PNV - Polynovo Limited

[galumay]

I did have a look Knobby, thats what led me to conclude its a stonk!

I first looked at it in detail a couple of years ago and couldn't see an investible business then, I still dont.

Just reverse engineer the market cap to arrive at earnings that would represent fair value.

 

[Knobby22]

They have only just built the factory and got the licenses. (Literally the European medical licence last month).
Earnings is just starting, they are still hiring the sales teams.
It is a medical device scaffolding technology that is much better than the existing technologies for plastic surgery, burns, hernias etc.

I suggest you come back in two years time and relook at it then.

 

[galumay]

If they could grow earnings in 2 years, with no increase in share price, to the tens of millions of $'s required to provide a sensible return on capital, I will be suitably impressed!

 

[Knobby22]

If they could grow earnings in 2 years, with no increase in share price, to the tens of millions of $'s required to provide a sensible return on capital, I will be suitably impressed!

I can promise truly massive earnings growth, but you know the share market.

 

[tinhat]

If they could grow earnings in 2 years, with no increase in share price, to the tens of millions of $'s required to provide a sensible return on capital, I will be suitably impressed!

Let's agree to meet here again in January 2022 to see where PNV is at in terms of earnings, return on equity and share price then. I hold.

 

[galumay]

sounds like a plan, I will set a reminder and check back in. (If I last that long!!)

 

[Boggo]

Follow on from here...
PNV - Polynovo Limited

Buy was set at $2.61 so it looks like I'm back in.

(click to expand)

 

[tinhat]

Follow on from here...
PNV - Polynovo Limited

Buy was set at $2.61 so it looks like I'm back in.

(click to expand)
View attachment 99852

I think this a good example of getting back into a stock when you think the timing is right. Too often, I forget all about a stock that I have sold out of because I tend to subconsciously psychologically "walk away" from them as if they are past girlfriends. Selling a stock is not the same as breaking-up with your girlfriend. Stocks are more like friends with benefits!

 

[Ferret]

I bought in at $1.98 two weeks ago.

I know what they say about letting your winners run, but I'm getting a bit nervous.

40% in two weeks is nice. Hope I'm not being too greedy!

 

[tinhat]

Follow on from here...
PNV - Polynovo Limited

Buy was set at $2.61 so it looks like I'm back in.

(click to expand)
View attachment 99852

What's your target price @Boggo?

 

[Boggo]

What's your target price @Boggo?

Firstly, stop placement is more important than target projections imo.

The more erratic the stock movement the more likely an inaccurate projection but based on the 1.272 (127.2) projection around $3.43 ($3.05 minimum ??) for PNV.

This method is unreliable on volatile stocks, usually much more accurate on large caps and the likes of TLS etc, gets distorted with the profit takers/sell offs etc on fast movers.
Similiar to EW, it probably works about 50% of the time on 50% of stocks, not suited to speccies imo.

An explanation of the process on here with chart example...
http://chart-formations.com/fibonacci/projections.aspx

 

[tinhat]

Firstly, stop placement is more important than target projections imo.

The more erratic the stock movement the more likely an inaccurate projection but based on the 1.272 (127.2) projection around $3.43 ($3.05 minimum ??) for PNV.

This method is unreliable on volatile stocks, usually much more accurate on large caps and the likes of TLS etc, gets distorted with the profit takers/sell offs etc on fast movers.
Similiar to EW, it probably works about 50% of the time on 50% of stocks, not suited to speccies imo.

An explanation of the process on here with chart example...
http://chart-formations.com/fibonacci/projections.aspx

Thanks. Did you know that the golden ratio is the most irrational possible number? That is why it is so important in nature because if you distribute something at intervals calculated using the golden ratio you get the most even distribution because no rational number will clash with it. All the nodes in the mandelbrot set are distributed and structured according to the fibonacci ratio (the golden mean). I learnt that on the weekend while I was trying to learn what imaginary numbers are and how they work.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

there's a gushing interview with Alan Kohler that can be viewed on the PNV website, as well as Eureka and whatever other business promotional websites AK is involved with.

