Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Trump Era 2025-2029 : Stock and Economic Comment

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over9k said:
The huge dump in the oil price seems to have gone over everyone's respective heads and it is really, really significant.
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It is but then there's the longer term implications.

US oil extraction costs are rising meanwhile the price of oil has dropped. That's going to move the more marginal developments from viable to unviable.

That then sets up for shortage and a price spike down the track. :2twocents
 
Knobby22 said:
It means lowering of output and recession.
It means clowns are steering the good ship USA.
They were trusted. Now they are not.
Click to expand...

More to it. The goal's to get the energy intensive stuff like manufacturing back on U.S soil, right?

So there's an increase in the price of the imported competition and a reduction in input costs ;)

Smurf1976 said:
It is but then there's the longer term implications.

US oil extraction costs are rising meanwhile the price of oil has dropped. That's going to move the more marginal developments from viable to unviable.

That then sets up for shortage and a price spike down the track. :2twocents
Click to expand...
True over the short term but that's just the shorter term supply side. Let me be a bit more specific with what I'm getting at though:


What I'm trying to get everyone to focus on here is not necessarily economic growth/contraction but rather structure. It is highly unlikely you're going to restructure an economy in any kind of significant way over anything other than the very long term without making at least a little bit of a meal of it.

War is an excellent example of this - when the powers that be end up needing to put an economy on a war footing (so restructure it for war) they always, always, always make at least a bit of a mess in the process. It just comes with the territory - decisions made in real time are almost never perfect. There are almost always unforeseen consequences/teething problems and it often takes quite some time to get, say, a B-29 production line up and running properly.

Here's a direct quote from an article just to give an example:

"Bell-Atlanta (Marietta)

Located in Marietta, Georgia, about 20 miles northwest of Atlanta, the plant covered an enormous 3.96 million square feet, making it the largest dedicated to B-29 production. However, despite its size and potential, the Bell-Atlanta Plant faced numerous challenges that hindered its production output.

Construction of the plant took place from 1942 to 1943, with an investment of $47 million in taxpayer dollars towards the plant, its equipment, and adjacent runways. The plant occupied more than twice the area of the Renton or Wichita plants, yet it experienced problems from the start, including an inadequate workforce. Despite these challenges, the Bell-Atlanta Plant eventually started producing B-29s and B-29Bs, but the journey was far from smooth.

The shortage of materials and Bell’s relative lack of experience building large aircraft combined with poor communication between Bell and Boeing made it difficult for the plant to get off the ground.

By the end of 1944, 17,200 workers were employed at Plant #6, working two nine-hour shifts, seven days a week. The labor force peaked at 27,000 in the spring of 1945.

By the end of the war, 668 Superfortresses had left the Marietta plant, a far cry from the 1,200 originally ordered".



So to use an analogy, if you want to make an omelette you're going to break a few eggs, right?

Well, have you ever heard the phrase "using a sledgehammer to crack an egg" referring to someone doing something in what you might describe as the messiest/over the top/blunt instrument way possible?

Yeah well trump's been using the sledgehammer, hasn't he?
 
To emphasise my point, I've been using the term "sledgehammer" quite deliberately:

over9k said:
To be fair here, no shortage of people (me included) considered the runup before all of this to be waaay overdone.

View attachment 195116

I know an ungodly amount of money printing and everything else has gone on post-covid but if we consider the runup before this to be like the same bounce above trend throughout all of 2021 then as we can see a return to trend (assuming it's a slower melt and doesn't happen over the next couple of days) should be at about the 515 mark.

Obviously a dip back below trend like throughout 2022 will dump way below it to the 450 mark but the point is that in a purely graphical/trend sense all we're seeing at the moment is a trend or mean reversion.

Trump's sledgehammer might have just been the catalyst markets needed to have a bit of reflection on the last year and go "well you know I think we might have gotten a bit ahead of ourselves here".

So yeah. 515 for a reprice to trend, obviously a corresponding downwards fluctuation to the run above trend we've seen would get us down more to the 450 mark.

Hitting 515 seems relatively likely, 450 much harder to say. A lot of uncertainty going forward.

A series of buy orders at 515, 500, 485, 470 etc wouldn't be foolish.
Click to expand...

over9k said:
Also:

View attachment 195267

All that red is all the manufacturing lost (offshored) over the last 30 years. Meanwhile, in the age of the internet, it's becoming very easy to offshore the green (email your invoices etc off to a guy in india to do your book keeping for you), hence if something isn't done then the green, as you can see by its trend reversal in about 2018, would go next.

Tariff raising is a straight up sledgehammer to the race to the bottom/globalisation of the labour force that globalisation created. Smashing that system to smithereens, whilst trying to do something to fix the fiscal position of the government is its purpose.
Click to expand...

over9k said:
QFT

Young people do most of the consuming of "stuff" so if you make "stuff" then you need a young country to sell to - either internally or if you don't have it internally you sell to younger people overseas, but that assumes that the younger people overseas aren't buying their own self-produced "stuff".

Trump is simply taking a sledgehammer to that process, forcing the americans to buy from elsewhere/internally and the chinese to find another market to sell to.
Click to expand...

So the point in all of this is that the egg is getting broken (the economy is getting restructured), he's just doing it in the messiest/most orangutan/not giving the slightest fcuk way possible.

But the scalpel's never been his instrument of choice, has it?
 
Point three, because why the hell not:

Is anyone, literally anyone surprised by this? Trump using the sledgehammer approach rather than the scalpel? Is that shocking? Are people SERIOUSLY shocked by all of this?

