Trump Era 2025-2029 : Stock and Economic Comment

[moXJO]

All my shares are on credit except one as I am still paying off my house.
I am a bit nervous about the next year but don't want to sell this financial year due to capital gains tax.

I am a high conviction stock picker so find it hard to sell as I am generally going quite well but all stocks fall in a crash.

I do think we are going top see a large fall sometime in the next 3 years. But when?
I know Trump has profits foremost in mind which helps the USA market but all the expulsions from the country and tariff rises have got to hurt parts of the economy (mainly middle class). Its a tough call.

my guess was Christmas rally, slight correction. We have had a few things go on in the US (potential terrorist attack, shooting) that might stir up some fear.

Trumps tariffs are a big unknown. As well as China and Russia's reactions to Trump.
Everyone is just assuming that they will back down. But they may call his bluff.

Tech is high on the agenda. I flicked from Tesla to palantir but don't feel that solid in position.

 

[Knobby22]

my guess was Christmas rally, slight correction. We have had a few things go on in the US (potential terrorist attack, shooting) that might stir up some fear.

Trumps tariffs are a big unknown. As well as China and Russia's reactions to Trump.
Everyone is just assuming that they will back down. But they may call his bluff.

Tech is high on the agenda. I flicked from Tesla to palantir but don't feel that solid in position.

Good points.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

here is a a bear


.
BCA’s Berezin, the most bearish strategist in data compiled by Bloomberg, based his market prediction on the expectation of a US recession. Among other things, he said that Trump could spark a trade war that weighs on business investment, and he warned about the potential outbreak of a “bond market riot” against deficit-funded tax cuts.

In Berezin’s scenario, those events could collide with an economy where credit card and auto loan delinquencies are already on the rise. “I’m not a perma-bear; this is really the first time in my career that I’ve been really outspoken bearish,” Berezin told me. “The market needs to hear a more sober bearish voice, because they’re so rare these days.”