Paul Kennan, the CEO, talks the PNV book well. Kohler is well briefed, or at least fed the right questions that the interviewee can expand upon. I have some reservations about this form of promotional exercise (aka journalism) as the relationship isn't spelled out. I would only imagine it's not uncompensated. That said, as grist to the mill, it has some uses. There is some interesting stuff (for the lay person) that spells out how PNV is differentiated from, say, AVH; but is that just talking the book?

(I generally watch the SP around this time, to see whether it's real or just the gullible piling in)

 

[Boggo]

These bio/pharma/medical stocks (a way of describing them, to me they start out as chart patterns) seem to be doing well.

In addition to PNV I also hold RMD and PAR in my smsf and they have led the way so far.

 

[Miner]

I think this a good example of getting back into a stock when you think the timing is right. Too often, I forget all about a stock that I have sold out of because I tend to subconsciously psychologically "walk away" from them as if they are past girlfriends. Selling a stock is not the same as breaking-up with your girlfriend. Stocks are more like friends with benefits!

Curiously if you have broken with girlfriends as many times as you broke with shares LOL

 

[Miner]

there's a gushing interview with Alan Kohler that can be viewed on the PNV website, as well as Eureka and whatever other business promotional websites AK is involved with.

Paul Kennan, the CEO, talks the PNV book well. Kohler is well briefed, or at least fed the right questions that the interviewee can expand upon. I have some reservations about this form of promotional exercise (aka journalism) as the relationship isn't spelled out. I would only imagine it's not uncompensated. That said, as grist to the mill, it has some uses. There is some interesting stuff (for the lay person) that spells out how PNV is differentiated from, say, AVH; but is that just talking the book?

(I generally watch the SP around this time, to see whether it's real or just the gullible piling in)

Good point Donna. I do subscribe Eureka Report and have a great respect for Alan (also connected with my LinkedIn profile ). But you are right, no where Alan has said if or how much he was paid for the interview. PNV published the interview on aSX and rightly it catapulled the SP in a depressed market. I liked the product because first thought came to my mind if Fiona Wood (past Australian of the year and a great burn specialist from WA) used their products. The interview said yes. So I am interested to watch it more and know other view too. DNH

 

[tinhat]

there's a gushing interview with Alan Kohler that can be viewed on the PNV website, as well as Eureka and whatever other business promotional websites AK is involved with.

Paul Kennan, the CEO, talks the PNV book well. Kohler is well briefed, or at least fed the right questions that the interviewee can expand upon. I have some reservations about this form of promotional exercise (aka journalism) as the relationship isn't spelled out. I would only imagine it's not uncompensated. That said, as grist to the mill, it has some uses. There is some interesting stuff (for the lay person) that spells out how PNV is differentiated from, say, AVH; but is that just talking the book?

(I generally watch the SP around this time, to see whether it's real or just the gullible piling in)

Whatsmore, the company released the article to the market in an ASX announcement marked price sensitive!

 

[Dona Ferentes]

What's more, the company released the article to the market in an ASX announcement marked price sensitive!

true, there was some market sensitive info of a type, I guess. Best to be cautious.

Though the relationship wasn't too intimate, the intro actually reads:

PolyNovo CEO Paul Brennan was interviewed by Alan Kholer

 

[tech/a]

POP!!!

 

[bigdog]

PNV current share price down 21% lower to $2.38.

PNV reports a net loss for the half year of $2.42 million, a 26 per cent increase from last year.

PolyNovo has cautioned investors that it still expects its revenue to be lumpy, despite achieving a massive 80 per cent jump in revenue to $10.2 million and flagging accelerating sales.

However large increase in employee related expenses and corporate expenses saw the company's loss widen from last year.

ASX announcements today

Half Yearly Report and Accounts report uploaded below

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