Sean K Trading

[Sean K]

End of a good week, particularly for those holding some PMs and uranium.

 

[Sean K]

I've noticed that the speculative end of the PM company list have hardly moved since gold and silver broke out and started to run. I have a feeling that the generalist market has just woken up and we might see juniors run on nothing more than fluff. I've seen it happen before, particularly in the 2005-8 period when penny stock iron ore companies went ballistic on a few posts by YT, who some of you may remember.

So, over the next couple of days I'm going to review some of the microcaps in the PM space and see what might be an opportunity to cash in on the insanity that occurs when a particular sector gets frothy.

Although the GDXJ is catching up to POG, the minnows are still languishing, and FOMO mania hasn't really happened yet, so the timing might be right.

 

[Country Lad]

So, over the next couple of days I'm going to review some of the microcaps in the PM space .....

Interesting, I started looking at them this afternoon - it am starting with those under $50 mil MC and with relatively few shares on issue as a start. I am assuming that there is little point looking at the small caps with a billion shares as it will take something significant to result in meaningful share price rise.
Only one so far - OSM but it has already started to run with their recent announcement and looks like a breakout a couple of days ago. Will post it later.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I've noticed that the speculative end of the PM company list have hardly moved since gold and silver broke out and started to run. I have a feeling that the generalist market has just woken up and we might see juniors run on nothing more than fluff. I've seen it happen before, particularly in the 2005-8 period when penny stock iron ore companies went ballistic on a few posts by YT, who some of you may remember.

So, over the next couple of days I'm going to review some of the microcaps in the PM space and see what might be an opportunity to cash in on the insanity that occurs when a particular sector gets frothy.

Although the GDXJ is catching up to POG, the minnows are still languishing, and FOMO mania hasn't really happened yet, so the timing might be right.

Interesting, I started looking at them this afternoon - it am starting with those under $50 mil MC and with relatively few shares on issue as a start. I am assuming that there is little point looking at the small caps with a billion shares as it will take something significant to result in meaningful share price rise.
Only one so far - OSM but it has already started to run with their recent announcement and looks like a breakout a couple of days ago. Will post it later.

This a bit uncanny. I have started doing the same. That is a very good point re < 1 billion shares @Country Lad .

gg

 

[Sean K]

Random thought on my short term SVL trade

While I'm thinking that gold minnows are going to go bananas if the gold price moves a bit more, silver will as well, but it's under cover.

I think I've got enough ETPMAG and SVL but I don't know another way of playing silver unless I use my international account, which I rarely do. I don't follow US and Canadian listed stocks and I'm not using CFDs.

I think this break up could mean that the silver genie is out of the bottle.



People are panicking. They're buying PMs hand over hoof. Looks like FOMO. It's almost frothy.

As always, calling something like this is fraught with danger, so, I'll probably have this bite me.

I've been calling for a consolidation for weeks, or months, for the PM trade to be a sustainable move without a subsequent crash. It's just not healthy. I backed up the train on PMs two years ago, so I could just exit now and be happy. But.

Minnows like SVL, with a strategic project in the wings that only needs a power plan annex that I could write, is ripe.

Do not underestimate what higher silver prices will do to the approval process of a power plan. Even Pilbo would approve it in her own electorate due to the taxes she will be able to use on her wardrobe. It might even get her into the Lodge after Albo moves to the coast in June 25.

I am reconsidering my proposed sell order at 14c on SVL depending on what happens with the market reaction to the silver break.

As always, calling an opportunity is going to mean this crashes to 8c on Monday and I will be broke.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Random thought on my short term SVL trade

While I'm thinking that gold minnows are going to go bananas if the gold price moves a bit more, silver will as well, but it's under cover.

I think I've got enough ETPMAG and SVL but I don't know another way of playing silver unless I use my international account, which I rarely do. I don't follow US and Canadian listed stocks and I'm not using CFDs.

I think this break up could mean that the silver genie is out of the bottle.

View attachment 186202

People are panicking. They're buying PMs hand over hoof. Looks like FOMO. It's almost frothy.

As always, calling something like this is fraught with danger, so, I'll probably have this bite me.

I've been calling for a consolidation for weeks, or months, for the PM trade to be a sustainable move without a subsequent crash. It's just not healthy. I backed up the train on PMs two years ago, so I could just exit now and be happy. But.

