Inflation

[houtman]

AUS CPI came out higher for January.
The weighting methodology has been changed for the month, so it may not be fair to compare with past performance.
Even so, it will not help the case for further cuts in the RBA cash rate any time soon.
The full set of data tables can be found here at the ABS .
View attachment 194162

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Cheers,

Looking at their Annual Weight Update(bolds mine) it appears they have lowered the Housing group because-
1. People are building less owner-occupied, presumably because of the costs and
2. Electricity was cheaper due to the short lived rebates!

Not sure if serious.

Housing​

The weight for the Housing group fell 0.35pp due to a decrease in the weight for New dwellings purchase by owner-occupiers (-0.48pp) and Electricity (-0.52pp).
Dwelling commencements in 2023-24 were the lowest in over ten years reflecting reduced spending on new dwelling construction and purchases of new dwellings.
The weight for Electricity fell due to lower electricity costs from the introduction of the Commonwealth Energy Bill Relief Fund rebates. These rebates were first introduced in July 2023 and were extended and expanded in July 2024. This combined with various state and territory government rebates, meant households spent less on electricity.

 

[mullokintyre]

​

The weight for Electricity fell due to lower electricity costs from the introduction of the Commonwealth Energy Bill Relief Fund rebates. These rebates were first introduced in July 2023 and were extended and expanded in July 2024. This combined with various state and territory government rebates, meant households spent less on electricity.

The part that pisses me off the most is that the rebates do not apply to all small businesses, and it does not apply to any large business.
According to Government Energy web site , not evryone is created equal.
if you are a small business that uses a lot of energy, no rebates for you!
So a large business where that use a lot of electricty will likely put their prices up because they get no rebates.
Total joke, but hey, everyone seems to accept it.
Why not say because registrations or rates are subsides for some sections of society, that those parts of the basket of goods ahve also deceased?
Mick

 

[moXJO]

Forex is legit my Achilles heel. Deep psychology scars from multiple ar5e handings.
Might be a short lived trade.

And there it is. Got rinsed out of this pretty fast. My torment in forex continues.

 

[Smurf1976]

if you are a small business that uses a lot of energy, no rebates for you!
So a large business where that use a lot of electricty will likely put their prices up because they get no rebates.

It varies between states somewhat but for the record 29% of all electricity is used by households. Or in other words 71% is business and government.

 

[waterbottle]

Huh...

Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker swan dives into recessionary territory | Forexlive

Q1 GDP growth now forecast at -1.5%

www.forexlive.com

 

[over9k]

Trump now putting 20% tariffs on china.

Meanwhile:



The pivot to india is now in full swing.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

The pivot to india is now in full swing.

i wouldn't trust an Indian qualification.

They don't even have corn flakes there

 

[qldfrog]

Trump now putting 20% tariffs on china.

Meanwhile:

View attachment 194628View attachment 194629

The pivot to india is now in full swing.

Open market/slaughter.imagine how cheap an Indian plumber or bricklayer can be, sent on a 2 month "business trip".
Having worked in IT and expected to be competitive against India for the last 20y, I will not shed tears....
Welcome Australia mainstream to the club...

 

[over9k]

My spidey sense is saying we're at the start of a bear market. I base this on nothing but my spidey sense.

 

[peter2]

I respect your "spidey sense" as you're a keen market observer. I'm still in buy the dip mode. When they start to fail I'll go bearish.

 

[divs4ever]

Trump now putting 20% tariffs on china.

Meanwhile:

View attachment 194628View attachment 194629

The pivot to india is now in full swing.

THAT is really going to annoy all the highly qualified ( and legal ) migrants that have come to Australia over the past 40-50 years ( and had their tertiary qualifications depreciated )

seems Albo just can't help making new friends among the voters ( sarcasm )

of course the alternate way of looking at is an Australian degree is now no more impressive than a degree that might be a fake ( or corrupt purchase )

but heck we MIGHT snag a person who is actually proficient in economics ( and make them RBA governor )

 

[divs4ever]

My spidey sense is saying we're at the start of a bear market. I base this on nothing but my spidey sense.

well we are in retrace territory ( roughly 5% down ) it is only a small stumble to a worrying downtrend

and now someone has finally admitted we are in a longish 'per capita recession ' ( some investors will understand what that means )

 

[moXJO]

Trump now putting 20% tariffs on china.

Meanwhile:

View attachment 194628View attachment 194629

The pivot to india is now in full swing.

This is actual madness. I did a few reports on Indian built houses as a favour and the houses ended up having to be redone.

 

[over9k]

This is actual madness. I did a few reports on Indian built houses as a favour and the houses ended up having to be redone.

Oh yeah they're shifty as f**k.

That's not unique to indians though.

 

[moXJO]

Oh yeah they're shifty as f**k.

That's not unique to indians though.

I've been in business for a long time. There were always some customers you double the price on and wrap up in contracts. Use to then give them a discount to the normal price just so they felt they got a bargain.

 

[qldfrog]

Interesting i think

NZ Reserve Bank governor resigns as nation tries to shake off recession

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand was unable to explain why Adrian Orr abruptly quit on Wednesday in Wellington with three years still to run in his second five-year term.

www.afr.com