Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Gold Price - Where is it heading?

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Everyone is focussing on China, but it's not just China's >1 billion population. Most of Asia is still not Chinese, and whether it's Vietnam, Thailand. South Korea, Taiwan etc, they're also right into numerology, and while China is the largest economy in Asia, together the rest of Asia is larger.

Countries like Vietnam may be more similar to China in terms of numerology, but even in countries like Thailand with a completely unrelated culture and language, the same numerology patterns exist - 4 is still generally not listed as a building floor in Thailand, etc.

Plus, Western people, being aware of the Asian numerology, will expect buying enthusiasm when $3,000 is reached, so will themselves buy, making them act in the exact same way. The impact on the market is almost the same as if those Western people believed in the superstitions as wholeheartedly as the Chinese who actually believe in it, even though they are being strategic rather than superstitious (although being strategic rather than superstitious they will sell slightly below the superstitious targets, etc, giving them a slight advantage).
 
There's only been about four days of two down days in a row the past couple of months. Been an incredible run. Must be outside the upper limits of the Bollinger.

I've called for some profit taking an imminent pause, but every time it's dipped, it's been bought up.

Uber drivers must be on to it now.


Screenshot 2025-02-12 at 23.01.44.png
 

South Korea’s Mint Halts Gold Bar Sales as Supply Tightens​

South Korea’s Mint has temporarily suspended sales of gold bars, adding to signs of widespread tightness across markets for physical precious metals.
The Korea Minting and Security Printing Corp. said it’s facing problems with sourcing supply and managing demand, and that it will try and resume sales as soon as possible, according to a notice on its website.
Read More: Investors Are Buying Gold From Vending Machines in South Korea
The move comes as traders worldwide rush to deliver bullion to the US ahead of potential tariffs on the metal. Prices for gold on New York’s Comex have surged above international benchmarks, resulting in unprecedented tightness and record outflows from London vaults.
The precious metal has made fresh highs in 2025, as growing trepidation surrounding US President Donald Trump’s disruptive tariff announcements drives demand for haven assets. Investors are trying to get a read on the potential implications for the global economy, reinforcing bullion’s role as a store of value in uncertain times.

 
TimeISmoney said:

South Korea’s Mint Halts Gold Bar Sales as Supply Tightens​

South Korea’s Mint has temporarily suspended sales of gold bars, adding to signs of widespread tightness across markets for physical precious metals.
The Korea Minting and Security Printing Corp. said it’s facing problems with sourcing supply and managing demand, and that it will try and resume sales as soon as possible, according to a notice on its website.
Read More: Investors Are Buying Gold From Vending Machines in South Korea
The move comes as traders worldwide rush to deliver bullion to the US ahead of potential tariffs on the metal. Prices for gold on New York’s Comex have surged above international benchmarks, resulting in unprecedented tightness and record outflows from London vaults.
The precious metal has made fresh highs in 2025, as growing trepidation surrounding US President Donald Trump’s disruptive tariff announcements drives demand for haven assets. Investors are trying to get a read on the potential implications for the global economy, reinforcing bullion’s role as a store of value in uncertain times.

Click to expand...

Seems to be happening everywhere.

Screenshot 2025-02-13 at 10.49.47.png
 
Sean K said:
Seems to be happening everywhere.

View attachment 193152
Click to expand...
The great thing about news of countries and banks running out of gold is that it doesn’t even have to be true ! Gold has often traded significantly on the perception that the sky will fall in should an entity not be within touching distance of it’s gold reserves. With the outflows from BRICS and others in to the US the gold reserves move come closer in to the orbit and influence of Trump. He makes the rules.

It will be interesting to follow any of the US administration’s statements of gold. They have upturned every other market !

gg
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
It will be interesting to follow any of the US administration’s statements of gold. They have upturned every other market !
Click to expand...
Scott Bessent about 1 month before the election -


".......I think we are in a long-term bull market in Gold I think

we're seeing Reserve accumulation by central banks I follow it closely it's

my biggest position and even I was surpris the other day when the Central Bank of Poland came out and said that

they want to take their gold reserves to 20% ..."
 
Sean K said:
US is valuing it's gold at $42 an ounce,
Click to expand...
You don't need ducati - you have me.
Isn't that just a redundant historical relic? Without googling wasn't it Roosevelt who confiscated the citizens' gold @ $35/oz. Then, when he'd got it all, revalued it by decree to $42 thus souping up Treasury to fund a 'New Deal'? How does that price persist in any meaningful way?
 
finicky said:
You don't need ducati - you have me.
Isn't that just a redundant historical relic? Without googling wasn't it Roosevelt who confiscated the citizens' gold @ $35/oz. Then, when he'd got it all, revalued it by decree to $42 thus souping up Treasury to fund a 'New Deal'? How does that price persist in any meaningful way?
Click to expand...

