Trump Era 2025-2029 : Stock and Economic Comment

[Smurf1976]

Currency fluctuations are now ENORMOUS. (Who is on the other side of these trades ?)

That's the one I'm thinking may cause real trouble.

If anyone didn't have volatility in the stock market factored into their model, be it manual or automated, then they were always going to blow up at some point. Whilst the drop is significant, it's by no means unprecedented.

The currency swings however, fair chance in my view they aren't factored into models, calculations and so on.

Personally though, well among other things I'm holding GOLD and USD so that's an upside.

 

[IFocus]

One point that keeps coming to mind is 60% or US citizens live week to week on the edge how long before they stop spending

 

[basilio]

One point that keeps coming to mind is 60% or US citizens live week to week on the edge how long before they stop spending

Or just can't afford to keep spending..

 

[divs4ever]

Another concern I have is the financial stability of scores of countries and industries around the world. The US Tariff demands are major stresses on these economies. The Stock market collapses add another layer of pressure. I wonder when we will the effects of these policy decisions on multiple countries position on international debts.

How effectively can the IMF handle multiple defaults ? Again who is on the other side of these obligations ?

IMF , unlikely .. BIS maybe

but yes the contagion threat is very real

Japan should be one to watch closely ( but don't neglect others .. like half of Europe )

 

[divs4ever]

One point that keeps coming to mind is 60% or US citizens live week to week on the edge how long before they stop spending

as soon as easy credit runs out , because living costs WILL rise ( cheaper fuel will only do so much )

 

[qldfrog]

There might not be any FED bailouts this time around

Pierce the abscesses

 

[divs4ever]

Or just can't afford to keep spending..

that SEEMS to be happening already

look for 'budget stores ' ( selling essentials like clothing , food , medicines ) to close outlets and reduce staff .

not rampant yet be happening

 

[divs4ever]

Pierce the abscesses

there is another way but that will be unpleasant and slower ( so that will be avoided as well )

 

[qldfrog]

there is another way but that will be unpleasant and slower ( so that will be avoided as well )

It us funny to see the usual culprits here:
Trump this Trump that
Trump applied his policies , there is a strategy and a plan beyond.
Will it work: i doubt as i believe the us are too far gone in term of debt. And destroyed social cohesion .
But it has a small chance, with inflation yes, but with full employment.
And we will collapse in a heap..because we deserve it.
DYOR
Look at how small exports are in term of percentage of China economic activity, especially toward the west.
China will be ok ,as will Russia and India
US can make it. Maybe...
The rest of the world will hook to a superpower and act as their bxtch.
Within 5y i would say it will become obvious
EU will gesticulate, collapse economically and socially
Choose your poison pill of choice.
And your investment focus should reflect that.
And i am sure it is because Trump is playing golf in Florida .
Funny thing is their ABC is nearly moderate vs the constant barrage of anti Trump clickbaits on News ltd last few weeks.
What is Murdoch empire scared of?
That should be the focus of our leftists
Unless suddenly Murdoch has found the voice of reason, and is now a global warming zealot defending wokism?
As usual, DYOR, get away from religious integrism and look at facts and real science.
Spy is back to..february 2024..plenty of room to go to reach a more decent pe, let alone overreaching..which is often the case

 

[divs4ever]

Murdoch ?
1 losing AD revenue that is why he clings to Trump , the others are too Globalist to touch him , he has 50% of US eyes to himself ( apart from genuine alt. media )

now as much as i am cautious on Musk , Musk IS getting the eyes so much so the EU is in terror

they now fear him ( Elon ) more than Tik Tok

2. Murdoch worries there is no apparent Murdoch heir , Elizabeth has the skills to be sure but she has morals and ethics , so News/FOX under her would be a very different business , no gutter-dredging , less lightweight pr0n , something genuine conservative parents would encourage their children to watch

.. which would basically break the NWS/FOX brand

something to watch for is if James Packer comes out of retirement and chums up with Lachlan Murdoch ( and form a new business ) James seems to have acquired a fair set of his father's skills , the pair could be a winner again maybe in the Chinese controlled territories

 

[Smurf1976]

Will it work: i doubt as i believe the us are too far gone in term of debt.

