Trump Era 2025-2029 : Stock and Economic Comment

[Value Hunter]

Value? What is this foreign concept of which you speak?

Yes indeed it does feel like that at times. It feels like the stock markets are totally untethered from value for years.

 

[Value Hunter]

Thing with Buffet is he doesn't try and nail the timing precisely. He just works out the "what" then positions accordingly waiting for the inevitable to occur.

The problem with this is inflation. Cash is a melting ice cube. The more years you wait in cash the more capital you lose and the more gains you have to make to break even. If you hold $200 billion in cash for 5 years even after taking interest (after tax) into account that $200 billion will probably be worth $170 billion so whatever you invest in after 5 years first has to make you $30 billion just to breakeven.

 

[investor13]

Burry's move is very simple to explain. U.S. stocks are overvalued and Chinese stocks are undervalued therefore he is selling his overvalued U.S. stocks to buy undervalued Chinese stocks. The P.E. ratio of the Chinese stock market is half the U.S. stock market.

Blurry has called wolf to many times. He is correct about US to China stocks as, most of the s&p stocks have been in recession for years only being dragged by a dozen or so stocks mostly the mag 7. With the advisement of technology the traditional P.E pricing models has significantly changed due to only needing a few lap tops or an office filled with a few as opposed to a factory of worker to have a billion dollar business

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

For the record my prediction for markets in 2025 is that they will either go up or down, or stay the same.

I'm happy to be quoted on this and taken to task should I be wrong on 31st December 2025.

gg

 

[Dona Ferentes]

For the record my prediction for markets in 2025 is that they will either go up or down, or stay the same.

I'm happy to be quoted on this and taken to task should I be wrong on 31st December 2025.

gg

I'm finessing that, and think markets will either go up then down, or down then up. Further, they will only stay the same if no trades are made.

 

[DannyB0000]

The problem with this is inflation. Cash is a melting ice cube. The more years you wait in cash the more capital you lose and the more gains you have to make to break even. If you hold $200 billion in cash for 5 years even after taking interest (after tax) into account that $200 billion will probably be worth $170 billion so whatever you invest in after 5 years first has to make you $30 billion just to breakeven.

Buffett doesn't want to deploy all his cash when stocks are overvalued like they are with US stocks. His favourite index, Wilshire 5000 is showing US stocks are significantly overvalued and valuations don't stay that way indefinitely. I think Buffett is smart with his strategy, build up his cash position while stocks are expensive, earning interest and then go on a spending spree when valuations are down.

 

[Smurf1976]

Cash is a melting ice cube.

I like that quote. Sums it up nicely.

 

[farmerge]

For the record my prediction for markets in 2025 is that they will either go up or down, or stay the same.

I'm happy to be quoted on this and taken to task should I be wrong on 31st December 2025.

gg

@Garpal Gumnut Now steady on gg this is putting your head on the chopping block!!!!!!

 

[divs4ever]

Does value investing still make sense?
Feel like you miss out on massive gains.

are massive gains essential to YOU ?

i invested looking for multiple trickles of income in a ( future ) uncertain world

now sure i have several ten-baggers , but that was fate , not why i bought them for

stocks like TUA you might have picked ) but TNE to go up more than 25 times or APE , a 100 year old car dealership chain to go up nearly 5 times since March 2020 , SNL a ten-bagger

i just bought stocks that i thought could pay divs most years ( and survive ) fate/luck did the rest

but if you buy the right stock at a fair price ( instead of chasing the trend ) maybe value investing will still work for some

remember almost anything could happen with a Trump administration even a civil war ( you already have the outgoing administration trying to spend every cent they can borrow , to go on top of the existing debt )

 

[divs4ever]

That is true but its a double edged sword. Buffett can buy enough shares in a company to influence the board in some cases if he so chooses. Also he can do deals with companies for convertible preferred shares, institutional share placements, etc that normal investors cannot do. Furthermore he would have better access to management and more information in general due to his network.

yes he has several advantages , but being a minnow investor can have it's advantages too , if you are careful ( and don't move the market too early )

 

[divs4ever]

Burry's move is very simple to explain. U.S. stocks are overvalued and Chinese stocks are undervalued therefore he is selling his overvalued U.S. stocks to buy undervalued Chinese stocks. The P.E. ratio of the Chinese stock market is half the U.S. stock market.

yes , but that is betting there will be no trade/sanctions war between the US and China

and China might easily raise the BRICS wall ( there are already something like 11 full members and close to half the world's population , especially if Indonesia opts in )

will we spiral into a bi-polar world ( pun intended )

 

[investtrader]

No one can precisely foresee the future, but Burry manages more money than what most traders have seen in their lifetime.

