Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

US Election 2024 : Stock and Economic Comment

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DannyB0000 said:
If Trump starts a trade war with the EU and China, I predict inflation will get worse in America. The FED will be forced to keep hiking rates until there’s a deep recession in that country. So much for make America great again.
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inflation was always the outcome ( and at least double the current official figures )

how much more before the 'official recession.depression'

but as the Chinese pointed out nearly a decade back the US needs to fix/rebuild a LOT of infrastructure , IF that happens it is possible it can catch up to China and India in a decade or two

the Harris option just led to more patches over the existing decay , Trump has a small chance of revitalizing the US , but maybe not within the next four years ( maybe Vance runs for President in 2028 and keep the momentum going )

the US is in a real mess , the only quick outcome would be an economic collapse , anything else will need a LOT of effort and time
 
Knobby22 said:
The Fed won’t raise rates because Trump will be taking over the Fed as promised. He won’t allow a rate rise.

Really though this is a big experiment.

No one knows what will happen when the tarriffs take place.
Maybe , as there won’t be any fiscal relief for the ordinary citizens, there will be a recession with high inflation?

Or maybe the inflation will be limited to particular manufactured goods but other items such as food and fuel gets cheaper?

Will be interesting to watch.
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How else is the Fed going to keep inflation under control without raising rates ?. I guarantee you the EU and other countries will hit back with Tariffs of their own and consumers will end up paying more for goods, the US won't have things their own way. But only time tell how things play out.
 
Sean K said:
Looks like it's bad for gold.

I thought the theory was that Harris was just going to spend, spend, spend, thereby kicking the debt can down the road and therefore be longer term good for gold.

A Trump win, I didn't know. Looks like short term negative.
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Trumps predicted spending was nearly double that of Harris neither party are talking about the debt problem at some point the bond market will force the issue.

Trump's spending and tariffs (if he gets his way) will likely fuel inflation, could be a plus for stock markets at least short term depending on where the cash goes.
 
IFocus said:
Trumps predicted spending was nearly double that of Harris neither party are talking about the debt problem at some point the bond market will force the issue.

Trump's spending and tariffs (if he gets his way) will likely fuel inflation, could be a plus for stock markets at least short term depending on where the cash goes.
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No doubt The Trumpet will be blowing his horn long and loud this time also.
But a clear winner it appears.
Now we have 3 mad men on the world stage, Putrid, Rocket Man and Trumpet.
 
Kevin Rudd is busy this morning.

Kevin Rudd deletes X posts critical of Donald Trump

Australia’s Ambassador to the US Kevin Rudd has removed past negative comments about Donald Trump from his private X account since the Republican candidate’s election win.
DFAT deputy secretary Elly Lawson said Mr Rudd’s private office had issued a statement that “in his previous role as head of an independent US based think tank, Mr Rudd was a regular commentator on American politics”.

“Out of respect for the office of President of the United States, and following the election of President Trump, Ambassador Rudd has now removed these past commentaries from his personal website and social media channels,” she said, reading from the statement.

“This has been done to eliminate the possibility of such comments being misconstrued as reflecting his positions as ambassador and by extension, the views of the Australian Government.

“Ambassador Rudd looks forward to working with President Trump and his team to continue strengthening the US-Australia alliance.”

They included a 2020 tweet from his personal account, @MrKrudd, disparaging the former president. “The most destructive president in history,” he said at the time.

“He drags America and democracy through the mud. He thrives on fomenting, not healing, division. He abuses Christianity, church and bible to justify violence.

“All aided and abetted by Murdoch’s FoxNews Network in America which feeds this.”

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The Kevin Rudd tweet which has been deleted.

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The deleted post on X on Kevin Rudd's personal account..

Labor’s pile-ons undermine PM, Rudd charm offensive

Anthony Albanese is preparing a diplomatic full-court press to shore-up the nation’s interests amid fears Donald Trump’s America First 2.0 agenda and looming trade war with China will undermine Labor’s economic, climate change, defence and foreign policies.

With Mr Trump reclaiming the presidency and the Republicans on track to control both houses of congress, Australian diplomatic and security officials have been instructed to execute a Plan-B strategy to solidify the country’s relationship with an incoming Trump administration.

The Australian can reveal that days out from the election, senior cabinet ministers were “very confident” Kamala Harris would beat Mr Trump and that it would be “business as usual” for Australia.

But despite the optimism in government ranks, Treasury, climate change, defence, national security and diplomatic officials were ordered in recent months to prepare scenario modelling and analysis of the impacts for Australia if Mr Trump reclaimed the White House.

Given the longstanding US-Australia relationship, Mr Albanese would be expected to be among the first world leaders to speak with a victorious Mr Trump.

There is anxiety in Labor ranks about relations with a Trump administration after Mr Albanese and his ambassador to the US, former prime minister Kevin Rudd, made historic disparaging comments about Mr Trump. A senior ALP source said the Albanese government would focus on maintaining public support for the US-Australia relationship and keeping the alliance strong.

Coalition figures said the US election showed incumbency was damaging in a high-inflationary environment, that the “abortion scare campaign didn’t work”, and that Americans outside capital cities and from minority groups had come out in force for Mr Trump.

