Inflation

[over9k]

Glad I asked you.
Admittedly, I'm pretty lazy that the option of not doing anything was already high.

Yeah it's been a WILD recovery:

It is difficult to make any decisions with the Trump rapid action coursing through all fundamentals. One of his aims was to have a strong $USD which seems difficult to imagine given his other decisions.

gg

But it's because of this.

I've made *no* trades in like 3 weeks just FYI.

 

[over9k]

Musing:

Libs/dutton seem to be increasingly likely (overwhelmingly likely) to win the coming election. Markets will obviously be pricing this in to, you know, everything.

 

[over9k]

What would happen, if China and North Korea went all in with Russia, to take on Europe?

If nato actually wanted to stop the russians, it could. Think about how much of a fight the ukrainians have put up and not to take anything away from them but considering most are conscripts etc and they're fighting with the west's hand-me-down weapons then you can only imagine what a well trained and well equipped western force would do to its russian counterpart.

We have an entire generation of battle-hardened afghanistan veterans with all the best equipment in existence at their disposal. It would be a massacre.

 

[divs4ever]

Well there is also the EU nations that have been relying on US aid, not in direct monetary terms, but in the fact they have spent nothing on defence for years.

Trump highlighted it the first time he was in office and now the EU is in a position of being exposed to the Russia/Ukraine issue and having limited resources to deal with it.
As is being shown with the optical cable cuts and the lack of fire power.

What would happen, if China and North Korea went all in with Russia, to take on Europe? Does the EU have any way of countering it?

Interesting times.

some of those was what i was hinting at , add in Japan if Trump down-sized some of those military bases some nations would have a terrible economy ( all those military dudes spend some cash locally )

 

[divs4ever]

If nato actually wanted to stop the russians, it could. Think about how much of a fight the ukrainians have put up and not to take anything away from them but considering most are conscripts etc and they're fighting with the west's hand-me-down weapons then you can only imagine what a well trained and well equipped western force would do to its russian counterpart.

We have an entire generation of battle-hardened afghanistan veterans with all the best equipment in existence at their disposal. It would be a massacre.

NATO has sent all it's obsolete gear to Ukraine already , the cupboard of reserve gear is rather bare

not so important until the retired veterans have to be re-trained with the new stuff ( and all those lights and buttons and stuff )

BTW the Germans thought that as did Napoleon , in 1945 they got all the way to Berlin

 

[over9k]

NATO has sent all it's obsolete gear to Ukraine already , the cupboard of reserve gear is rather bare

not so important until the retired veterans have to be re-trained with the new stuff ( and all those lights and buttons and stuff )

BTW the Germans thought that as did Napoleon , in 1945 they got all the way to Berlin

Conquering and stopping an invasion are two very different things.

It's not a concern. Really. It's only a concern once they get stomped and realise that nukes are their only option left. Strong countries don't use nukes in the way that strong people don't use guns/knives. You only use the nuke/knife when you know you can't win the conventional fight.

 

[divs4ever]

Conquering and stopping an invasion are two very different things.

It's not a concern. Really. It's only a concern once they get stomped and realise that nukes are their only option left. Strong countries don't use nukes in the way that strong people don't use guns/knives. You only use the nuke/knife when you know you can't win the conventional fight.

so who is the only nation to use nuclear bombs in a war ?

and they did it to foil Russia from invading Japan

 

[moXJO]

Yeah it's been a WILD recovery:

View attachment 193503

But it's because of this.

I've made *no* trades in like 3 weeks just FYI.

I think I've run the upside on a lot of these stocks to the point that the juice ain't worth the squeeze. I'm seeing limited ability to run much higher right now. Where as the downside % drop could bite. Probably a short lived feeling, but it's hard to pull the trigger when everything looks expensive.

I was thinking a pause for a bit, but it's hard to tell with Trump in command.

 

[over9k]

I think I've run the upside on a lot of these stocks to the point that the juice ain't worth the squeeze. I'm seeing limited ability to run much higher right now. Where as the downside % drop could bite. Probably a short lived feeling, but it's hard to pull the trigger when everything looks expensive.

I was thinking a pause for a bit, but it's hard to tell with Trump in command.

I'm just holding. BOIL for a degen play if you want to do something risky. It runs on geopolitical tensions rising.

 

[over9k]

AUD dropped below 61 U.S a few hours ago. Recovered since but I reckon we've got maybe a month before we crack the 59's.

AUD now on a tear, comically.

 

[moXJO]

AUD now on a tear, comically.

