Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

The state of the economy at the street level

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wayneL said:
There is peace, but then there is apoplexy :p
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@wayneL I did mention a peaceful life earlier.
Well, today I was working in Baskerville in the morning, on the edge of the escarpment.
There was barking dogs nonstop, wind whistling from the eaves of the house, wind chimes and several goods trains on the flat blowing their horns at the level crossing.
Gee, it made living in Gidgie appear so peaceful.
I know that this isn't what you meant, but when you get old and in your doterage these things tend to stand out.
 
Knobby22 said:
Melbourne CBD is still is massive at night. Seriously busy, rooftop bars, bands, nightclubs, gin places, at least 10 theatres, hundreds of restaurants but you need the day trade also. They can't all survive, the sandwich bars are struggling also. Southbank is dead, believe half the restaurants have closed.

Sydney has always been pretty quiet from my visits It's all RSL clubs and suburban haunts; isn't that where people go?...and the beach?
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I always eat near thai town, or the Korean area that runs parallel to China town. Thai town is always busy up near world square. People eat more than go to the pubs these days. The government taxed alcohol too much. I'd love to see government slashed by a third.
 
moXJO said:
The government taxed alcohol too much
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I do not drink alcohol so it doesn't affect me personally but yes it definitely does hurt businesses. Dan Murphy's and the likes are still doing reasonable sales volumes while a lot of pubs are shutting down. I suspect a lot of people are opting to drink at home due to the rising cost of drinking out. In many places in Sydney a pint of entry level beer is going for $12 or $13 no wonder people are opting to drink at home. Especially so when you consider pubs in Sydney for the most part lack atmosphere and a lot of them haven't been renovated in 30 years!
 
Value Hunter said:
I do not drink alcohol so it doesn't affect me personally but yes it definitely does hurt businesses. Dan Murphy's and the likes are still doing reasonable sales volumes while a lot of pubs are shutting down. I suspect a lot of people are opting to drink at home due to the rising cost of drinking out. In many places in Sydney a pint of entry level beer is going for $12 or $13 no wonder people are opting to drink at home. Especially so when you consider pubs in Sydney for the most part lack atmosphere and a lot of them haven't been renovated in 30 years!
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There's also a very isolating lifestyle factor to it. There were a lot of older guys that would catch up with mates at the pub and chat. That culture has been obliterated in 80-90% of the pubs I know.
After work drinks is becoming a thing of the past. It was a good networking setting in a more relaxed atmosphere.
 
So I'm in woolies buying icecreams and noticed the price has gone from $11 down to $6 something with a "price reduced for spring" label.

So I'm not sure if this is the new price or:
They pump the price up during winter due to less demand and drop it when they start with the hotter weather.
It's some kind of sale.

But then I saw the yoghurt had basically halved as well with the same label.

We starting to see price reductions?
 
The ABS has released the latest National Income Report
Household consumption -0.2%
GDP per hour worked -0.8% , which is the seventh fall in the last nine quarters.
Real net disposable income per capita -1.6% which is the 4th fall in the last 5 quarters.
GDP per capita -0.4% which is the sixth successive decline.
Domestic final demand deflator +0.9% QQ, +4.6% YY
1725414787520.png

Australian economy grew 0.2% in the June quarter 2024​

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose 0.2%, the eleventh consecutive quarter of growth. The Australian economy grew 1.5% in 2023-24, the weakest annual growth (excluding the COVID-19 pandemic) since 1991-92, a year that included the gradual recovery from the 1991 recession.
The weak growth reflects subdued household demand, which detracted 0.1 percentage points from GDP growth while government consumption contributed 0.3 percentage points, the same contribution to growth as previous quarter.

And finally, a quick not to the Treasurer, who has been strident in his defence of Government expenditute not contributing to final demand and thus inflation.
Note the Bold highlight in the section below.


Weakness persisted in the economy
Domestic final demand contributed 0.2 percentage points to GDP growth.
Household consumption was weak and detracted 0.1 percentage points from GDP, due to reduced discretionary spending.
Government expenditure contributed 0.3 percentage points, driven by continued strength in social benefits to households.

Investment had no contribution to growth, as net transfers of second-hand assets resulted in a detraction from total private investment (-0.1 percentage points) and was offset in public investment (+0.1 percentage points).
Net trade contributed 0.2 percentage points to GDP, with a rise in exports (0.5%) and a fall in imports (-0.2%).
Changes in inventories detracted 0.3 percentage points from GDP, with a smaller build-up in inventories compared to the March quarter. Manufacturing and Wholesale trade inventories experienced a run down from increased sales of fertilisers inventories imported in March.

overnment expenditure supported domestic final demand​

Growth in government consumption increased 1.4%. Commonwealth social assistance benefits to households led the rise, with continued strength in expenditure on national programs providing health services. State and local government expenditure also rose with increased employee expenses across most states and territories.