I've got no idea, that's why I'm asking people smarter than me like you and the rest of the gang.
 
No it was to $35 (I am googling now)

"What was the gold revaluation in 1933?
It also allowed the President to change the gold content of the US dollar by proclamation. Immediately following its passage, Roosevelt changed the gold content of the dollar from $20.67 to $35 per ounce, thereby devaluing US federal reserve notes, which were backed on gold."
 
AI Overview
Learn more

In 1973, gold was revalued to $42 per ounce as part of a US dollar devaluation, which was a result of the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system, where currencies were pegged to a fixed gold price; this devaluation was intended to address the growing trade deficit and stabilize the dollar against other currencies by making it cheaper relative to gold, effectively raising the price of gold to $42 per ounce.

Key points about this event:
  • Smithsonian Agreement:
    Prior to the $42 revaluation, the Nixon administration had signed the Smithsonian Agreement in 1971, which already devalued the dollar slightly, raising the gold price to $38 per ounce.

  • Market pressure:
    However, speculation and market pressure continued to drive the dollar down, leading to the further devaluation in 1973 and the $42 gold price.

  • End of fixed exchange rates:
    This event marked a significant step towards the current system of floating exchange rates where currencies are not directly tied to a fixed gold price.
 
Thanks @Sean K for mentioning the $USD being again tied to the Gold Price and the consequences. I have mentioned this on a few occasions in the past going back from January to the beginning of the thread.

@ducati916 will be able to provide us with toobs on this topic, but basically what @finicky gained from duckduck or googling it is a good summary less his greatly appreciated opinion on the matter. I seem to also remember reading a Wikipedia article on the topic.

There is a possibility that Scott Kenneth Homer Bessent the present Secretary of the Treasury in the US may look at it. I ran it past both the $USD and the Gold committees at the Ross River Hotel and although being a possibility they made the following points.

  • It would require a "brave" person to make such a move and looking at the origin/etymology of the word brave, the Donald is such a person.
  • It is an easy decision to make, like an omelette, but difficult to undo if it doesn't give the desired effect.
  • The more I write on this topic, the more complicated it gets, basically it is swings, roundabouts, currency, BRICS, The Donald, fiscal, monetary, those in favour now being surprised by the outcome , etc etc.
  • Quite a big topic.
I'd suggest if we get bogged down in a discussion here on this thread that it may be worthwhile starting a thread purely on it. Billions of pixels have been spent on the topic to which I await @ducati's or other member's contribution. I prefer as before just to mention it in passing. It is one messy topic.

I have for my own sake looked in to it and imo gold will initially go up in price in $AUD if it happens and then ... who knows.

gg
 
Snap @Sean K . I didn't realise you'd posted on this as I was a screenshotting, copying and pasting on gold.


Should there not be a great change before the Gold Price closes tomorrow morning for the weekend I thought I'd do a summary for the week.

With the Donald in power nothing surprises much on the geopolitical front. The fundamental press has been mainly focussing on the move of gold stores from outside the US to inside in anticipation of tariffs on the metal. This has caused considerable shortages in oversea stores which is good for the price.

Technically there has been considerable support for gold with large volumes supporting gold on any retracement. This is easily seen on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday on the chart. Efforts to break through $2950 are anticipated next week.

I've also added a $AUD/$USD chart as this affects our buying of gold in Australia, the $AUD going up relative to the $USD makes it cheaper to buy and gives less profit on selling. Those holding e.g. PMGOLD because of this may notice very little change in their holding value this week because of this.

1739508443151.png



1739508621697.png


gg
 
qldfrog said:
A lot of it compounding with AUD slight revival vs USD
Click to expand...
The big question is why?
What did the market see that caused the players to dump gold and silver in such a big way?
I struggled to find much that wasn't already known, more likely a good bit of the old "taking profits for the weekend" syndrome.
Still happy to keep trading PM stocks and holding real PM's.
Mick
 
mullokintyre said:
The big question is why?
What did the market see that caused the players to dump gold and silver in such a big way?
I struggled to find much that wasn't already known, more likely a good bit of the old "taking profits for the weekend" syndrome.
Still happy to keep trading PM stocks and holding real PM's.
Mick
Click to expand...
Profit taking would be a good reason for gold to drop from close to $3000 to $2880. A 4% drop is healthy given the gains recently. There is an outside chance it could presage a further larger fall. Given the strengthening of the $AUD v the $USD any falls next week may be an opportunity for buyers who missed out.

gg
 

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