Mr Albanese, who described Joe Biden’s 2020 election victory over Mr Trump as a “triumph of hope over fear”, said in 2017 the billionaire “scares the sh.t out of me” and that he would deal with him “with trepidation”. Dr Rudd, who despite efforts to build relationships with Republicans may struggle to remain long-term as Australia’s top official in Washington, previously described Mr Trump as “nuts”, a “traitor to the West” and “the most destructive president in history”. Labor ministers have labelled Mr Trump as “barking mad”, “a sore loser” and “a big baby”.

Labor now faces a drawn out campaign to convince Mr Trump to exempt Australia from his threatened 10 to 20 per cent “universal tariff” on all imports, while bracing for the impact of his promised 60 per cent tariff hike on goods from China.

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Prime Minister Anthony Albanese with former Prime Minister, Dr Kevin Rudd. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Gary Ramage
Wong says government ‘confident’ Rudd will stay

On Thursday, Foreign Affairs Minister Penny Wong said Australia should not be “surprised if things change” under a second Trump administration.

Senator Wong said the Albanese government was “confident” that Dr Rudd would “continue to do an excellent job” in his role.

“It doesn’t matter whether you’re Liberal, Labor, Green, whatever – Australia first,” she told ABC AM. “And that’s certainly the approach I hope political leaders will take in relation to backing in our ambassador and the government as we engage with the new administration.”

Senator Wong was asked about what impact a potential 10-20 per cent tariff on Australian exports to the US would have, as promised by Mr Trump. “We’ve managed to avoid some tariffs on steel during the first presidency through diplomacy,” she said. “President Trump has run a campaign based on change. One of those is the one you identify.

“He’s made it clear he’s going to do things differently, so we shouldn’t be surprised if things change. But equally, Australia should be confident in ourselves, in our place in the world and our ability to work together to deliver on our interests.”

Senator Wong said the US-Australia alliance was “big enough and strong enough to deal with differences” that may soon emerge.

“It’s an alliance which has, through its history, there have been times where leaders and governments have disagreed,” she said.

“Prime Minister Howard refused additional troop requests in 2003 and 2004.

“The previous Trump administration withdrew from global commitments on climate. We did not.

“What I would say is we will continue to work with the new administration. The alliance is big enough and strong enough to deal with differences. Ultimately, we share a high degree of alignment in strategic objectives.”

With the origins of the AUKUS nuclear submarine pact and a reboot of the Quad security dialogue tracing back to the end of the first Trump administration, there are hopes Mr Trump will continue to back the key security and diplomatic arrangements.

The government is concerned that Mr Trump will pull out of the Paris Agreement for a second time and use his expected majority in congress to unwind Mr Biden’s clean energy-focused Inflation Reduction Act. The government, which has tied its clean energy and critical minerals push to Biden administration policies, is likely to rethink the scale and timing of its 2035 emissions reduction target.

Mr Albanese – whose charm offensive to stabilise ties with China has been questioned by US officials – will head to the APEC and G20 summits in South America next week where Mr Trump’s win will dominate the talks. Chinese President Xi Jinping and Mr Biden are expected to attend the summits in Peru and Brazil.

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Joe Biden bids farewell to Anthony Albanese at the end of the Quad summit in Delaware in September. Picture: AFP

Mr Albanese on Wednesday said “the election of a new President of the United States is always a moment of profound consequence for the world, for our region and for Australia”.

“Our government will seek and build a strong partnership with whoever the American people choose as their next President. The alliance between Australia and the United States has always been bigger than individuals. It has stood tall through generations of governments from both sides of the aisle and we will work together as allies,” Mr Albanese said.

Mr Dutton said it was important for Mr Albanese and Dr Rudd to “be working day and night to establish those links and ties and deepen relationships and start new ones” ahead of Mr Trump’s inauguration in January.

The Opposition Leader said when the Coalition negotiated AUKUS with the US and Britain it was “in our mutual and collective best interests, particularly in an uncertain time”. “Whatever the outcome, we know … our relationship with the United States will endure, it will strengthen, and we will make sure that we work very closely with the incoming administration,” Mr Dutton said.

US ambassador to Australia Caroline Kennedy, who is due to leave her post in January, flew back to Canberra on the weekend to reassure Australians the relationship would remain staunch regardless of who won the election.

The government had been preparing for the prospect of a Trump win. Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles and Foreign Minister Penny Wong met with Mr Trump’s former secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, during visits to the US in recent months, while Senator Wong met with former House speaker Kevin McCarthy who is tipped to become Mr Trump’s chief-of-staff.

Dr Rudd has also been strengthening ties with Republicans in congress to shore-up the AUKUS pact. Mr Trump’s daughter-in-law, Lara Trump, said last week that Dr Rudd’s past comments about the former president were “nasty” and “maybe we want to choose somebody else”.

Former prime minister Scott Morrison, who struck a positive relationship with Mr Trump in office, said Labor would “have to be on its game” dealing with the returned president.
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well if Trump splashes tariffs all over China , Australia is liable to be collateral damage ( China will trade more in yuan and rupees )

sure a few companies will be boosted by an increasingly protectionist US , but Australia is a global sandpit ( and the US isn't the whole world )
 
Sean K said:
I doubt Trump or his staff will talk to him, so his job is untenable.
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Completely untenable. He cannot walk back from that and the excuse he was talking as a private citizen will not cut it. Withdrawing/sacking him would not look good so the only real alternative is for him to promptly resign. I doubt his ego would let him do that.
 
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