Australia is headed for a recession, possibley with persistent inflation as well, and there is not a lot we can do about it.
Mick
 
mullokintyre said:
The ABS has released the latest National Income Report
Household consumption -0.2%
GDP per hour worked -0.8% , which is the seventh fall in the last nine quarters.
Real net disposable income per capita -1.6% which is the 4th fall in the last 5 quarters.
GDP per capita -0.4% which is the sixth successive decline.
Domestic final demand deflator +0.9% QQ, +4.6% YY
View attachment 183673

Australian economy grew 0.2% in the June quarter 2024​

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose 0.2%, the eleventh consecutive quarter of growth. The Australian economy grew 1.5% in 2023-24, the weakest annual growth (excluding the COVID-19 pandemic) since 1991-92, a year that included the gradual recovery from the 1991 recession.
The weak growth reflects subdued household demand, which detracted 0.1 percentage points from GDP growth while government consumption contributed 0.3 percentage points, the same contribution to growth as previous quarter.

And finally, a quick not to the Treasurer, who has been strident in his defence of Government expenditute not contributing to final demand and thus inflation.
Note the Bold highlight in the section below.


Weakness persisted in the economy
Domestic final demand contributed 0.2 percentage points to GDP growth.
Household consumption was weak and detracted 0.1 percentage points from GDP, due to reduced discretionary spending.
Government expenditure contributed 0.3 percentage points, driven by continued strength in social benefits to households.

Investment had no contribution to growth, as net transfers of second-hand assets resulted in a detraction from total private investment (-0.1 percentage points) and was offset in public investment (+0.1 percentage points).
Net trade contributed 0.2 percentage points to GDP, with a rise in exports (0.5%) and a fall in imports (-0.2%).
Changes in inventories detracted 0.3 percentage points from GDP, with a smaller build-up in inventories compared to the March quarter. Manufacturing and Wholesale trade inventories experienced a run down from increased sales of fertilisers inventories imported in March.

overnment expenditure supported domestic final demand​

Growth in government consumption increased 1.4%. Commonwealth social assistance benefits to households led the rise, with continued strength in expenditure on national programs providing health services. State and local government expenditure also rose with increased employee expenses across most states and territories.

Australia is headed for a recession, possibley with persistent inflation as well, and there is not a lot we can do about it.
Mick
Click to expand...

That will help bring the inflation number down on consumer consumption. All that's needed now is electricity prices to come down for an election to be called, but that won't happen soon because supply is lower than demand. Oh, hang on, the Albanese government is sending out cheques to cover everyone's power bills, that will temporarily bring down electricity inflation. We might have an election soon after all.
 
JohnDe said:
That will help bring the inflation number down on consumer consumption. All that's needed now is electricity prices to come down for an election to be called, but that won't happen soon because supply is lower than demand. Oh, hang on, the Albanese government is sending out cheques to cover everyone's power bills, that will temporarily bring down electricity inflation. We might have an election soon after all.
Click to expand...
No matter what the economic parameters might be, it unlikely we will get an early election this year, see below.
Mick
1725418170993.png
 
mullokintyre said:
GDP per capita -0.4% which is the sixth successive decline.
Click to expand...
So on a per capita basis we've been in recession for 18 months.

Make that 20 months given the data is for the second quarter and it doesn't seem there's been a turnaround in the past two months.

Off that topic and onto personal observations, junk mail seems to have dried up. As in physical print catalogues etc placed in my letterbox, there's been a huge drop off and these days it's really just real estate agents and politicians still doing it, the rest seems to have dried up almost completely at this point. That must be an indicator of something surely? It's a change definitely. :2twocents
 
JohnDe said:
That will help bring the inflation number down on consumer consumption. All that's needed now is electricity prices to come down for an election to be called, but that won't happen soon because supply is lower than demand. Oh, hang on, the Albanese government is sending out cheques to cover everyone's power bills, that will temporarily bring down electricity inflation. We might have an election soon after all.
Click to expand...
Hey . I liked the $1,000 off my Bill. My first government handout ever! Maybe there was another electricity subsidy too.
 
Smurf1976 said:
So on a per capita basis we've been in recession for 18 months.

Make that 20 months given the data is for the second quarter and it doesn't seem there's been a turnaround in the past two months.

Off that topic and onto personal observations, junk mail seems to have dried up. As in physical print catalogues etc placed in my letterbox, there's been a huge drop off and these days it's really just real estate agents and politicians still doing it, the rest seems to have dried up almost completely at this point. That must be an indicator of something surely? It's a change definitely. :2twocents
Click to expand...

Not 18 or 20 months, economies across the globe are different to when the old indicators gave us the information we required. Things changed when Covid hit, work from home has changed everything, property values have given homeowners increased cash draw capabilities from banks, fear of labour shortages has kept people in jobs longer than would have been normal during a 1990's type recession, and so on.

I've been watching a slow wind down, consumers are slowly tightening their belts as disposable income slowly shrinks, and as fear of a recession or job loss starts to become a possibility in their world.

Over the past three months my business has had an increase in the number of people coming in with their resumé looking for a job or work experience. I haven't seen that for a few years.

It's possible that we're on a tight rope, we could fall and experience a massive correction or make it to the other side after a few stumbles and a bit of fear. We have done it before; it is all down to productivity government policy and the mining industry. Not looking so good thins time though, hey?
 

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