Minnows like SVL, with a strategic project in the wings that only needs a power plan annex that I could write, is ripe.

Do not underestimate what higher silver prices will do to the approval process of a power plan. Even Pilbo would approve it in her own electorate due to the taxes she will be able to use on her wardrobe. It might even get her into the Lodge after Albo moves to the coast in June 25.

I am reconsidering my proposed sell order at 14c on SVL depending on what happens with the market reaction to the silver break.

As always, calling an opportunity is going to mean this crashes to 8c on Monday and I will be broke.

View attachment 186203

It is indeed difficult to know what do do re Silver. All the experts insist demand is through the roof industrially and that supply, even if new very large mines were to open tomorrow, would take years to catch up.

It is a screaming buy and has been this year but this is not reflected in all stocks. Jewellery has dropped a bit with the cutback in retail spending in China but is mooted to return to prior levels. Perhaps the screaming rise of semiconductor stocks has kept interest away from PM mining and once that sector plateaus mining will take off.

Perhaps sticking with the metal itself is the way to go.

gg

 

[Country Lad]

So, over the next couple of days I'm going to review some of the microcaps in the PM space and see what might be an opportunity to cash in on the insanity that occurs when a particular sector gets frothy.

Interesting, I started looking at them this afternoon - it am starting with those under $50 mil MC and with relatively few shares on issue as a start. I am assuming that there is little point looking at the small caps with a billion shares as it will take something significant to result in meaningful share price rise.
Only one so far - OSM but it has already started to run with their recent announcement and looks like a breakout a couple of days ago. Will post it later.

But wait, there's more. Contenders are/were:
ASL - missed it this morning
OBM
OSM - manged to get it on open
USL - manged to get it on open
Waiting for triggers on these:
AVJ - a a close bove 38
BSA - a close of 110 or higher
FFm - a close of 110 or higher
POL - at close of 44 and looks like one for this afternoon
TOE - a close of 29+ and looks like today's update will do that
WIa - another for this afternoon.

Better get a few orders ready

 

[Sean K]

I was looking for some specs to buy this week and nothing jumped out at me. Might have been put off by a potential correction in the PM prices. We've only had a small one but expected some more follow through. Still might come.

One anomaly was PMGOLD continuing to go up against the tide. Very unusual.

Expecting a bit of a correction on the DXY and with Nth Korean troops spotted in Ukraine and Israel plotting some mayhem against Iran I think gold could still be supported short term, even though it's gone parabolic the past couple of months and running away from the 50 dma.

But, having an itchy finger I bought a few more PMGOLD at $41.01 ish which takes it up to 11.9% holdings, ave buy now $33.05.

 

[Sean K]

Just to explain my DXY theory, it's come up against some resistance and has ran very hard to this point. Might be enough for it to keep running but odds are it takes a pause. It's actually just gone through and only come back a bit so I'm probably going to be wrong on this one.

 

[Sean K]

Weekly update with comments and spread below. Using up cash incrementally, but still over 60%.

Need to work out how to do a progression graph of the % gain/loss. Due to lots of buys/sells and cash being used discretionarily (not sure if that's a word) it sort of can't work.

 

[Sean K]

One of the first legs of my support for POG for next week was Israel going full gonzo on Iran, but they seem to have kept the gloves on. If they had have bombed Pezeshkian's home, or some more significant infrastructure, then it might have been different. Good geostrategic politics with the potential for an easeback in Israel v Shia, not so good for POG.

(Good geostrategic politics in the sense that Israel need the general population of Iran to support strikes against the regime for an internal popular uprising against the regime.)

Further news about NK sending troops to Russia and possibly in occupied Ukraine may counter the geostrategic picture in support of POG.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

One of the first legs of my support for POG for next week was Israel going full gonzo on Iran, but they seem to have kept the gloves on. If they had have bombed Pezeshkian's home, or some more significant infrastructure, then it might have been different. Good geostrategic politics with the potential for an easeback in Israel v Shia, not so good for POG.

(Good geostrategic politics in the sense that Israel need the general population of Iran to support strikes against the regime for an internal popular uprising against the regime.)

Further news about NK sending troops to Russia and possibly in occupied Ukraine may counter the geostrategic picture in support of POG.

In relation to the NKorean chocolate soldiers who are presently based in Rostov and the Far East, Putin would not dare use them. They are described as "elite troops" but apart from bossing around the peasants at home they have never been anything else other than chocos for parades etc. Putin won't use them within the borders of Ukraine as the Poles, Finns and Swedes are itching for an excuse to get involved. Using them would be an ideal excuse. Then I'd worry about WW3.