The notion that he was ever going to use any other approach at all is just laughable.

The only question is how hard he's going to swing the thing. That's it. That is literally the only uncertainty here.
 
over9k said:
More to it. The goal's to get the energy intensive stuff like manufacturing back on U.S soil, right?

So there's an increase in the price of the imported competition and a reduction in input costs ;)


True over the short term but that's just the shorter term supply side. Let me be a bit more specific with what I'm getting at though:


What I'm trying to get everyone to focus on here is not necessarily economic growth/contraction but rather structure. It is highly unlikely you're going to restructure an economy in any kind of significant way over anything other than the very long term without making at least a little bit of a meal of it.

War is an excellent example of this - when the powers that be end up needing to put an economy on a war footing (so restructure it for war) they always, always, always make at least a bit of a mess in the process. It just comes with the territory - decisions made in real time are almost never perfect. There are almost always unforeseen consequences/teething problems and it often takes quite some time to get, say, a B-29 production line up and running properly.

Here's a direct quote from an article just to give an example:

"Bell-Atlanta (Marietta)

Located in Marietta, Georgia, about 20 miles northwest of Atlanta, the plant covered an enormous 3.96 million square feet, making it the largest dedicated to B-29 production. However, despite its size and potential, the Bell-Atlanta Plant faced numerous challenges that hindered its production output.

Construction of the plant took place from 1942 to 1943, with an investment of $47 million in taxpayer dollars towards the plant, its equipment, and adjacent runways. The plant occupied more than twice the area of the Renton or Wichita plants, yet it experienced problems from the start, including an inadequate workforce. Despite these challenges, the Bell-Atlanta Plant eventually started producing B-29s and B-29Bs, but the journey was far from smooth.

The shortage of materials and Bell’s relative lack of experience building large aircraft combined with poor communication between Bell and Boeing made it difficult for the plant to get off the ground.

By the end of 1944, 17,200 workers were employed at Plant #6, working two nine-hour shifts, seven days a week. The labor force peaked at 27,000 in the spring of 1945.

By the end of the war, 668 Superfortresses had left the Marietta plant, a far cry from the 1,200 originally ordered".



So to use an analogy, if you want to make an omelette you're going to break a few eggs, right?

Well, have you ever heard the phrase "using a sledgehammer to crack an egg" referring to someone doing something in what you might describe as the messiest/over the top/blunt instrument way possible?

Yeah well trump's been using the sledgehammer, hasn't he?
Click to expand...
I get it. But it could have been done a different way. I don't think this method will work and the damage to the USA will be difficult to recover from.
 
Knobby22 said:
But it could have been done a different way.
Click to expand...
Yeah well they didn't elect the person that was going to use the scalpel did they lol

I heard fantastic quote about americans the other day, turns out it was actually winston churchill that said it:

"You can always rely on the americans to do the right thing... AFTER they've tried everything else".
 
DannyB0000 said:
Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from new tariffs
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/12/trump-exempts-phones-computers-chips-tariffs-apple-dell.html?__source=iosappshare|com.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard
Click to expand...
@DannyB0000 Perhaps the penny has started to drop or he has been hit excessively hard with a baseball bat that more and more it is the American public who are the losers in this game he is playing.
Though I don't think that he really cares about the population just his ego and "magnificent" hair.
Blah blah..........
 
Knobby22 said:
It means lowering of output and recession.
It means clowns are steering the good ship USA.
They were trusted. Now they are not.
Click to expand...
not necessarily remember Biden depleted the Strategic Reserve , IF the US goes to war it will need that reserve nearly full

talk about price manipulation

now a low oil price hurts most US producers , so expect oil to recover a little ( maybe in a month or two ) ( sadly none of my oil targets are cheap enough yet .. but MAYBE WDS will slide a bit more )
 
divs4ever said:

Trump Exempts Computers, Handsets, Chips From Reciprocal Tariff Blitz​


Trump Exempts Computers, Handsets, Chips From Reciprocal Tariff Blitz | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com

and here we are

winners being picked again , will China block the export of these ?
Click to expand...
@divs4ever Wow talk about doing backflips and summersaults.
The Trumpet must be practising as an acrobat for Barnum and Bailey.
Of course the next question is will Mr China agree and allow the export of these goods, or will he just decide to say "Get over it, Sunshine".
 
TimeISmoney said:
It's the mind of a 5-year-old playing with dangerous politics.

China should be telling Donald, you have no more cards to play, give up while you can.
Click to expand...
@TimeISmoney Most generous of you to suggest that The Trumpet is acting like a 5 year old. In my opinion more as a 3 year old who has just learnt to say no, and everyone world wide suffers.
 
farmerge said:
@divs4ever Wow talk about doing backflips and summersaults.
The Trumpet must be practising as an acrobat for Barnum and Bailey.
Of course the next question is will Mr China agree and allow the export of these goods, or will he just decide to say "Get over it, Sunshine".
Click to expand...
BUT , BUT , BUT the US is restricting the export of chips ( and chip technology ) to that very country

ironic isn't it

this tells us Chinese tech is 'good enough ' for the US to buy and use

China has the US by the electronic manufacturing short and curlies

i expect China to absolutely develop better stuff , but keep that at home and for friends ( BRICS )

remember China largely controls the critical minerals as well so the US ( and others ) will have to find and extract and PROCESS their own ,to get the quantities they need to be independent of China

educational times
 


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