The state of the economy at the street level

[qldfrog]

Not rosy reading but , from their ABC

Redflow was the great hope of Australian manufacturing. Its collapse left customers with broken batteries

Redflow had political backing and a soaring ambition to sell energy storage to the world, but its $10,000 batteries regularly failed within months of installation leaving customers out of pocket.

www.abc.net.au

In summary, do we even have the expertise and know how to do more than cattle, grain and digging/shipping dirt?

 

[Bellcose]

retail spending data.

They ain't getting much from me to add to the stats. I've only bought some groceries and fuel over the last few months. I have no need to buy consumer goods such as a phone or other unnecessary bling. I consider I have everything I need for the foreseeable future. Yeah, I'm a tighta**e when it comes to differentiating between a need and a want.

 

[wayneL]

They ain't getting much from me to add to the stats. I've only bought some groceries and fuel over the last few months. I have no need to buy consumer goods such as a phone or other unnecessary bling. I consider I have everything I need for the foreseeable future. Yeah, I'm a tighta**e when it comes to differentiating between a need and a want.

Same here.

My wife on the other hand....

 

[divs4ever]

I asked for removal of duplication.not sure how it happened..Once is enough, especially with me

it happens to me from time to time , something to do with the internet response time and feed-back

annoying/funny when posting on forums , can be catastrophic when entering orders in a stressed market ( and yes both damned orders got filled .. one before i even knew the first one was successfully placed )

 

[divs4ever]

Not rosy reading but , from their ABC

Redflow was the great hope of Australian manufacturing. Its collapse left customers with broken batteries

Redflow had political backing and a soaring ambition to sell energy storage to the world, but its $10,000 batteries regularly failed within months of installation leaving customers out of pocket.

www.abc.net.au

In summary, do we even have the expertise and know how to do more than cattle, grain and digging/shipping dirt?

yes , there are various hobbyists , and home experimenters, inventors hiding in backyard sheds/garages all over Australia ( and most are funding this out of their own pockets ) BUT they probably don't have some fancy certificate/degree , to make the path easy for scaling up production

i might be wrong BUT Redflow seemed to come across the issues after it outsourced manufacture ( overseas )

maybe made in Australia the product would have been dearer but more reliable

 

[mullokintyre]

yes , there are various hobbyists , and home experimenters, inventors hiding in backyard sheds/garages all over Australia ( and most are funding this out of their own pockets ) BUT they probably don't have some fancy certificate/degree , to make the path easy for scaling up production

i might be wrong BUT Redflow seemed to come across the issues after it outsourced manufacture ( overseas )

maybe made in Australia the product would have been dearer but more reliable

The Batteries had always been made in Thailand, and they had persistent supply quality problems in the raw materials which transferred into the finished product.
It was one of the reasons that they decided to shift manufacturing back to OZ.
There is no garauntee of course that had they managed to get the batteries manufactured here it would have alleviated their quality control problems.
This company has cost me a lot of money, not just in the capital loss I made on the shares, but also the fact that I am going to have to replace the two batteries I have with something else.
The two batteries plus installation were about $25,000.
Will have to spend at least that much again.
Mick

 

[divs4ever]

The Batteries had always been made in Thailand, and they had persistent supply quality problems in the raw materials which transferred into the finished product.
It was one of the reasons that they decided to shift manufacturing back to OZ.
There is no garauntee of course that had they managed to get the batteries manufactured here it would have alleviated their quality control problems.
This company has cost me a lot of money, not just in the capital loss I made on the shares, but also the fact that I am going to have to replace the two batteries I have with something else.
The two batteries plus installation were about $25,000.
Will have to spend at least that much again.
Mick

only a capital loss for me

after having two inverters ( out of three ) on Solar Arrays failing ( while still under extended warranty ) caused by inferior components ie cooling fans AND the clown-show to get those warranties honored ( by a MAJOR ASX-listed company .. which helped it to graduate to my AVOID list , from a former 'core holding ' )

i was very eager to see how RFX ( and rival ) batteries handle South Queensland conditions before buying a battery for off-grid moments and/or full time supplement to the arrays

interesting times in battery technology .. it seems

 

[SirRumpole]

Not rosy reading but , from their ABC

Redflow was the great hope of Australian manufacturing. Its collapse left customers with broken batteries

Redflow had political backing and a soaring ambition to sell energy storage to the world, but its $10,000 batteries regularly failed within months of installation leaving customers out of pocket.

www.abc.net.au

In summary, do we even have the expertise and know how to do more than cattle, grain and digging/shipping dirt?

