EU - the Forgotten Market

[mullokintyre]

EU continues to struggle.
Its been a steady decline since this time last year.
Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

Meanwhile, France has had its ccredit rating downgraded from stable to negative by Moody's.
Mick

 

[qldfrog]

Meanwhile, France has had its ccredit rating downgraded from stable to negative by Moody's.
Mick
View attachment 186589

France is an abominable mess after nearly 50y of socialism and globalist policies from all sides: Biden like, there is a communist tainted feeling in the population similar to the levels which doomed Argentina and Chile.
A hatred of upper class and a leveling by the bottom aided by a full scale submersion from the poorest and worst of african jails and asylum..a dumping ground.
They are moving well past taxation/seizure of income toward taxation of assets!!
and people find it ok, they are rich, they can afford....
Locals in complete denial
A third of the parliament is a blend of Islamist and far left /green deranged coalition and every previous leading sector is gone but maybe perfume and champagne.
In the last 20y: weapons/missiles, aeronautical industry, wineries, pharma, high speed trains, nuclear, space/rockets went from leaders to gone, and France is now not even food self sufficient, for the first time ever.
The only sector left is tourism with better service i found, but with the total collapse of law and order , it is a matter of time tourists become aware and add it to the no go country list
I cry, the debt explodes,and as the German economy plunges, they will not be able to plug the french sinking basket.
How long can the IMF let this go?

 

[Value Collector]

France is an abominable mess after nearly 50y of socialism and globalist policies from all sides: Biden like, there is a communist tainted feeling in the population similar to the levels which doomed Argentina and Chile.
A hatred of upper class and a leveling by the bottom aided by a full scale submersion from the poorest and worst of african jails and asylum..a dumping ground.
They are moving well past taxation/seizure of income toward taxation of assets!!
and people find it ok, they are rich, they can afford....
Locals in complete denial
A third of the parliament is a blend of Islamist and far left /green deranged coalition and every previous leading sector is gone but maybe perfume and champagne.
In the last 20y: weapons/missiles, aeronautical industry, wineries, pharma, high speed trains, nuclear, space/rockets went from leaders to gone, and France is now not even food self sufficient, for the first time ever.
The only sector left is tourism with better service i found, but with the total collapse of law and order , it is a matter of time tourists become aware and add it to the no go country list
I cry, the debt explodes,and as the German economy plunges, they will not be able to plug the french sinking basket.
How long can the IMF let this go?

Oh frog you are an eternal pessimist and ultimate fear monger of change .

 

[Value Hunter]

Oh frog you are an eternal pessimist and ultimate fear monger of change .

the west is in gradual decline. Roman empire 2.0

 

[qldfrog]

Oh frog you are an eternal pessimist and ultimate fear monger of change .

I not live in Disneyland, sorry, and not on narratives but facts..
harsh is life indeed..
Currently comparing to Italy ...and what a difference just a few PMs can make..and this is Italy as a comparison....
I do not like change for change...

 

[Value Collector]

the west is in gradual decline. Roman empire 2.0

I don’t even know what it means when you say the west is in gradual decline, it seems to be going from strength to strength from what I see.

I don’t see it decline at all, I still plenty of money flowing around and plenty of ways to earn some for yourself, and plenty of ways to spend it enjoyably, tech is moving forward.

I am sure there were many elderly people that lived in the 1980’s and 1990’s that spent their whole elder years worrying about the future of their nation, yet now they are dead and we are all still here having a good time.

Just play the hand you are felt and stop worrying, you will be dead soon enough and the world will carry on just fine.

 

[Value Collector]

harsh is life indeed..

Really, where are you living, life isn’t harsh, it’s never been easier, you need to read a book called “factfullness” it will really help you

 

[Value Hunter]

I don’t even know what it means when you say the west is in gradual decline, it seems to be going from strength to strength from what I see.

Stop extrapolating your own situation onto the general population. Just because you or I are doing okay it does not mean the average person is doing well. Lot's of pensioners eating baked beans out of a tin, plenty of university students sharing a room and graduating up to their eyeballs in HECS debt into a weak job market. Plenty of jobs where working conditions have declined over time and pay has not kept up with inflation. House prices have outpaced wages for decades now. In Australia GDP per capita adjusted for CPI measured in U.S.A. dollars (the world's reserve currency) is now lower that it was in 2012. The percentage of homeowners has been declining. Wealth inequality has been increasing. Booming migration has led to a situation where there is overcrowding in major cities, strain on infrastructure and 100 - 300 people on average applying for every entry level job. The comments above apply to Australia but the story is similar in most western countries to varying extents.

And that is not even talking about the issues regarding moral decay. For example good luck to any young man looking for a chaste young virgin wife in the west. What is likely available to you is a slightly overweight 30 year old feminist woman with tattoos.

Most western countries have a birth rate well below the replacement rate of birth and are merely plugging the gap with migration. Filling Australia with Indian migrants, Indonesian migrants etc will just slowly (give it another 50 - 100 years) turn us into a 3rd world country.

