Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Trump Era 2025-2029 : Stock and Economic Comment

Futures are deep into the red aftermarket and tomorrow's friday so the typical friday selloff is going to undoubtedly be amplified now.

I wouldn't be surprised to see spy close back near 500.
 
Just had a read about The Trumpet and his "beautiful" hair.
It would appear that he has signed an Executive Order lifting the restrictions on water usage, so he doesn't have to stand under the shower for a prolonged time so he can wash his hair.
Now POTUS is either a raving nut case, mad or just plain both.
Apart from his vanity who gives a stuff about his hair, whether it be yellow, green, red or off white.
 
heavy fall indeed;
And now I regret having put so low amounts in bbus and bboz yesterday
My gear buys are still on, this cascading buys in Gear and Bear ETF both asx and US market has been great so far, and a trailing SL after purchase with a small delta ->the week has been good for that
but that is trading so I do not go over the board in term of $ at play.
Hopefully will still keep my ATH by Saturday after the expected heavy loss on the asx today
And I start purchasing shares parcels with all that cash which was waiting.
The market might keep falling but better buying parcel at 2y old prices (not counting inflation) than 6 m ago.
Thanks POTUS Trump :cool:
Now the market will slowly settle, always use to, even during wars and probably in a slow fall mode.
Happy to be at home and with good tools access in the last 2 weeks
Aus is going to get caught up in this frog - so much of aus depends on china and if china gets ground into dust then aus will be collateral damage.

The pivot over to india is A: years behind schedule and B: not an equivalent substitute.

I don't feel positive about australian markets at all. Trade their volatility but as a longer term buy & hold? Nope.
 
Aus is going to get caught up in this frog - so much of aus depends on china and if china gets ground into dust then aus will be collateral damage.

The pivot over to india is A: years behind schedule and B: not an equivalent substitute.

I don't feel positive about australian markets at all. Trade their volatility but as a longer term buy & hold? Nope.
I agree with you on that shile i sold all my gears yesterday, my bear are not offliaded yet, on a trailing SZl znc not keen on breaking this.
We are well dud a market correction anc that is not with cba in the $150 on retail home luans
 
The pivot over to india is A: years behind schedule and B: not an equivalent substitute.
true , but i have only been trying to get exposure for the last three years , BUT one day ( maybe 20 years down the track ) India will have the population and location to be a genuine equivalent , especially if the Indian Horn ( Sri Lanka , Bangladesh , Pakistan and Kashmir ) become friendly neighbors again , and cooperate when sensible

China is established while India is still trying to establish itself
 
A current perspective on the Trump trade war.

As Trump and China refuse to blink on tariffs, the biggest consumer splurge in history is over

By Americas editor John Lyons
9h ago9 hours ago
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For decades, Trump has believed that tariffs are the way for the US to level the international trading system. (Getty: Chip Somodevilla)

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The most powerful economy in human history — but can you buy a toaster?

The most daunting military ever — but why are our children's toys so expensive?

Even after he did a last minute U-turn, that's the future facing Americans in the new world of Donald Trump.

As they watched their 401K superannuation funds diminish by the day, the reality of a re-elected Trump was beginning to dawn on Americans.

What Trump was doing, in the words of Australia's former Ambassador to China, Geoff Raby, could be "one of history's greatest acts of self-harm".

Whether he lost his nerve, or this was all a game of chicken as his White House claims, Trump backed down by putting a 90-day pause on his "reciprocal" tariffs, instead announcing that almost all trading partners may be subject to the same "baseline" 10 rate instead.
China, however, is a different story.

Trump has ratcheted up the pressure on his foe, Beijing, slapping a 145 per cent tariff on Chinese goods, effectively immediately.

Since the end of World War II, large sections of the American public have gorged themselves on an eight-decade consumption binge of low-cost goods, most of them from China.

But as a US-China trade war now looms, that feast is likely over.

One of Australia's most experienced bureaucrats and academics, Hugh White, observed that the Chinese are unlikely to escalate the current crisis as "they are not stupid, unlike the present mob in Washington".

To have someone such as Hugh White — who has held one of the most sensitive positions in the Department of Defence and has been one of Australia's key liaison officials with US defence and intelligence officials — describe the current US administration as "stupid" shows how much the world is changing.

 
Looking at the financial perils facing Australia/The world because of Trumps Tariff war. Trump took a step back from the Bond Market cliff. But no one is confident that peril isn't a clear and very present danger.

Australia is staring down rising unemployment and supersized rate cuts as Trump’s decisions hit home

By business reporter David Taylor
9h ago9 hours ago
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The Trump backdown, in the face of global financial market panic, has left many questioning what comes next in international geopolitics and finance. (Reuters: Evelyn Hockstein)

The bond market turned on the United States mid-way through this week.

