my guess is YES ( no matter who wins )
Not only due to that cause but others as well.
Trump now the favourite, paying 1.60 vs harris's 2.30 on sportsbet.
Stainless?Back to inflation basics, I just paid nearly $13 for four nuts and bolts, M10 X 25mm
Yeah but what grade?Back to inflation basics, I just paid nearly $13 for four nuts and bolts, M10 X 25mm
Need to go to Bunnings..Back to inflation basics, I just paid nearly $13 for four nuts and bolts, M10 X 25mm
No, no, no, not this little duck. I have worked very hard at retirement and now a fully trained retiree and have a diploma with honours
Fair chance
???
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/bu...r/news-story/51a2a3a2724905e095a23a0077144313
This story brought to you by the real estate lobby of australia.https://www.theaustralian.com.au/bu...r/news-story/51a2a3a2724905e095a23a0077144313
I take this as the closest we'll see to someone ringing an actual bell at the bottom of the inflation cycle to tell us it's going back up.
The enthusiasm for lower rates is in my view akin to someone who just survived cancer asking their doctor when they can start their heavy drinking and smoking again?
Um..... how about "never"?
My view is we haven't seen the peak of inflation yet, we're in the eye of the storm contemplating adding more fuel to the fire. Time will tell......
The West faces new inflation fears
Having moved in lockstep, America and Europe now have very different concerns
Central bankers have avoided celebrations and declarations of victory. They know full well that consumers and firms, stung by the highest inflation since the 1970s, would not appreciate them. In private, though, many are elated. The sharpest rise in borrowing costs in decades, dubbed “the great tightening” by the IMF, appears to have worked better than anyone expected. Global inflation has retreated to more comfortable levels. Better still, this has been achieved without a sharp rise in joblessness or a recession.
But as inflation continues to cool, new dilemmas are emerging. What is striking is how different they are on either side of the Atlantic. European policymakers, having dealt with the relatively novel phenomenon of high inflation, now worry they are returning to an older and more familiar problem: inflation that is too low, as the continent’s economic growth looks increasingly frail. At the same time, American central bankers are discovering that although they have made a lot of progress, inflation is still higher than they desire. The country’s economy is booming.
Until recently, inflation in the two regions had moved in lockstep. Analysis by the IMF, in the form of an advance chapter of the World Economic Outlook, to be published in full on October 22nd, makes clear the extraordinary nature of the recent inflationary wave. In the view of the IMF, it came in stages. First, during covid-19 lockdowns, demand for goods surged as supply chains came under pressure. Then, as economies re-opened, pent-up demand for services raised price pressures. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine exacerbated problems. By mid-2022 global inflation was triple its pre-pandemic average, and many of its causes applied to countries everywhere.
Beneath the surface, however, there were differences. American inflation was at first driven by the same sort of shocks as elsewhere, but from late 2021 a tight labour market contributed to its problems. The IMF’s research suggests that a lack of slack in America’s job market has been adding two to three percentage points to annual inflation rates. In Europe, which was more exposed to higher energy prices after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the labour market has been looser. The result—high inflation—was the same, but the two regions got there in different ways.
Now that supply chains are pretty much back to normal, these differences are becoming increasingly apparent. They can be witnessed in the medium-term inflation expectations of financial markets. The so-called “five-year, five-year forward” inflation expectation is a favoured measure of central bankers trying to gauge the inflationary temperature. Derived from interest-rate futures contracts, it represents the average inflation rate expected by investors for the five years beginning in five years’ time. In the middle of last year, European and American rates converged. Against a backdrop of high inflation, market participants expected medium-term annual price rises to in time settle at around 2.5% on both sides of the Atlantic. Over the past year, though, rates have diverged sharply, with American medium-term inflation now expected to be notably higher than European inflation (see chart).
American consumer-price inflation fell to 2.4% in September, coming in above projections of a drop to 2.3%. On October 14th Christopher Waller, an influential member of the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee, described the data as “disappointing”. By contrast, rate-setters at the European Central Bank are more alarmed by the lack of inflation than its persistence. On October 17th the ECB cut rates for the third time this year; markets now expect a further three reductions by the end of March. At their previous meeting, minutes noted that “the risk of undershooting the target [of 2%] was now becoming non-negligible”. Indeed, the latest reading suggests that euro-zone inflation is today at 1.7%.
Too little, rather than too much, inflation is a problem with which the ECB is unfortunately familiar. Inflation was below 2% for most of the decade before the global upswing in prices that began in 2021. With European growth weakening, Germany in recession and price pressures appearing newly absent, economists at the Macroeconomic Policy Institute, a German think-tank, fear that the ECB mistook a global inflationary surge for a fundamental change in European price dynamics, and raised rates by too much as result. The most recent survey of professional economists by the ECB points to medium-term euro-zone growth of just 1.3% a year, the lowest reading since the survey began.
Hence the divergence. In America a still-tight jobs market is continuing to make reducing inflation difficult; in Europe the old picture of sluggish growth and weak price pressures is once more reasserting itself. The Atlantic is 5,000km and 0.7 percentage points wide. ■
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