These people escape their home country and eventually turn their new host country into the place they left. Countries are the way they are because of the culture of the people that live there. Japan is civilized because its full of Japanese. India is the way it is because its full of Indians.

 

[Value Collector]

Stop extrapolating your own situation onto the general population. Just because you or I are doing okay it does not mean the average person is doing well. Lot's of pensioners eating baked beans out of a tin, plenty of university students sharing a room and graduating up to their eyeballs in HECS debt into a weak job market. Plenty of jobs where working conditions have declined over time and pay has not kept up with inflation. House prices have outpaced wages for decades now. In Australia GDP per capita adjusted for CPI measured in U.S.A. dollars (the world's reserve currency) is now lower that it was in 2012. The percentage of homeowners has been declining. Wealth inequality has been increasing. Booming migration has led to a situation where there is overcrowding in major cities, strain on infrastructure and 100 - 300 people on average applying for every entry level job. The comments above apply to Australia but the story is similar in most western countries to varying extents.

And that is not even talking about the issues regarding moral decay. For example good luck to any young man looking for a chaste young virgin wife in the west. What is likely available to you is a slightly overweight 30 year old feminist woman with tattoos.

Most western countries have a birth rate well below the replacement rate of birth and are merely plugging the gap with migration. Filling Australia with Indian migrants, Indonesian migrants etc will just slowly (give it another 50 - 100 years) turn us into a 3rd world country.

These people escape their home country and eventually turn their new host country into the place they left. Countries are the way they are because of the culture of the people that live there. Japan is civilized because its full of Japanese. India is the way it is because its full of Indians.

Compare the average persons situation now, to that of 50 years ago, and I think you will find things are a lot better.

Sure some metrics have changed, but over all people are doing much better.

Low birth rates are a good thing, the fact that people can have 2 kids and expect that both will survive is a far cry from the past where you had to have 3 and bury 1 to have 2.

More kids are surviving to adult hood than ever, people are living longer and staying healthier longer.

I think maybe you need to read the book I recommend to frog, it’s called factfulness.

Your last paragraph is just racist, so I will recommend a second book for that one it’s called guns germs and steel. It actually explains all the factors about why countries have developed they way they have, you would be surprised.

 

[qldfrog]

Really, where are you living, life isn’t harsh, it’s never been easier, you need to read a book called “factfullness” it will really help you

Read it and a good read indeed
but as opposed to you, i
- know how to read number and stats
- do not live in my own bubble and for my own sake only
- travel elsewhere than in Disney world
-And above all care about others from my tribe aka western world.
Do you have children?

 

[qldfrog]

Compare the average persons situation now, to that of 50 years ago, and I think you will find things are a lot better.

Sure some metrics have changed, but over all people are doing much better.

Low birth rates are a good thing, the fact that people can have 2 kids and expect that both will survive is a far cry from the past where you had to have 3 and bury 1 to have 2.

More kids are surviving to adult hood than ever, people are living longer and staying healthier longer.

I think maybe you need to read the book I recommend to frog, it’s called factfulness.

Your last paragraph is just racist, so I will recommend a second book for that one it’s called guns germs and steel. It actually explains all the factors about why countries have developed they way they have, you would be surprised.

Such a great reader... i read both and still have both them home .they are indeed must read, but a short visit to Rome as i do now might bring some light.
but better that reading i live and have lived, and again, not on a cosy protected life, away from the 3rd world..racist term nowadays
You will have no issue blaming greek or italian for a work ethics i am sure, Aussies ironically are, but if i say a religion mandates a month per year not physically fit to work, and stop life 5 times a day for prayer, it is racism, not facts,?

 

[qldfrog]

Such a great reader... i read both and still have both them home .they are indeed must read, but a short visit to Rome as i do now might bring some light.
but better that reading i live and have lived, and again, not on a cosy protected life, away from the 3rd world..racist term nowadays
You will have no issue blaming greek or italian for a work ethics i am sure, Aussies ironically are, but if i say a religion mandates a month per year not physically fit to work, and stop life 5 times a day for prayer, it is racism, not facts,?

And why do i bother again..

 

[Value Collector]

Read it and a good read indeed
but as opposed to you, i
- know how to read number and stats
- do not live in my own bubble and for my own sake only
- travel elsewhere than in Disney world
-And above all care about others from my tribe aka western world.
Do you have children?

I see the whole world as my tribe.

Yeah I travel, right now I am in Switzerland, maybe you need some Disney in your life .

I don’t have children, but have nieces and nephews.

 

[Value Collector]

And why do i bother again..

You keep saying that I am sheltered, I travel quite alot, and as I have said before spent time in third world countries when I was in the army.

Now I generally pick fun places to travel too.

I wouldn’t label any nationality as having poor work ethic, I mean Greeks and Italians built the snow hydro system.