Possibly, but we don't have the capital to fail, learn by mistakes and then succeed.

 

[divs4ever]

Possibly, but we don't have the capital to fail, learn by mistakes and then succeed.

or is that the gullibility to stump up more cash for the third and fourth ( and .. ) capital raising ?

 

[SirRumpole]

or is that the gullibility to stump up more cash for the third and fourth ( and .. ) capital raising ?

Maybe. But if Redflow had more capital in the first place they would have been able to do more R&D, test the product intensively in-house and prove the concept before rushing it onto the market.

We still don't really know if it was a flawed concept in the first place, or a viable concept that was badly implemented.

 

[divs4ever]

Maybe. But if Redflow had more capital in the first place they would have been able to do more R&D, test the product intensively in-house and prove the concept before rushing it onto the market.

We still don't really know if it was a flawed concept in the first place, or a viable concept that was badly implemented.

they already had an existing business with battery back-ups for computer server rooms , so they didn't just escape from the garage/garden shed , one might have thought that they would have enough contacts in the battery industry ( albeit , more on the lead-acid side ) to have some sort of understanding

( if i hadn't come across them via computer server rooms , i might not have invested in them at all .. and just stuck the money into extra KOV )

 

[moXJO]

Australia 2024,: building a shed.
Signing August ,paying, slab delayed: weather, whatever..fair.
Once slab completed mid November,ask for delivery date of materials (actual shed): mid January, please confirm your colour choices ! WTF...
"You understand the weather and we stop manufacturing /shipping on the 19th of December "
In 2024, a major Australian company is not even able to sequence manufacturing ahead...
Should not be doing business IMHO.
I would prefer it to stay alive till completion..obviously..but that is pathetic..It seems even with instant money transfer, IT systems and spreadsheet, our productivity is still based on outdated processes.saw same in building industry...ahhh welll

It's got shocking, I don't know what happened.
I use to be able to get stuff next day or 2-3 Max. Now it can roll in up to 4 months out.

Productivity has to be looping backwards.

 

[mullokintyre]

The AFR had this graph back in August.
I doubt it has improved since then.
The steep rise in all countries in late 2019 early 2020 occurred at the time of the outbreak to COVID.
It peaked in September 2021, but its been all downhill after that
Whereas the rest of the OECD recovered its gradual improvement, Australia did not.
The decline started when the Morrison government was still in power, but the majority of the fall in disposable income occurred in the period coincided with the election of the current government.


A more recent article in AFRfrom Mckinsey paints a poor picture of the AUstralian Economy.

Business investment is at recession levels as Australia’s productivity growth slumps to 30th out of 35 rich countries, according to a new McKinsey report that warns declining living standards are now a “national emergency”.

Australia has had zero labour productivity growth since 2016, showing up in higher costs for business and consumers, weaker real incomes and declining competitiveness for investment, McKinsey said in the report, Reviving the ‘golden goose’ of Australia Inc.

mick

 

[SirRumpole]

The AFR had this graph back in August.
I doubt it has improved since then.
The steep rise in all countries in late 2019 early 2020 occurred at the time of the outbreak to COVID.
It peaked in September 2021, but its been all downhill after that
Whereas the rest of the OECD recovered its gradual improvement, Australia did not.
The decline started when the Morrison government was still in power, but the majority of the fall in disposable income occurred in the period coincided with the election of the current government.

View attachment 188920
A more recent article in AFRfrom Mckinsey paints a poor picture of the AUstralian Economy.

mick

Could be because we have an undiversified economy with reliance on tourism and mining which both suffered falls after the pandemic.

 

[mullokintyre]

Could be because we have an undiversified economy with reliance on tourism and mining which both suffered falls after the pandemic.