Funnily enough I looked at the chart just after my comment and realised I needed to hedge.as it was setting up to run. Now it's just a mater of how high its going to go. I'll have to go mooch off the currency threads experienced members.

Glad I got out of palantir when I did. I don't trust that ceo.

 

[over9k]

Now it's just a mater of how high its going to go.

famous last words

 

[moXJO]

famous last words

Forex is legit my Achilles heel. Deep psychology scars from multiple ar5e handings.
Might be a short lived trade.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Sometimes you just have to take stock and look dispassionately at the situation.

Trump’s moves are contradictory in the extreme. He is neither intelligent nor well educated. He is cunning and a good negotiator but he is out of his depth atm has too many balls in the air. Inflation taking off will be the first domino to fall.

The market will punish. It is what it does.

gg

 

[divs4ever]

Sometimes you just have to take stock and look dispassionately at the situation.

Trump’s moves are contradictory in the extreme. He is neither intelligent nor well educated. He is cunning and a good negotiator but he is out of his depth atm has too many balls in the air. Inflation taking off will be the first domino to fall.

The market will punish. It is what it does.

gg

inflation was always coming back , but will it be fast , slow or denied ( like it was previously )

lucky for Trump , Joe and Kamala set such low standards any improvement in two or three areas will look like a miracle

if the US was the only nation in this mess ( or even just US and Japan ) the world could probably just muddle through but half the world ( by number of nations ) can't even be truthful on their recession status , vomiting out fudged data quarter after quarter

if Vance gets two terms as President maybe we can re-assess then , but it took them a long time to dig this grave ( way before Covid ) it will take a big effort to climb back out

Trump is shaking the tree/rattling the cage , it will take TIME to see any real improvement

AND it may not be in the ( US ) share-market investors MIGHT find better places to invest their cash ( it might be new businesses , property development , mining/resources who knows )

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Sometimes you just have to take stock and look dispassionately at the situation.

Trump’s moves are contradictory in the extreme. He is neither intelligent nor well educated. He is cunning and a good negotiator but he is out of his depth atm has too many balls in the air. Inflation taking off will be the first domino to fall.

The market will punish. It is what it does.

gg

The first market domino to fall from Trump's meddling with Musk's DOGE in the Treasury Department will be ... Treasuries unsurprisingly.

The Bond market will be punished. The AAA rating of US Bonds will disappear. The Chinese, Japanes and Europeans will sell their US bonds. Interest rates will rise.

gg

 

[divs4ever]

The first market domino to fall from Trump's meddling with Musk's DOGE in the Treasury Department will be ... Treasuries unsurprisingly.

The Bond market will be punished. The AAA rating of US Bonds will disappear. The Chinese, Japanese and Europeans will sell their US bonds. Interest rates will rise.

gg

the AAA status has been dubious/tenuous for a while ( much like the EU/UK ratings ) now the Japanese are more likely to sell-down for a different reason ( the arbitrage trade ver. 2 ) as would the ( Communist ) Chinese fearing more sanctions/currency war after the freezing of Russian assets

now of course the US has a double problem as currently they MUST sell more bonds to simply service the current debt as well as to pay for any matured bonds that aren't rolled over ( i suspect the Chinese are letting currently held bonds mature and buying gold/silver with the proceeds )

 

[Smurf1976]

inflation was always coming back

Pardon my obsession with natural gas but US domestic market gas last traded at $4.26

Prices move around day to day a bit but that's up roughly a third from a month ago when price was in the low $3 range eg $3.20 etc.

Noting that international pricing is higher than US domestic pricing, although with the LNG export terminals they're building that gap will close over time. If the gap does close, that should raise the US domestic price to around $12.50 to match the LNG spot price. Bearing in mind that's exactly the direction they're heading in - won't happen overnight but that's the broad direction.

 

[over9k]

Pardon my obsession with natural gas but US domestic market gas last traded at $4.26

Prices move around day to day a bit but that's up roughly a third from a month ago when price was in the low $3 range eg $3.20 etc.

Noting that international pricing is higher than US domestic pricing, although with the LNG export terminals they're building that gap will close over time. If the gap does close, that should raise the US domestic price to around $12.50 to match the LNG spot price. Bearing in mind that's exactly the direction they're heading in - won't happen overnight but that's the broad direction.

BOIL to degen this

 

[mullokintyre]

AUS CPI came out higher for January.
The weighting methodology has been changed for the month, so it may not be fair to compare with past performance.
Even so, it will not help the case for further cuts in the RBA cash rate any time soon.
The full set of data tables can be found here at the ABS .