Trump Era 2025-2029 : Stock and Economic Comment

[moXJO]

Meanwhile, oh my god, guys, go check out wallstreetbets...

I love those chimps. Doubling down buying calls is pure degen

 

[qldfrog]

View attachment 196878

better than dole and a debt even the grandchildren will not be able to repay ...
And the purpose of tariff is not to be paid $50 a week and yes jeans will be dearer

 

[qldfrog]

Two unihabited Antarctic islands in the middle of nowhere, zero exports.

and just to explain to those who do not want to understand:
a very concrete example:
after all the frauds etc Trump v1 put tariff and limits /control on "made in China" honey with the majority of US supermarket sold honey being fake.
Malaysia in no time became the number one exporter of honey to the US, much much more than entire malaysian production ,while producing hardly any....
Meanwhile the non Trump Australia is the wise one, get its real clean honey purchased at $8 from our beekeepers , most of the production is then onsold to Asia inc China where it is sold around $50 a kg, while chinese 'honey' , a great compound of rice sugars and flavours is imported here and sold at a bargain 9 to $10 in most of your supermarket and used in industrial process
Happy with the penguins?
That would explain Taiwan and Singapore tariff BTW as the "overseas chinese" is the way chinese companies did bypass or now will try to bypass the tariffs.

 

[Knobby22]

Republicans want to have a say.

Republicans join bill urging congressional oversight of tariffs
published at 22:41

Some Republican lawmakers in the US are backing a new bill that would force Congress to vote on any new tariffs before they can stay in place.

Under the proposal, any new tariffs would automatically end after 60 days unless Congress agrees to keep them.

In 1977, the International Emergency Economic Powers Act shifted powers even more towards the White House. The Trump administration claims that it gives the President the authority to raise tariffs without any limits during a national emergency of any kind.

 

[divs4ever]

My thoughts:

1. Bring on a financial crisis.

2. Interest rate cuts, bond yields fall.

3. Refinance debt.

4. Inflation to erode the real value of the debt.

So doing over the bond holders basically.

the problem MIGHT be those bond holders are all the pension/super funds that the managers have over-leveraged to goose up returns

so the peasants get broken again ( and the managers keep the fees for being so reckless )

 

[qldfrog]

Republicans want to have a say.

Republicans join bill urging congressional oversight of tariffs
published at 22:41

Some Republican lawmakers in the US are backing a new bill that would force Congress to vote on any new tariffs before they can stay in place.

Under the proposal, any new tariffs would automatically end after 60 days unless Congress agrees to keep them.

In 1977, the International Emergency Economic Powers Act shifted powers even more towards the White House. The Trump administration claims that it gives the President the authority to raise tariffs without any limits during a national emergency of any kind.

I imagine the lobbies/dark swamp pulling all its strings and puppets half republican labelled, no doubt for the better of the American people...

 

[over9k]

How are the banks fairing in this bloodbath

The banks hold a lot of bonds as reserves now and they've actually held relatively (relatively) steady compared to stocks.

The banks have dropped yes but they haven't been bent over the proverbial like the big tech/magnificent 7 have.

Remember that if the magnificent 7 were accountable for so much of the runup then unless economic conditions have changed to fundamentally disfavour a different industry then it stands to reason that they're going to be responsible for such a disproportionate percentage of the drop as well.

And this is exactly what has happened.

 

[over9k]

As a rule markets overshoot

Accurate. They were well & truly due for a correction, my instinct is that these tariffs have just been the catalyst to cause it.

Gut instinct says that we would have just had a longer/slower stagnation or slow melt if not for the tariffs and instead we've had a demolition.

Both would have gotten us to the same place, the tariffs have just gotten the job done a lot faster/messier.

 

[over9k]

As an extension of the above point, the fun is now trying to predict at what point the rubble is going to stop falling.

 

[Knobby22]

I imagine the lobbies/dark swamp pulling all its strings and puppets half republican labelled, no doubt for the better of the American people...

It's called democracy.
They are called elected representatives.

 

[qldfrog]

It's called democracy.
They are called elected representatives.

Yes that is what we still call that, same here in oz but a bit less in your face..
i have no real problem with MP US equivalent making decisions outside party lines, i wish we had more here .
We just both know if you are honest ,that is the only way lobbies can take control back again and it is nearly a given the push is coming from them.

 

[Knobby22]

Yes that is what we still call that, same here in oz but a bit less in your face..
i have no real problem with MP US equivalent making decisions outside party lines, i wish we had more here .
We just both know if you are honest ,that is the only way lobbies can take control back again and it is nearly a given the push is coming from them.