Tourism is reasobaly labour intenssive, but has almost recovered to pre covid levels according to the Tourism board, so i don't think we can point the finger in that direction.

As for mining, according to ABS data the Mining sector had the highest growth in earnings.

Key statistics​

• Total selected industries earnings grew $93.4b (12.9%).
• The Mining industry had the largest growth in earnings of $52.0b (23.4%).
• Wholesale trade earnings grew $7.9b (21.9%).
• Retail trade earnings grew $6.8b (16.2%).
• Construction earnings grew $6.1b (11.6%).
• Total selected industries operating profit before tax (OPBT) was steady, declining $2.1b (0.3%) in 2022-23.
• The Mining industry had the largest increase in OPBT of $57.2b (31.0%), while the Rental, hiring and real estate services industry had the largest decrease of $45.5b (-44.8%).

Perhaps in the case of mining, it is the fall in productivity that is the problem.


mick

 

[Smurf1976]

The decline started when the Morrison government was still in power, but the majority of the fall in disposable income occurred in the period coincided with the election of the current government.

I'll argue the causes pre-date anyone hearing of either.

What we see in economic data and real world experiences is much like looking at the health of a 60 year old. It's the culmination of things done over an extended period, barring genuine outliers of particularly good or bad luck it didn't just suddenly happen.

When's the last time you heard anyone at all talk about the need for productivity or being cost competitive? As subjects of public debate go, that one's as dead as it gets.

Meanwhile to more direct examples, in my own social circle it seems to be at both extremes. Everyone's either living it up with travel and so on or they're being noticeably frugal, there don't seem to be many in the middle. Just my observation but for some it's overseas holidays, new cars, renovations etc and for others it's work and doing local, cheap things on the weekend and still driving the same car.

 

[Smurf1976]

Perhaps in the case of mining, it is the fall in productivity that is the problem.

We're mining and selling less coal in volume terms, that I know from data. Not sure about iron ore.

 

[SirRumpole]

What we see in economic data and real world experiences is much like looking at the health of a 60 year old. It's the culmination of things done over an extended period, barring genuine outliers of particularly good or bad luck it didn't just suddenly happen.

Free market capitalist ideology promoted by both parties, starting with Hawke/Keating reducing tariffs and continued with a reluctance to support Australian businesses with the mantra "the market will fix it".

Well, the market has stuffed it (us) afaic, and we need to get real about what other countries are doing with subsidies, tariffs etc and put the ideology aside.

 

[SirRumpole]

Wool industry looks to ease sovereign risk as it eyes return of onshore processing

A wool processing plant run entirely from renewable energy is being touted as a blueprint for the future of the industry in Australia.

www.abc.net.au

 

[qldfrog]

Could be because we have an undiversified economy with reliance on tourism and mining which both suffered falls after the pandemic.

Tourism is booming elsewhere...
Mining? Gold is at a high, we have had since covid energy companies doing top profit worldwide, etc etc.
But when you self destroy your energy production and impose it on the whole economy, it has a cost.
When you prevent energy exploration or new mines it has a cost.
When you import solar panels instead of opening a new gas reservoir, it has a cost
I understand you trying to find reasons away from ALP governments state/fed but excuses are not valid.
We pay for NDIS, for jump in PS jobs, stupid submarine and fighters purchases, for taxation overload.multi level red tape eyc...
Have you noticed the crypto regulations coming on?
The troglodytes incompetents at the helm are ensuring the death of any existing Australian based blockchain businesses and ensuring no startup in this domain will put feet here again.
And what about preventing exports of our own sheep or cattle? Surely in our interest..not even mentioning tribal trends cost
All that ALP.
But i agree, both sides were involved when extending travel lockdown for 3 years during COVID.
Longest in the world but for Chile.
That was good for business i am sure, for Pfizer indeed to prolong hysteria, but not for my business, or all of the Australian economy.
The whole thread tells you why!
And it is just a start, more deficit, more interest to pay, we ensure even changes of policies or governments will be burdened with huge ongoing costs.
This is not a capital gain on RE, this is structural and mental.
Took 50y for Argentina to wake up, so RDV in 2100 if we are still a nation