My thoughts:

1. Bring on a financial crisis.

2. Interest rate cuts, bond yields fall.

3. Refinance debt.

4. Inflation to erode the real value of the debt.

So doing over the bond holders basically.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

 

[IFocus]

My thoughts:

1. Bring on a financial crisis.

2. Interest rate cuts, bond yields fall.

3. Refinance debt.

4. Inflation to erode the real value of the debt.

So doing over the bond holders basically.

There may be a inflation spike but the bigger picture is demand drop off equals deflation recession

 

[DannyB0000]

What did these penguins do to deserve a 10% tariff from the Americans ?, the island is only inhabited by penguins and seals. They have treated us unfairly I guess.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Says it all @DannyB0000

gg

 

[Dona Ferentes]

View attachment 196881

What did these penguins do to deserve a 10% tariff from the Americans ?, the island is only inhabited by penguins and seals. They have treated us unfairly I guess.

I think @wayneL covered that in post #493.

first para: "Tariffing uninhabited islands by name prevents tarriffed nations from pulling a fast one and trying to say goods are "from" the uninhabited island themselves, for example the fisheries"

second para. up to you

 

[TimeISmoney]

I think @wayneL covered that in post #493.

first para: "Tariffing uninhabited islands by name prevents tarriffed nations from pulling a fast one and trying to say goods are "from" the uninhabited island themselves, for example the fisheries"

second para. up to you

They'll just have to change the island's name instead.

How does the 'island of America' sound?

 

[DannyB0000]

They'll just have to change the island's name instead.

How does the 'island of America' sound?

Two unihabited Antarctic islands in the middle of nowhere, zero exports.

 

[basilio]

that SEEMS to be happening already

look for 'budget stores ' ( selling essentials like clothing , food , medicines ) to close outlets and reduce staff .

not rampant yet be happening

I think that could happen very quickly. In the short term I wouldn't be surprised to see a rush on current stock by thoughtful people. I wonder if the owners will put up current prices immediately to cover the increased cost of restocking ?

The other big hit will be with online purchase through Amazon and Temu. These will be hit with heavy tariffs as well.

 

[basilio]

Offers some excellent historical comparisons of how leaders can make truly stupid far reaching decisions​

​

On Trade and Tariffs, Trump’s Stubborn Ignorance Shines Bright​

The president can't be taught. And we’re suffering for it.​

Mona Charen
Apr 04, 2025






President Donald J. Trump speaks to reporters about auto tariffs after signing an executive order in the Oval Office at the White House on Wednesday, March 26, 2025 in Washington, D.C. (Photo by Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post via Getty Images)

A WALL STREET JOURNAL EDITORIAL described the tariffs President Donald Trump unveiled this week as the “dumbest trade war in history.” Let’s concede that intelligence isn’t everything. We all know brilliant people who’ve done dumb things. And we certainly all know people of average intelligence who are the sort to whom you’d entrust your children and life savings.

So it’s important not to overrate intelligence, even in leaders. But President Trump is no ordinary man. His stubborn strain of stupidity belongs on a list of deadly sins. And that weak-mindedness is now plunging the world into chaos and potentially into depression.

It should go without saying that our constitutional system was never meant to be so vulnerable to the whims and fantasies of one man. Nothing as critical as the entire world trading system or the maintenance of the NATO alliance should be decided by which side of the bed upon which the emperor wakes up. But due to the cowardice and cupidity of the GOP and others, we’ve gradually lost our antibodies to strongman rule, and we now find ourselves bowing before a power-drunk man-child.

On Trade and Tariffs, Trump’s Stubborn Ignorance Shines Bright

The president can't be taught. And we’re suffering for it.

www.thebulwark.com