And if you were honest you would agree Trump cannot rule as a King but should be constrained by the Constitution like every other President in history.

Presidents were never meant to rule alone. He has to argue his case and justify the decisions he makes. That 1973 decision was meant to allow actions during a crisis.

 

[divs4ever]

And if you were honest you would agree Trump cannot rule as a King but should be constrained by the Constitution like every other President in history.

Presidents were never meant to rule alone. He has to argue his case and justify the decisions he makes. That 1973 decision was meant to allow actions during a crisis.

are they actually in a crisis ( but won't admit it publicly ) ?

we have heard a new formula to explain why the US is not in recession this time

GDP includes Government Spending ( now ) no matter how unproductive that spending is

New Zealand admits they are in a recession several G7 nations are going very badly you don't need to glance at official statistics to assess that , and the US has a large persistent trade deficit to dozens of nations .

maybe the US is in crisis

 

[qldfrog]

And if you were honest you would agree Trump cannot rule as a King but should be constrained by the Constitution like every other President in history.

Presidents were never meant to rule alone. He has to argue his case and justify the decisions he makes. That 1973 decision was meant to allow actions during a crisis.

Definitely, but remember i come from France which most people consider as a democracy.. it is not anymore imho, and the president can basically rule as a dictator, and actually does..
So should the reps have power, of course.
In essence, nothing wrong with their request
Let's not just pretend the push is for democracy whereas it is lobbies fighting back.
That is all my reaction is:
Tariffs, following day calls from various nations and interests to their men in the house, et voilà .
The cheques are on their ways..
Nearly comical no?

 

[wayneL]

Buy Buy Buy... FFS BUUUUYYYYYY!!!

 

[rolly1]

Buy Buy Buy... FFS BUUUUYYYYYY!!!

View attachment 196910

Can't happen these days level 3 circuit breaker is at 20% and markets close for the rest of the day. Just an fyi level 1 is at 7% close for 15 min after that, level 2 is 13% closes for another 15 min.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

From Strategas:

“President Trump announced his tariff proposal today, which is near the worst-case scenario. We estimate the proposal will generate roughly $500bn of tariff revenue on top of the $150bn that has already been enacted. Trump said he wanted $600bn and he got it. This represents 2.2 percent of GDP and twice the size of the largest tax increase in modern US history.”

Source: Strategas​

Tariffs are a tax increase on the American people and business just like a sales tax increase.

 

[wayneL]

Can't happen these days level 3 circuit breaker is at 20% and markets close for the rest of the day. Just an fyi level 1 is at 7% close for 15 min after that, level 2 is 13% closes for another 15 min.

Haha. The point is Cramer is the most reliable contrarian signal there is.

 

[Knobby22]

From Strategas:

“President Trump announced his tariff proposal today, which is near the worst-case scenario. We estimate the proposal will generate roughly $500bn of tariff revenue on top of the $150bn that has already been enacted. Trump said he wanted $600bn and he got it. This represents 2.2 percent of GDP and twice the size of the largest tax increase in modern US history.”

View attachment 196912
Source: Strategas​

Tariffs are a tax increase on the American people and business just like a sales tax increase.

I have a friend who just got laid off from a big USA pharma company. He was told they would give him a well paid job in the USA with the choice of a few different cities and he was for it but his wife who is Texan refused to go back.
She is scared for her kids safety in the school environment + she loves Australia.

The reason he lost his job is that they are trying to keep Trump happy by bring back US jobs.
They won't move any plant as its financially stupid. US citizens will just have to pay the tariff.e.g. Viagra is made in India.

 

[TimeISmoney]

and just to explain to those who do not want to understand:
a very concrete example:
after all the frauds etc Trump v1 put tariff and limits /control on "made in China" honey with the majority of US supermarket sold honey being fake.
Malaysia in no time became the number one exporter of honey to the US, much much more than entire malaysian production ,while producing hardly any....
Meanwhile the non Trump Australia is the wise one, get its real clean honey purchased at $8 from our beekeepers , most of the production is then onsold to Asia inc China where it is sold around $50 a kg, while chinese 'honey' , a great compound of rice sugars and flavours is imported here and sold at a bargain 9 to $10 in most of your supermarket and used in industrial process
Happy with the penguins?
That would explain Taiwan and Singapore tariff BTW as the "overseas chinese" is the way chinese companies did bypass or now will try to bypass the tariffs.

I think all it shows you is how stupid Trump is, there are literally millions of islands across the globe where you could register a business from. China could easily backdoor the US through a third vendor in Russia in any case.