As for Israel and Iran. The main threat to Israel on Oct. 8th 2023 were Hizbollah. they have been neutralised and Iran is just being picked off one limb at a time. Air defense over the last two days. Reactors will be next week and then oil assets. I don't know if ordinary Persians have the bottle to be free. I reckon Allah has got them for life. A few middle class lassies will throw off their hijabs but there is no viable opposition anywhere inside Iran or in the diaspora.

But you are correct. The geopolitical dial has been turned down. Taiwan is still looking across a few k's at China. The Gazans are similarly in it for Allah and the Israelis are very annoyed. Of any of the mobs I've mentioned the one I wouldn't ever get offside is Israel. The other aspect of gold's rise was BRICS. The old adage of buy on the rumour and sell on the fact may be true. Now that I seee what a sorry lot of no-hopers are going to be in BRICS my advice would be to sell every BRIC you can get your hands on. I mean South Africa for gawds sake. Apart from Nelson Mandela what has it ever given the world except debt, corruption and negative growth.

gg

 

[Sean K]

I mean South Africa for gawds sake. Apart from Nelson Mandela what has it ever given the world except debt, corruption and negative growth.

gg

They make some good wine and the Garden Route is a good drive.

 

[Sean K]

I took the link to my blog - myikigai.net - off a while ago because I was getting spammed from every direction. Not sure if it will happen if I just put the latest posts up here. So, will give it a try.

Sunday Lobster Lunch @ The Conservatory, Crown, Melbourne

We've just had a very long seafood lunch in Melbourne and I don't need to eat for a week. The Sunday Lobster Lunch at The Conservatory, Crow...

www.myikigai.net

 

[Dona Ferentes]

They make some good wine

Chilean is better

and the Garden Route is a good drive.

once. Worcester to Paarl was better

 

[Sean K]

Dipped my toe in the MEI pool. Looks like it might be a long term decent bet. Just following in Rick Rules steps really, but that burnt me on CTM, so who knows.

 

[Sean K]

By almost complete accident, FFM has turned into a flyer, and I think that I have to take some profits, even though it's just broken some short term resistance, which should now be OK support. It's over 10% of holdings now and up 40% so it's probably too heavy for what is now an explorer/developer.

So, I'm conflicted for a couple of reasons. I think there may be a general correction coming, but I also think this could be worth about double, plus it's running. I also think we're in the very early stages of a longer term copper bull, even if there's a short term crash, unless that crash is Ducati's armageddon scenario.

I'm also concerned about gold running away. I'm 55% PMs and got in mostly before it broke out, so the prudent thing would be to start skimming, which I have done as per previous posts but still very heavy.

Maybe I'll think about it a bit more.

The problem of being a discretionary investor without a solid plan.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

By almost complete accident, FFM has turned into a flyer, and I think that I have to take some profits, even though it's just broken some short term resistance, which should now be OK support. It's over 10% of holdings now and up 40% so it's probably too heavy for what is now an explorer/developer.

So, I'm conflicted for a couple of reasons. I think there may be a general correction coming, but I also think this could be worth about double, plus it's running. I also think we're in the very early stages of a longer term copper bull, even if there's a short term crash, unless that crash is Ducati's armageddon scenario.

I'm also concerned about gold running away. I'm 55% PMs and got in mostly before it broke out, so the prudent thing would be to start skimming.

Maybe I'll think about it a bit more.

The problem of being a discretionary investor without a solid plan.

View attachment 186811

Just go with your gut feeling, @Sean K . It's worked so far. I thought I'd include a chart to help . although as you say nothing goes forever.



gg

 

[Sean K]

Just go with your gut feeling, @Sean K . It's worked so far. I thought I'd include a chart to help . although as you say nothing goes forever.

View attachment 186816

gg

PMGOLD has been a champion. My first bite was in Nov 21 when it looked like it was breaking up. Should have just backed up the train, but them's the breaks.

 

[dyna]

No plan . No idea really , either . " When in doubt , do nothing . "
A lot of times , being a happy idiot and riding things out , has paid off in spades for me .
Outside of a big war or whatnot , the worst that can happen to me , is : I'll no longer being losing 47 cents in every dollar to the fiscal fiend.