Tariff uncertainty led to a brief loss of confidence in the US administration and the economy it's trying to manage.

It sent US borrowing costs toward unsustainable levels
.
Bond yields, again, approached alarmingly high levels overnight and into Asian trade earlier today.
It followed news that US tariffs on China were actually as high as 145 per cent.

It has global financial markets on tenterhooks.

....
On Wednesday night (Australian time) the fallout from Trump's trade policy hit a genuine crisis point.

The bond market sold off, pushing bond prices down, and interest rates up… sharply.

It was a crisis because, for a moment in time, the bedrock of the global financial system — the US Treasury bond market — was on the brink of collapse.

The US president was confronted by a force far greater than his own and the office he now holds overnight. The bond market, an arena where brutality knows no bounds and where the participants take no prisoners.

It was crashing, signalling to the global financial system, that confidence in the US's ability to manage its economy was being seriously eroded.

"If the bond market is not functioning, then the global capital market system cannot function as the US 10-year treasury yield is the basis for the cost of capital globally," Jamieson Coote Bonds Senior Portfolio Manager James Wilson said.

 
We're up, they're down..........

AUD/USD - Australian Dollar US Dollar​





Real-time Currencies

Currency in
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0.6209
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Trump's supporter base are in for rude shock in the months ahead when prices and inflation start to rise again. They still think other countries will pay for the tariffs not them. 145% tariffs on China is really a tax on them. the price of toasters and other electrical goods is going to go up significantly. This should be reflected in inflation numbers coming out of that country in the next few months so stay tuned.
 
I agree with you on that shile i sold all my gears yesterday, my bear are not offliaded yet, on a trailing SZl znc not keen on breaking this.
We are well dud a market correction anc that is not with cba in the $150 on retail home luans
Ok i retype that **** properly
I agree with you on that while i sold all my gears yesterday, my bear are not offloaded yet, on a trailing SL and not keen on breaking this manually
We are well due a market correction and that is not one with cba in the $150s built on retail home loans
Note, since then bbus exited at 5.24 not optimum but a nice profit still
 
Texas Tariff Hold em update. China has matched Trumps Tariff call. :rolleyes:

China to increase tariffs on US goods to 125 per cent, up from 84 per cent

11m ago11 minutes ago
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China says the US tariffs defy "basic economic laws". (AP Photo: Vincent Thian)

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China will impose 125 per cent tariffs on US goods up from the 84 per cent previously announced, the finance ministry says.
The new tariffs will start from Saturday, Chinese local time.

China says US tariffs defy "basic economic laws and common sense".

In his first public comments about the US China trade war, President Xi Jinping said there are no winners in a tariff war.
He called on China and the European Union to jointly oppose unilateral bullying, a reference to Mr Trump's tariff regime, while meeting with the Spanish Prime Minister in Beijing.

The White House clarified earlier that Donald Trump's announcement of 125 per cent import taxes on Chinese goods is in addition to earlier tariffs — bringing the total since he was inaugurated less than three months ago to 145 per cent.
Chinese state media is also reporting that China has filed a lawsuit with the World Trade Organisation in relation to the latest round of tariffs.

 
Texas Tariff Hold em update. China has matched Trumps Tariff call. :rolleyes:

China to increase tariffs on US goods to 125 per cent, up from 84 per cent

11m ago11 minutes ago
View attachment 197329
China says the US tariffs defy "basic economic laws". (AP Photo: Vincent Thian)

Link copied

China will impose 125 per cent tariffs on US goods up from the 84 per cent previously announced, the finance ministry says.
The new tariffs will start from Saturday, Chinese local time.

China says US tariffs defy "basic economic laws and common sense".

In his first public comments about the US China trade war, President Xi Jinping said there are no winners in a tariff war.
He called on China and the European Union to jointly oppose unilateral bullying, a reference to Mr Trump's tariff regime, while meeting with the Spanish Prime Minister in Beijing.

The White House clarified earlier that Donald Trump's announcement of 125 per cent import taxes on Chinese goods is in addition to earlier tariffs — bringing the total since he was inaugurated less than three months ago to 145 per cent.
Chinese state media is also reporting that China has filed a lawsuit with the World Trade Organisation in relation to the latest round of tariffs.

Who is the best poker player. My money is on the Chinese Leader stoney faced that gives nothing away, On the other hand The Trumpet smirks and face pulls.
 
China blinks!

View attachment 197335

Now we see what the orangutan does with everyone else.
Nuh

The current figures are crazy. China is just saying we are both at peak crazy. We are not going to dignify any further increase with a response.

It is also offering an off ramp
- if Trump wants to take it. Let's stop this now (because we won't play the game ) and start considering ways to reset the situation. These Tariffs make US/China Trade practically impossible. Does that make sense for either party ?
 


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