Even Buffet has cashed in.

From 2016 to 2020 Burry lost 15% total. He made 200 or 300% in 2020, then the last 3 years he lost 27%. What's the saying about a broken clock?

 

[TimeISmoney]

From 2016 to 2020 Burry lost 15% total. He made 200 or 300% in 2020, then the last 3 years he lost 27%. What's the saying about a broken clock?

Have a look at his net worth though, if he doesn't know much and he's wrong more than he is right that's a lot of wealth to hold.

 

[divs4ever]

From 2016 to 2020 Burry lost 15% total. He made 200 or 300% in 2020, then the last 3 years he lost 27%. What's the saying about a broken clock?

now that is fine if you have courageous clients , but many investors are NERVOUS and even after a 200% gain would want to take some profit/original cash out

when i have spectacular gains , i snatch out the original capital and MIGHT leave ( some of ) the profits running

they would have better nerves than me to have stuck with Burry ( all the cash still on the table ) since say 2006

yes i admire his wins , but i like to take the capital loss risk off the table ( take the money and run )

 

[moXJO]

are massive gains essential to YOU ?

When I put a trade on I expect a decent hit. As much as I'd call my method "gambling" apparently someone coined a name to something similar: "social arbitrage".
I don't care what instrument I trade either.

 

[Knobby22]

All my shares are on credit except one as I am still paying off my house.
I am a bit nervous about the next year but don't want to sell this financial year due to capital gains tax.

I am a high conviction stock picker so find it hard to sell as I am generally going quite well but all stocks fall in a crash.

I do think we are going top see a large fall sometime in the next 3 years. But when?
I know Trump has profits foremost in mind which helps the USA market but all the expulsions from the country and tariff rises have got to hurt parts of the economy (mainly middle class). Its a tough call.

 

[Bellcose]

All my shares are on credit except one as I am still paying off my house.
I am a bit nervous about the next year but don't want to sell this financial year due to capital gains tax.

I am a high conviction stock picker so find it hard to sell as I am generally going quite well but all stocks fall in a crash.

I do think we are going top see a large fall sometime in the next 3 years. But when?
I know Trump has profits foremost in mind which helps the USA market but all the expulsions from the country and tariff rises have got to hurt parts of the economy (mainly middle class). Its a tough call.

It will be interesting for sure. It would seem on a relative income basis some are have gone backwards.

The State of the American Middle Class

As the financial divide has grown, a smaller share of Americans now live in middle-class households. Here are key facts about this group.

www.pewresearch.org

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I just thought I'd put Trump's offer to buy Greenland from Denmark in here, as I didn't want to start a thread just on this. The offer has been widely mocked by the liberal media in the US and the UK, and Denmark and Greenland has reacted negatively to the offer.

There are quite a number of precedents for the US buying land to add to it's territory going back to before the purchase of Alaska from Russia, and since. France, Spain and Britain have been the recipients of measly dollar amounts for significant land amounting to 20% of the US present landmass, the most recent being in 1917.

It is all about the Arctic and access by proximity to huge mineral deposits in one of the the last continents to be mined. The main opponents are Russia and China. Russia has quite a strong case for the right to mine the Arctic.

I enclose a pdf from the Spectator which gives the US/Trump side of the matter. It has convinced me to back the US in this kerfuffle. The issue may affect commodities/gold if Trump acts the bully on the matter this year.

gg

 

[farmerge]

I just thought I'd put Trump's offer to buy Greenland from Denmark in here, as I didn't want to start a thread just on this. The offer has been widely mocked by the liberal media in the US and the UK, and Denmark and Greenland has reacted negatively to the offer.

There are quite a number of precedents for the US buying land to add to it's territory going back to before the purchase of Alaska from Russia, and since. France, Spain and Britain have been the recipients of measly dollar amounts for significant land amounting to 20% of the US present landmass, the most recent being in 1917.

It is all about the Arctic and access by proximity to huge mineral deposits in one of the the last continents to be mined. The main opponents are Russia and China. Russia has quite a strong case for the right to mine the Arctic.

I enclose a pdf from the Spectator which gives the US/Trump side of the matter. It has convinced me to back the US in this kerfuffle. The issue may affect commodities/gold if Trump acts the bully on the matter this year.

gg

@Garpal Gumnut watching this scenario with more than a bit of interest.

 

[macca]

@Garpal Gumnut watching this scenario with more than a bit of interest.

It would be worth knowing the thoughts of those who live there.

They may see distinct advantages in being US citizens and coming under the umbrella of USA defence forces, plus they could migrate to the USA if they wish

Then again, if they all speak Danish, then tradition may bind them Denmark and they are all horrified that them there Yankees want to take over