Trump Era 2025-2029 : Stock and Economic Comment

[The Triangle]

ASX diversity rules in limbo amid Trump DEI backlash

New rules requiring listed companies to report on diversity measures remain up in the air, after the ASX’s governance council refused to put a timeline on finalising the changes.

www.afr.com

The principles proposed to ask boards to report on the sexuality, age, Indigenous heritage and disabilities of their directors.

Well. Sounds like the ASX are afraid of Trump. Good for us. Who cares about the sexual choices of the BHP board or Aboriginal heritage of the NAB board.

Needless bureaucracy doesn't bring down prices. People care more about the economy than diversity.

What if Trump says you cannot operate in America if you have DEI reporting in a foreign country? Or says pick Australia or US for a listing.

“The ASX Corporate Governance Council guidelines need a fundamental overhaul,” Mr Wylie said. “When the words ‘diversity’ and ‘inclusion’ are mentioned 10 times more than shareholder value, you know you’ve got a problem.”

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Martin Gurri explains how the second Trump administration will differ from the first.

“So it was with the first Trump administration. We heard, loud and clear, what Trump was against: immigration, the news media, Nancy Pelosi, etc. He often spoke in crudely nihilistic terms. But what was his positive vision for the country? It was hard to say. Trump was trapped in a life-and-death struggle with his political antagonists—maybe it was unfair to expect soaring ideals from him at that juncture. But the fact remains that his energies, during his first term of office, were concentrated on negation.

“This time around, all thoughts are turned to action. Trump’s ambitious program will advance on many fronts—unshackling the economy and restoring the worth of citizenship, for example—but the main strategic thrust is an effort to tame Leviathan, that is, to narrow the democratic gap between modern government and the public. Trump means to grapple with, and if possible, cauterize, the festering sources of revolt. His instrument will be the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, an advisory group led by Musk that aims at “sweeping change,” including the dismantling of “antidemocratic” structures in the federal behemoth. Redundant units and regulatory agencies lacking explicit congressional approval are certain to fall, with proportionate “reductions in force.” The goal appears to be to enhance accountability as well as to increase efficiency and savings

"The crucial question is whether the system can be reformed. Evidently, Trump was elected to do just that. To the extent that he can persuade his voters that change is possible—that their revolt was a legitimate gesture, armed with a militant program—Trump can begin to restore the public’s trust in the institutions and the principles that sustain them, very much including democracy.

“There’s a human dimension to reform, too. It has long been apparent that our current elite class must be replaced by people who feel at home in the twenty-first century. By recent standards, including that of his first-term cabinet, Trump’s new advisers and appointees are relatively youthful. Vance is 40, Gabbard and Kash Patel are in their 40s, while Musk, at 53, is somewhere between a perpetual child and an elder statesman. Besides enjoying the full vigor of life, members of this crowd have few memories of Vietnam, Watergate, or even Monica Lewinsky. Their eyes are fixed on the present and the future—beyond the digital culture that so distresses our decrepit elites to the next tidal waves of disruption, such as artificial intelligence and blockchain technology.

“Of course, the odds are stacked against them. Failure is more likely than not. But it would be the crowning irony of Trump’s improbable trajectory if the motley collection of pirates and adventurers presently around him turn out to be the next American ruling class."
.
An ex-CIA analyst, Martin Gurri is the author of The Revolt of the Public

 

[moXJO]

Interesting that a lot of tech companies are advancing military tech. Palantir, Anduril, anthropic to name a few. Generally advances in military tech see advances in all tech. We might break through that next wall soon.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Interesting that a lot of tech companies are advancing military tech. Palantir, Anduril, anthropic to name a few. Generally advances in military tech see advances in all tech. We might break through that next wall soon.

wonderful 'live fire' opportunity in Ukraine / Russia right now.

Drone advancement is one game changer, surface naval assets are verging on obsolete .

 

[Smurf1976]

The principles proposed to ask boards to report on the sexuality, age, Indigenous heritage and disabilities of their directors.

The problem with that sort of thing is it biases toward discouraging the very people who ought be company directors from becoming one.

Those with genuine talent will have many options for employment and no need to publicly divulge their private life, they'll just go and do something else instead. Versus those with less talent and fewer alternative options who'll go along with it because they desperately want the job.

Rationally it should lower the overall standard of directors in much the same way as voluntary redundancies lower the overall capability of a company's workforce. Because the best people have alternative options so they're the ones who decide to go.

