sure, we might even have to do a bank bail out or two

well the Vietnam War ( and the neighbouring Asian nations entangled with it ) was the one most remembered but there were other ones in other areas ( like South America )

BTW Vietnam was officially a 'police action' which allowed sections of the Geneva Convention to be bypassed ( by guess who )

now Vietnam depends on which side you viewed it from , i was lucky to work with a boy soldier ( conscripted at gun-point ) who was forced to be a scout ( mine detector ) for three different armies , lucky for him the Australian troops respected him enough to evacuate him when they left , so became an Australia citizen

however the war stories were NOT as one-sided as you might think , ( considering the Army threatened to slaughter the whole village if there was any compliant on the 'recruitment ' )

am not sure if any of my associates had any involvement of the Arab-Israeli war ( maybe they had strong views better not expressed , or maybe they had exited the middle-east previously )

now inflation is in the best interests of national treasuries ( inflate the national debt to trivial value and the CBs BUY that debt , if the CBs didn't buy that debt ... the CBs are basically unimportant (, except a few nations like the Russian Central Bank )

how close to those 15%-20% inflation rates ( not interest rates ) are we currently , i suspect scarily close , and IF SO the interest rates NEED to be slightly HIGHER to reduce inflation ( instead of fueling it )

remember the 'parachute ' this time is ( 'officially ' ) BAIL-IN they are coming for YOUR money early rather than later

for fun research , go research 'Tier 1' assets as Basel III sees that debt in the liability ranking in stressed banks

 

[wayneL]

remember the 'parachute ' this time is ( 'officially ' ) BAIL-IN they are coming for YOUR money early rather than later

for fun research , go research 'Tier 1' assets as Basel III sees that debt in the liability ranking in stressed banks

Interesting point about bail ins. Australian government has categorically stated that this does not apply in Australia, yet the possibility still does remain via loophole. Additionally it is the official policy of the BIS of which our banks are party to.

SO YEP I DON'T TRUST THEM.

This is highly alarming is we have more than a few shekels in the bank at the moment.

 

[againsthegrain]

so gentleman, who is tipping what for tomorrow's meeting? Everybody is saying up but just by how much?

 

[Dona Ferentes]

. My prediction, for what it's worth, is that the next, post-election, lift will be 40 bips, to take it to 0.75%. Then the RBA could raise further in the normal increments. And possibly to be in the 2's sometime next year.

from 04 May.

 

[JohnDe]

so gentleman, who is tipping what for tomorrow's meeting? Everybody is saying up but just by how much?

I’m going with 0.25%. The RBA broke governor broke his promise of no rate rise until 2024, so he doesn’t want to go too hard.

My business partner reckons that if the RBA board has any guts they’ll get all the pain out of the way early and hit us with 0.5%. Short term pain for long term gain.

 

[JohnDe]

from 04 May.

Pretty good. From the Australian -

“Bank economists are broadly split on whether the RBA’s board at its June meeting on Tuesday will deliver a 0.25 percentage point increase in the official cash rate target to 0.6 per cent, or announce a jumbo 0.4 percentage point increase to 0.75 per cent”

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/power-petrol-spikes-to-ramp-up-inflation/news-story/a575905b4225b6b8cf52fb8b14397414

 

[divs4ever]

I’m going with 0.25%. The RBA broke governor broke his promise of no rate rise until 2024, so he doesn’t want to go too hard.

My business partner reckons that if the RBA board has any guts they’ll get all the pain out of the way early and hit us with 0.5%. Short term pain for long term gain.

normally i would go for 0.25% ( despite the fact it is basically ineffective ) the RBA has been late and pathetic since at least November 2016 ( imo ) ... BUT it broke long term custom of hiking during a Federal Election campaign .

so was the RBA being political or desperate , 0.25% or 0.40% would hint at political , but would it bite the bullet and go for 0.5% trying for SHOCK ( without a nuclear fallout )

Australia with it's trade surplus is one of the few global economies that can survive a shock ( this time )

let's face it even a 1% rise is still way behind official inflation , but our economy is as much about confidence as about trade balance ,

maybe i am losing my memory but i don't remember Albo's greatest achievements when treasurer , so i doubt Albo will try a Kevin Rudd style recovery ( which i think was a good strategy implemented poorly )

lets go for 0.5% ( and most likely be disappointed again )

PS at the first hint of unrest with the masses ( and the Greens ) expect Albo to be bumped off the pedestal

 

[Jeda]

0.40%, if Philip has a pair

 

[Tropico]

0.40%, if Philip has a pair

0.4% or more, if the RBA will admit that real inflation is bigger than quoted and they really want to do something about it.
But they will probably remain in denial and drag the chain.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

0.25%

gg

 

[Telamelo]

RBA governor Philip Lowe announced a 0.5 percentage point increase in the cash rate to 0.85 per cent following the board’s June meeting on Tuesday afternoon.

 

[divs4ever]

seems the market is not so pleased about that , but maybe it is news elsewhere , that is moving the market

 

[waterbottle]

A

RBA governor Philip Lowe announced a 0.5 percentage point increase in the cash rate to 0.85 per cent following the board’s June meeting on Tuesday afternoon

About time

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

0.25%

gg

0.5%

gg

 

[divs4ever]

RBA governor Philip Lowe announced a 0.5 percentage point increase in the cash rate to 0.85 per cent following the board’s June meeting on Tuesday afternoon.

WHOOPS i thought GG had the goss.

this is probably less than we really needed but am happily surprised to see the RBA take things seriously ( at last )

 

[waterbottle]

WHOOPS i thought GG had the goss.

this is probably less than we really needed but am happily surprised to see the RBA take things seriously ( at last )

We are actually well behind several Western nations in the rate hike cycle, the difference being we have the opportunity to hike on a monthly basis

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

WHOOPS i thought GG had the goss.

this is probably less than we really needed but am happily surprised to see the RBA take things seriously ( at last )

I was just going on the AUD/USD Forex this morning, it was falling.

AUD gone up since announcement.

Australian Dollar to US Dollar Exchange Rate Chart | Xe

AUD to USD currency chart. XE’s free live currency conversion chart for Australian Dollar to US Dollar allows you to pair exchange rate history for up to 10 years.

www.xe.com

And its gone down a bit since I started this post.

gg

 

[Knobby22]

Pretty good. From the Australian -

“Bank economists are broadly split on whether the RBA’s board at its June meeting on Tuesday will deliver a 0.25 percentage point increase in the official cash rate target to 0.6 per cent, or announce a jumbo 0.4 percentage point increase to 0.75 per cent”

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/power-petrol-spikes-to-ramp-up-inflation/news-story/a575905b4225b6b8cf52fb8b14397414

The bank economists got that wrong.

 

[divs4ever]

well a rate hike ( within reason ) used to be good for the AUD

but the higher AUD might make it tougher for some miners ( and other exporters )