There are lazy Aussies, and hard working Aussies. I wouldn’t say Aussies are better or worse than others we are all individuals

 

[Value Collector]

1, , but if i say a religion mandates a month per year not physically fit to work,

Have you ever tried to book an Australian Tradie in Australia between late December and Early Jan? That month is basically written off because of Christmas and new years.

But yeah, if its just the religious holidays of brown people that bother you, yeah I would say that’s racist.

Not to mention that parts of Canada and the USA close down not for religion but just because of winter, for a couple of months.

Other parts of the world have annual activity based on harvest cycles of crops, or tourist seasons it’s not just religions that mandate when work gets done.

But I am atheist, I respect people’s rights to have a religion, but I think they are all silly, Christianity is no less silly than any other religion, but holidays are important, and if we got rid of the religious holidays, we would just make up some other reason to take a few weeks off each year.

and stop life 5 times a day for prayer, it is racism, not facts,?

As I said I am in Switzerland at the moment, where most businesses and offices close between Noon and 1.30 for lunch, I mean totally close different cultures have different ideas about when they should work, who cares.

 

[divs4ever]

Low birth rates are a good thing, the fact that people can have 2 kids and expect that both will survive is a far cry from the past where you had to have 3 and bury 1 to have 2.

that depends on who you are

to a tax-dependent growth-driven government this trend is truly alarming factor in the government.
the trend to 'empire-building ' and they edge towards the biggest single employer making business truly alarmed and anxious ( of extra regulations and interference )

BTW eventually all children are buried ( under the currency technology levels )

that is why i invested in PFP

 

[Value Collector]

that depends on who you are

to a tax-dependent growth-driven government this trend is truly alarming factor in the government.
the trend to 'empire-building ' and they edge towards the biggest single employer making business truly alarmed and anxious ( of extra regulations and interference )

BTW eventually all children are buried ( under the currency technology levels )

that is why i invested in PFP

What matters most is productivity, if GDP/output can keep growing even as population stabilises or slowly declines then the tax base should continue to grow, even as the number of people the government services declines.

A lot of government spending goes towards dealing with population growth, eg building new schools, hospitals, expanding highways etc etc etc.

If population stabilises a lot of this growth spending goes away.

 

[divs4ever]

What matters most is productivity, if GDP/output can keep growing even as population stabilises or slowly declines then the tax base should continue to grow, even as the number of people the government services declines.

A lot of government spending goes towards dealing with population growth, eg building new schools, hospitals, expanding highways etc etc etc.

If population stabilises a lot of this growth spending goes away.

well that depends on what you call productivity .. after being in several ( pointless ) 'health and safety ' ( who couldn't even tell you what the fire-alarm sounds like and way worse distortions of information ) lectures ,and site inductions which never address basic safety issues

given the two current hospital extensions ( both car-parks proudly occupied by the CFMEU ) i am not sure how much 'productivity ' is occurring there either ( they have been at those for years now .. looks more like a money laundry .. or was it an election campaign )

why new schools ? isn't the population decreasing at the younger end of the scale ( and the population gravitating towards the cities )

in fact the high school i attended ( occasionally ) in Brisbane , put out a plea to stop it closing down ( which must have amused my school-mates who tried to burn it three times and blow it up at least once .

BTW the population is NOT stabilizing it is desperately trying to increase immigration

your theory is nice , but in operation it is going abysmally

take one 'inter-city ' rail line , 100 years in the planning/building .. but forgot to train enough rail employees to keep the service regular and that train-line was a whole eight kilometers long and had three new stations .. so now the local criminals 'can jump the train' and ( hopefully ) steal less cars ( and there are three new stations to get mugged at )

 

[Value Collector]

well that depends on what you call productivity .. after being in several ( pointless ) 'health and safety ' ( who couldn't even tell you what the fire-alarm sounds like and way worse distortions of information ) lectures ,and site inductions which never address basic safety issues

given the two current hospital extensions ( both car-parks proudly occupied by the CFMEU ) i am not sure how much 'productivity ' is occurring there either ( they have been at those for years now .. looks more like a money laundry .. or was it an election campaign )

why new schools ? isn't the population decreasing at the younger end of the scale ( and the population gravitating towards the cities )

in fact the high school i attended ( occasionally ) in Brisbane , put out a plea to stop it closing down ( which must have amused my school-mates who tried to burn it three times and blow it up at least once .

BTW the population is NOT stabilizing it is desperately trying to increase immigration

your theory is nice , but in operation it is going abysmally

take one 'inter-city ' rail line , 100 years in the planning/building .. but forgot to train enough rail employees to keep the service regular and that train-line was a whole eight kilometers long and had three new stations .. so now the local criminals 'can jump the train' and ( hopefully ) steal less cars ( and there are three new stations to get mugged at )

By Productivity increases I mean total output of good and services increasing.

You will have to re read my post, I am saying the government spending will decrease if the population shrinks, because we won’t need new schools and hospitals and highways etc etc.

At the moment the government spends a huge amount of money each year because the population is expanding, without the population growth, tax revenue required shrinks.