 

[over9k]

The problem with that sort of thing is it biases toward discouraging the very people who ought be company directors from becoming one.

Those with genuine talent will have many options for employment and no need to publicly divulge their private life, they'll just go and do something else instead. Versus those with less talent and fewer alternative options who'll go along with it because they desperately want the job.

Rationally it should lower the overall standard of directors in much the same way as voluntary redundancies lower the overall capability of a company's workforce. Because the best people have alternative options so they're the ones who decide to go.

It's never been about what's best for a company. Ever. Any claims of its necessity is just window dressing.

It's just naked self interest masking itself as everything but.

 

[moXJO]

wonderful 'live fire' opportunity in Ukraine / Russia right now.

Drone advancement is one game changer, surface naval assets are verging on obsolete .

I'm actually a little worried that the US is spending billions on military AI and drone tech. Because you know the buggers will unleash it on someone. There's too much spending for them not to go to war.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

 

[farmerge]

I'm actually a little worried that the US is spending billions on military AI and drone tech. Because you know the buggers will unleash it on someone. There's too much spending for them not to go to war.

The US of A is and has always been a war mongering country that relies on a war somewhere.

 

[moXJO]

The US of A is and has always been a war mongering country that relies on a war somewhere.

It's long been ruled by neocons. That era is dying/dead. Trump is hopefully the transition. Doesn't mean it's good for anyone but the US though.

Every other country previously protected by US now has to cut their social programs and spend on military. That's the only reason Europe is p1ssed, they have to cut welfare and up the defence budgets.
I wonder if US will indeed hit a golden age and Europe can no longer gloat about looking after their citizens.

 

[moXJO]

Good time for defence stocks

 

[divs4ever]

Good time for defence stocks

nah , Trump will put the microscope on them too , soon enough

fancy promises wrapped up in stage managed presentations and expensive bill paperwork

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

It's long been ruled by neocons. That era is dying/dead. Trump is hopefully the transition. Doesn't mean it's good for anyone but the US though.

Every other country previously protected by US now has to cut their social programs and spend on military. That's the only reason Europe is p1ssed, they have to cut welfare and up the defence budgets.
I wonder if US will indeed hit a golden age and Europe can no longer gloat about looking after their citizens.

I'm with Trump on this.

Many of those European "welfare programs" are similar to our NDIS and just a rort. The waste, inefficiency and fraud is something to behold if you know of anyone involved here in Australia with the NDIS. Governments need to be forced to roll these programs back.

gg

 

[Dona Ferentes]

from Christopher Joye in his weekly op-ed
.
".... One thing this columnist is keeping a close eye on is the partnership between Donald Trump and Elon Musk. The US president’s tax cuts cost him about $US8.1 trillion ($12.7 trillion) on our latest estimates. He needs his tariffs to raise revenue to pay for these cuts, which is why this is no bluff. Yet the currently announced tariffs only generate $US1.5 trillion.

Absent spending cuts, this means the US budget deficit will deteriorate from circa 5.75 per cent of GDP to 7.75 per cent. And the debt to GDP ratio jumps from 98 per cent to 133 per cent – its worst level since World War II. This could easily drive US 10-year government bond yields to 5 per cent or higher, which would pummel equities and other risky asset-classes.

He needs a miracle from Musk. To cut the $US2 trillion budget deficit in half, Musk has to slash government spending by 15 per cent. This is in theory very achievable. The problem is Trump has quarantined large parts of the budget from these cuts, although this ground appears to be shifting. Once sacrosanct defence spending is now in the cross-hairs.

If Musk can make enormous amounts of public waste disappear and drive a productivity boom, he could boost growth while putting downward pressure on inflation. And this new paradigm could be emulated around the world. It is nevertheless definitionally hard to find iconic figures like Musk who are really willing to take the sword to all-powerful public bureaucracies. The vast majority of stakeholders are far too economically conflicted to take on the establishment.

 

[moXJO]

nah , Trump will put the microscope on them too , soon enough

fancy promises wrapped up in stage managed presentations and expensive bill paperwork

I should of said the minnow AI/drone/robotics ones.

 

[Smurf1976]

fancy promises wrapped up in stage managed presentations and expensive bill paperwork

Not uncommon in technical sales generally.

First thing most do is identify who's making the purchasing decision and in particular what their qualifications and background are.

Sure wouldn't be the first time a supplier didn't even bother tendering once they found out the decision maker is someone technical who knows their stuff and won't be swayed by their slick marketing presentation aimed at non-technical managers.

It's a pretty common thing.